证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 利润同比高增，各板块盈利性持续改善 [Table_Title2] 众安在线(6060.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 6060.HK | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 22.75/9.29 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 333.03 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 20.36 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 332.85 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 647.81 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 8 月 20 日，众安在线发布 2025 年半年报。2025 年上半年，公司实现归母净利润 6.68 亿元，同比增长 1103.5%，主要归因于保险业务的利润提升、ZA Bank 的扭亏为盈和科技业务的净亏损大幅收窄。公司总保费收 入 166.61 亿元，同比+9.3%；承保综合成本率 95.6%，同比优 ...

2025 年 08 月 22 日 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 耿驰政（联系人） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 （1）科技成长+自主可控+军工：液冷、机器人、游戏、AI 应用、军工（导弹、 无人机、卫星、深海科技），此外关注与指数共振度较高的金融科技与券商板块。 （2）受益于"PPI 边际改善预期+部分低位补涨"的顺周期品种扩散：钢铁、化 工、有色金属、建材有望受益，保险、白酒、地产或存估值修复机会。 （3）具备反内卷弹性、更"广谱"方向：本轮反内卷的范围已超越传统周期品， 光伏、锂电、工程机械、医疗、港股恒生互联网等部分制造与成长方向同样具备 中期潜力。 gengchizheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050007 证券化率指标—判断指数牛估值空间的一种参考 本轮行情与分子端盈利表现出现一定错位。我们在 2025 年 7 月 12 日发布的报告 《剖析市场突破的核心动力》中指出，从交易行为、资金流向到制度支持，多重 因素共同构筑了市场上行的内在基础。在宏观预期相对缺位的背景下，本轮行情 与以往典型的"指数牛"存在相似特 ...

Group 1 - ZhongAn Online (06060) opened over 6% higher post-earnings, reaching a price of 20 HKD with a trading volume of 54.862 million HKD [1] - For the six months ending June 30, 2025, ZhongAn reported insurance service revenue of 681 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 96.67% [1] - Shareholder profit attributable to the company reached 668 million RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 1103.54%, primarily due to improved insurance business profits and ZA Bank's turnaround [1] Group 2 - ZA Bank achieved a historic turnaround in the first half of 2025, reporting a net profit of 49 million HKD [2] - During the reporting period, ZA Bank's net income was approximately 457 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 82.1% [2] - ZA Bank's non-interest income surged by 272.1% to 160 million HKD, with a net interest margin of 2.38% [2] - The bank is set to launch Hong Kong stock trading services and has seen a 125.3% year-on-year growth in Invest customer assets [2] - ZA Bank is recognized as one of the most comprehensive digital banks in Hong Kong, offering a one-stop investment and wealth management experience [2]

Core Insights - AIA Group reported a 14% year-on-year increase in new business value, reaching $2.838 billion, with a new business value margin rising to 57.7% [1] - Annualized new premiums increased by 8% to $4.942 billion, while post-tax operating profit rose by 6% to $3.609 billion [1] - The group's insurance services performance grew by 19% to $3.517 billion, driven by the compound effect of new business and positive claims experience [1] Business Performance - The contribution of contract service margin to post-tax operating profit was $3.043 billion, leading to a 10.3% growth in basic contract service margin, which reached $61.38 billion at the end of the period [1] - Basic free surplus generated was $3.569 billion, with earnings per share increasing by 10% [1] Distribution Channels - New business value from agency channels grew by 17%, attributed to the application of generative artificial intelligence and technology investments, resulting in increased active agents and productivity [1] - New business value from partner distribution channels rose by 8% [1] Growth Outlook - The company remains optimistic about long-term growth drivers such as the continuous growth of wealth in Asia, low insurance penetration rates, and limited social welfare coverage [1] - AIA Group is confident in achieving a compound annual growth rate of 9% to 11% in post-tax operating profit per share over the next three years [1]

Core Viewpoint - W.R. Berkley Corporation has shown positive performance in its recent earnings report, with operating income surpassing estimates, but there are signs of downward trends in estimates and scores indicating potential challenges ahead [2][11][12]. Financial Performance - The second-quarter 2025 operating income was $1.05 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.03 per share, marking a 1% year-over-year increase [2]. - Net premiums written reached $3.4 billion, reflecting a 9.9% year-over-year growth, although it fell short of the estimated $3.6 billion [3]. - Operating revenues totaled $3.6 billion, up 7.9% year over year, beating the consensus estimate by 1.8% [3]. - Net investment income grew by 1.9% to $379.3 million, driven by higher yields on the domestic fixed-maturity portfolio [4]. - Total expenses increased by 11.4% to $3.1 billion, primarily due to higher losses and loss expenses [5]. Underwriting and Loss Ratios - The loss ratio deteriorated by 50 basis points to 63.1, while the expense ratio remained flat at 28.3 [5]. - Catastrophe losses amounted to $99.2 million, higher than the $89.7 million from the previous year [5]. - The consolidated combined ratio, a measure of underwriting profitability, worsened by 50 basis points to 92.1 [5]. Segment Performance - The Insurance segment's net premiums written increased by 7.2% year over year to $3 billion, driven by higher premiums across various lines [6]. - The Reinsurance & Monoline Excess segment saw a 6.8% year-over-year increase in net premiums written to $337.7 million, although it was below the estimated $367.1 million [7]. Financial Position - As of June 30, 2025, total assets were valued at $42.7 billion, a 5.5% increase from year-end 2024 [8]. - Book value per share rose by 6.8% to $24.50 [8]. - Cash flow from operations for the first half of 2025 was $1.5 billion, down 11.1% year over year [9]. Market Outlook - There has been a downward trend in estimates for W.R. Berkley, with a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [11][13]. - The company currently holds a subpar Growth Score of D and a Momentum Score of F, with an aggregate VGM Score of F [12]. Industry Comparison - W.R. Berkley is part of the Zacks Insurance - Property and Casualty industry, where Travelers reported a revenue increase of 6.7% year over year, indicating competitive performance within the sector [14].

Group 1 - The report suggests an industry allocation strategy termed "4+1," focusing on technology growth, self-control, and military sectors, including liquid cooling, robotics, gaming, AI applications, and military technologies such as missiles, drones, satellites, and deep-sea technology. Additionally, it highlights the fintech and brokerage sectors due to their high correlation with indices [1] - The cyclical sectors benefiting from the expectation of marginal improvement in PPI and some low-level rebound include steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and building materials, with potential valuation recovery opportunities in insurance, liquor, and real estate [1] - The report identifies sectors with anti-involution elasticity and broader potential, indicating that the current anti-involution trend extends beyond traditional cyclical industries, with mid-term potential in solar energy, lithium batteries, engineering machinery, healthcare, and certain manufacturing and growth directions in Hong Kong's Hang Seng Internet [1] - Structural opportunities for overseas expansion are noted, particularly due to the easing of China-Europe trade relations, benefiting high-export categories like automobiles and wind power, as well as niche exports such as snacks [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable dividend stocks, gold, and optimized high-dividend assets for foundational investment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance in the second half of the year, outperforming the Hong Kong stock market, driven by positive changes in market liquidity and supportive policies [2][3]. A-share and Hong Kong Stock Market Analysis - A-share indices have reached nearly four-year highs, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3700 mark and daily trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2]. - The A-share market has seen year-to-date gains of 10% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 16% for the total A-share index, while the Hong Kong market has recorded increases of 5.0% and 4.2% for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, respectively [2]. - The improvement in A-shares is attributed to a better capital structure and increased market participation, supported by policies aimed at reducing competition and enhancing profitability [2][3]. Sector Analysis - A-shares have a higher proportion of profits from the midstream manufacturing sector (12.3%) compared to Hong Kong (5.8%), while both markets show similar contributions from consumer sectors [3]. - The financial sector dominates both markets, with over 25% in A-shares and 30% in Hong Kong, while A-shares have significant contributions from consumer, technology, and midstream manufacturing sectors [3]. Hard Technology vs. Soft Innovation - A-shares excel in hard technology sectors like semiconductors and electronics, benefiting from high industry demand and policy support, contributing approximately 3.5% to overall profits [4]. - Hong Kong's soft innovation sector, particularly in internet companies, has gained traction due to the AI technology revolution, contributing 13.5% to profits [4]. Consumer Trends - A-shares focus on traditional consumer sectors like food and beverage, with stable profit contributions, while Hong Kong has seen a rise in new consumption models, particularly in dining and retail [5]. - The A-share liquor industry has consistently contributed around 2.5% to overall profits, while new consumption sectors in Hong Kong have experienced over 200% profit growth in the past three years [5]. New Energy Sector - A-shares are strong in the upstream new energy sector, particularly in battery and photovoltaic equipment, although profitability has faced challenges due to supply-demand imbalances [6]. - Hong Kong's new energy sector is primarily focused on downstream electric vehicle manufacturers, which have shown resilience and growth potential [6]. Pharmaceutical Sector Comparison - The A-share pharmaceutical sector has a more complete industry chain, contributing 3% to overall profits, while Hong Kong focuses on innovative drug development, with profits increasing from 0.4% in 2022 to 1.6% in 2024 [7]. Future Market Outlook - The influx of new capital into the A-share market is expected to continue, with A-shares likely to outperform Hong Kong stocks if domestic investors increase their participation and core industry pressures ease [14][15]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high growth potential, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy, particularly in light of supportive policies [15].

Core Viewpoint - The company *ST Tianmao plans to voluntarily delist from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange due to significant uncertainties in its business restructuring, which may have a major impact on the company and its shareholders [1][2] Group 1: Company Actions and Financial Situation - The company announced a cash option for shareholders at a price of 1.6 yuan per share, with an estimated total cost not exceeding 26.07 billion yuan to acquire up to approximately 1.629 billion shares, representing about 33% of the total share capital [1] - The company has been under delisting risk warning since July 8 due to failure to disclose its 2024 annual report and the first quarter report for 2025 within the stipulated time [1][2] - The stock price has significantly declined from over 3 yuan to as low as 1.35 yuan, currently standing at 1.58 yuan as of August 13 [2] Group 2: Investor Decision-Making - Investors face three scenarios for decision-making: significant losses reported, normal operations of the main subsidiary despite losses, or severe losses necessitating drastic measures like delisting [3] - The lack of timely financial reports has severely limited investors' ability to make rational decisions [3][4] Group 3: Risks and Concerns - There is a concern that the company's financial difficulties may lead to a situation where the actual controller acquires shares at a low cost due to the forced selling of shares by investors facing delisting risks [4] - The total assets of Tianmao Group exceed 280 billion yuan, with financial investments amounting to 122.9 billion yuan, indicating that slight changes in discount rates could lead to significant value fluctuations [4] - The planned acquisition price implies a total valuation of only 7.8 billion yuan, raising questions about the fairness of the transaction [4]

Market Strategy - The market experienced a pullback after a rise, with digital currency sectors showing activity [4][6] - The overall A-share market index fell by 0.86%, closing at 5751.93 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.46% to 3666.44 points [6][9] - The hard technology sector outperformed, while the innovative small and medium enterprises sector lagged behind [6][9] Industry Dynamics - Over 100 cities have opened road rights for unmanned delivery vehicles, which are expected to become mainstream in the future [5][23] - In July 2025, the national railway passenger and freight volumes showed steady growth, with passenger volume reaching 455 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [5][25] - The insurance sector saw significant activity, with Minsheng Insurance increasing its stake in Zheshang Bank to 5% [5][27] Company Tracking - Shuanghui Development reported a total revenue of 28.503 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.00%, with a net profit of 2.323 billion yuan, up 1.17% [5][32] - Aoshikang achieved a revenue of 2.565 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.43%, although net profit decreased by 11.96% [5][35] - The company’s revenue from meat products declined by 9.42% to 11.207 billion yuan, while slaughtering business revenue increased by 3.33% to 13.769 billion yuan [5][33]

Core Viewpoint - Foreign capital is continuously increasing its investment in China, with notable examples such as Norges Bank's significant stake in ZhongAn Online, reflecting a broader trend of foreign investment in Chinese assets driven by various favorable economic factors [1][6][11]. Group 1: Foreign Investment in ZhongAn Online - Norges Bank increased its holdings in ZhongAn Online by 1.3481 million shares at an average price of HKD 17.7718, totaling HKD 23.958 million, raising its stake to 5.07% of H-shares and 4.92% of total shares, making it the fifth largest shareholder [1][4]. - Following the increase in holdings by Norges Bank, the top five shareholders of ZhongAn Online are now China Ping An, Shenzhen Jiadexin Investment Co., Ant Group, Tencent, and Norges Bank [3][4]. - Ant Group reduced its stake in ZhongAn Online from 10.01% to 7.63% after selling 33.7548 million shares, while Tencent also reduced its holdings, leading to a reconfiguration of the major shareholders [3][4]. Group 2: Performance and Market Position - ZhongAn Online's total insurance premium income for the first half of the year was RMB 13.918 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and it is projected to reach RMB 33.417 billion in total premiums for 2024, representing a growth of 13.3% [5]. - The company has improved its ranking in the domestic property insurance industry to eighth place based on total premiums [5]. Group 3: Factors Driving Foreign Investment in China - The attractiveness of Chinese assets to foreign investors has increased due to several factors, including a robust domestic economy with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year and a significant contribution from domestic demand [7][8]. - The ongoing opening and deepening of financial markets, such as the optimization of interconnectivity mechanisms like Stock Connect and Bond Connect, have made it easier for foreign capital to participate [7][8]. - The current valuation of Chinese assets is appealing, with the MSCI China Index trading at a forward P/E ratio of 12.5, significantly lower than the 28 times of the Nasdaq, prompting a shift of global capital towards emerging markets [8][11]. Group 4: Investment Trends and Preferences - Foreign capital is showing a preference for both stocks and bonds, with a net increase of USD 10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of 2025, reversing a two-year trend of net selling [10]. - There is a notable focus on high-dividend assets, particularly in sectors like banking, electricity, and utilities, as well as growth areas such as semiconductors, new energy vehicles, and AI computing [10].