稳定增长预期

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华泰宏观:预计3季度末至4季度初或将通过增发特别国债、上调赤字等方式多管齐下稳定增长预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 23:37
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that after a proactive fiscal approach in the first half of the year, there may be a need for timely reinforcement in the second half, with a focus on the sustainability of broad fiscal policies and the comprehensive impact of external demand fluctuations [1] - The sustainability of fiscal stimulus may face certain uncertainties, contrasting with last year's delayed government bond issuance, where only a net issuance of 4 trillion yuan occurred in the first seven months, while 7.3 trillion yuan was issued from August to December [1] - It is anticipated that from late Q3 to early Q4, measures such as issuing special government bonds and increasing the deficit will be employed to stabilize growth expectations, with a particular emphasis on the effective impact of new policy financial tools on investment [1] Group 2 - If new policy financial tools are accelerated and even expanded in Q3, they will play a crucial role in supporting the expansion of "quasi-fiscal" efforts [1]