Core Viewpoint - The China Agricultural Development Bank has successfully completed a task of deploying 150 billion yuan in new policy financial tools, supporting 881 projects and expected to drive a total investment of 1.93 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Implementation and Supervision - The Agricultural Development Bank established working groups at both the headquarters and provincial branches to prepare for fund deployment following the issuance of relevant implementation plans [2] - The supervisory team from the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and National Supervisory Commission has been actively involved, creating a supervision work plan tailored to the characteristics of the new policy financial tools [2] - Key areas of supervision include policy execution, client selection, project screening, fund usage, risk prevention, and maintaining integrity [2] Group 2: Risk Management and Education - The supervisory team emphasizes the importance of risk management, focusing on the integrity risks associated with the concentrated power and intensive funding of the new policy financial tools [3] - Educational initiatives are in place to inform staff about past violations, using real cases to prevent issues such as accepting gifts or undue influence [3] - The supervisory team aims to create a robust oversight mechanism to ensure smooth project operations and secure fund deployment [3] Group 3: Post-Deployment Management - After the fund deployment phase, the focus will shift to post-deployment management, ensuring compliance in fund usage and enhancing policy effectiveness [4] - The supervisory team will continue to monitor key aspects of project management and fund compliance to ensure the new policy financial tools serve as a quality project for economic promotion and public benefit [4]

导语 增量政策已经陆续出台。 今年以来中国财政政策更加积极，财政支出保持一定力度，推动经济持续回升向好。 根据财政部最新数据测算，今年前10个月，广义财政（即全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收 入约22.1万亿元，同比增长约0.2%；广义财政支出约30.7万亿元，同比增长约5.2%；广义财政支出超过 收入约8.6万亿元，同比增长约21%。 财政部数据显示，今年前10个月，全国一般公共预算支出中的农林水支出、城乡社区支出分别同比下滑 11.7%和7.3%，交通运输支出与去年同期基本持平。 不过，除了全国一般公共预算资金支持基建外，在地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等支撑之下，政 府性基金支出保持较快增长，支持了一大批重大项目开工建设，稳投资稳经济。 财政部数据显示，今年前10个月，全国政府性基金预算支出约8.1万亿元，同比增长15.4%。这主要是各 级财政持续加快债券资金使用，地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债、中央金融机构注资特别国债等资 金共支出4.54万亿元。 尽管前10个月广义财政支出保持一定增长，不过第三季度支出增速持续放缓，其中10月份广义财政支出 增速出现两位数下滑。根据今年初中央与地方预算报 ...

2025.11.21 本文字数：1612，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈益刊 今年以来中国财政政策更加积极，财政支出保持一定力度，推动经济持续回升向好。 根据财政部最新数据测算，今年前10个月，广义财政（即全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）收 入约22.1万亿元，同比增长约0.2%；广义财政支出约30.7万亿元，同比增长约5.2%；广义财政支出超过 收入约8.6万亿元，同比增长约21%。 广义财政支出规模及增速，是衡量财政政策积极程度的关键指标。在今年以来广义财政收入基本与去年 同期持平情况下，广义财政支出保持5.2%的增速，明显高于收入增速。这说明积极财政政策发力，财 政支出保持一定力度。广义财政支出增速与前三季度经济增速（5.2%）持平，支持了经济平稳运行。 从财政支出结构来看，今年财政资金明显向民生领域倾斜，这也与今年政府工作报告提出推动更多资金 资源"投资于人"相契合。 与民生关联最为紧密的是全国一般公共预算账本。根据财政部数据，今年前10个月，全国一般公共预算 支出约22.6万亿元，同比增长2%。其中与民生关联最为紧密的社会保障和就业支出（3.8万亿元）、教 育支出（3.4万亿元）、卫 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's fiscal policy has become more proactive this year, with fiscal spending maintaining a certain level of intensity, which supports the continuous recovery of the economy [3]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first ten months of this year, the broad fiscal revenue was approximately 22.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 0.2%, while broad fiscal expenditure was about 30.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [3]. - The broad fiscal expenditure exceeded revenue by approximately 8.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21% [3]. Fiscal Spending Structure - The structure of fiscal spending has shown a clear tilt towards the livelihood sector, aligning with the government's report advocating for more resources to be "invested in people" [4]. - In the first ten months, the general public budget expenditure was approximately 22.6 trillion yuan, with social security and employment spending reaching 3.8 trillion yuan, education spending at 3.4 trillion yuan, and health spending at 1.7 trillion yuan, all showing growth rates above the average of 2% [4]. Infrastructure Spending - Due to increased funding directed towards livelihood, infrastructure spending in the general public budget has seen an overall decline [5]. - Expenditures on agriculture, forestry, and water, as well as urban and rural community spending, decreased by 11.7% and 7.3% respectively [7]. Government Fund Expenditure - Government fund budget expenditure was approximately 8.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%, primarily due to accelerated use of bond funds [7]. - The issuance of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds has supported the commencement of numerous major projects, stabilizing investment and the economy [7]. Future Fiscal Policy Measures - To maintain a certain level of fiscal spending, new policies have been introduced, including allowing local governments to issue an additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds [9]. - As of mid-November, over 10 billion yuan in new special bonds had been issued, surpassing the total for October [9].

当前，强化金融保障促进民间投资仍需打通落地"最后一公里"。部分地区存在项目审批流程冗长、金融 工具申报细则模糊等问题，导致政策红利未能充分释放。对此，需进一步细化新型政策性金融工具的适 用范围与申报流程，让民间资本看得懂、用得上；同时，推动地方建立民间投资项目专班服务机制，将 中央预算内投资的支持与项目落地进度挂钩，避免资金"趴在账上"，确保政策红利精准滴灌至经营主 体。 民间投资对稳定经济增长具有重要作用，金融保障则是激活这一作用的"催化剂"。此次《若干措施》的 部署，回应了民间资本的现实诉求，为高质量发展注入了市场活力。随着新型金融工具精准落地，政策 协同持续深化，民间资本也将在发展新质生产力、推动产业升级中发挥更大作用。（本文来源：经济日 报 作者：金观平） 政策协同是金融保障落地见效的关键支撑。《若干措施》的金融支持并非单兵突进，而是与准入开放、 服务优化形成组合拳：在准入端，政策明确清理服务业经营主体的不合理限制，严禁在环保、质检等标 准外增设门槛，让民间资本进得来；在服务端，要求银行业金融机构制定民营企业年度服务目标，落实 普惠信贷尽职免责制度，从机制上打消金融机构的放贷顾虑；在项目端，中央预算内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sharp decline in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily attributed to three factors: high base effect, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing [3][80]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 18,649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 22,582.5 billion yuan, up 2% year-on-year [2][79]. - In October 2025, broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, a drop of 21.4 percentage points compared to September, while broad fiscal revenue fell by 0.6%, down 3.8 percentage points from September [3][8][80]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%, indicating a historically low level for October [3][8][80]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Expenditure Decline - The decline in October's broad fiscal expenditure is partly due to the high base effect from the same period in 2024, where expenditure had increased significantly [3][13][80]. - Government debt net financing in October 2025 was at a historically low level, with a year-on-year decrease of 5,602 billion yuan, which negatively impacted both social financing growth and fiscal expenditure growth [4][19][81]. - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other financial instruments, has also contributed to the decline in expenditure growth [4][19][81]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Support Measures - As new incremental funds are deployed, the support from fiscal and quasi-fiscal measures for the economy is expected to accelerate towards the end of the year [5][82]. - Two types of incremental funds have been established to address the weakening fiscal expenditure pressure in the fourth quarter: 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments and 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits [4][24][82]. - The focus of these funds includes digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumption, particularly supporting economically significant provinces [4][24][82]. Group 4: Revenue Trends - Broad fiscal revenue in October 2025 decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, with government fund revenue dropping significantly by 18.4% [6][28][83]. - General fiscal revenue showed a slight increase of 3.2% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue saw a substantial decline of 33% [40][83]. - The completion rate for broad fiscal revenue in October was 9.3%, higher than 9% in 2024 and the five-year average of 8.8% [6][28][83].

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure was 225,825 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2%[6] Fiscal Spending Decline - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure plummeted to -19.1%, a decrease of 21.4 percentage points compared to September[1] - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%[7] Factors Contributing to Decline - The decline in fiscal expenditure is attributed to three main factors: high base effect from 2024, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing[1] - Broad fiscal revenue in October fell by -0.6%, a drop of 3.8 percentage points from September, with government fund revenue down by -18.4%[4] Government Debt Financing - Government net financing in October 2025 decreased by 5,602 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the slowdown in fiscal expenditure growth[3] - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and support for commercial banks, has been largely completed by mid-August[3] Future Outlook - With the implementation of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and another 500 billion yuan in local debt limits, there may be a recovery in fiscal expenditure growth towards the end of the year[4] - The support from "quasi-fiscal" funds is expected to accelerate as these funds are deployed in key sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence[4]

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure reached 225,825 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%[6] Fiscal Spending Decline - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure dropped to -19.1%, a decrease of 21.4 percentage points from September[1] - The completion rate of the broad fiscal expenditure budget in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%[7] Factors Contributing to Decline - The decline in fiscal expenditure was attributed to a high base effect from 2024, a drop in revenue, and a decrease in government debt financing[1] - Broad fiscal revenue in October fell by -0.6%, a decline of 3.8 percentage points compared to September[4] Government Debt Financing - Government net financing in October 2025 decreased by 5,602 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the slowdown in fiscal expenditure growth[12] - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other projects, limited the available financing for October[12] Future Outlook - With the introduction of 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and local debt limits, there may be a recovery in fiscal expenditure growth towards the end of the year[18] - The support from "quasi-fiscal" funds is expected to accelerate as these funds are deployed in key sectors like digital economy and artificial intelligence[14]

Core Viewpoint - The sharp decline in broad fiscal expenditure is primarily attributed to three factors: high base effect, revenue decline, and a decrease in government debt financing [3][80]. Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first ten months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 186,490 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 225,825 billion yuan, growing by 2% [2][79]. - In October 2025, broad fiscal expenditure decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, a drop of 21.4 percentage points compared to September, while broad fiscal revenue fell by 0.6%, down 3.8 percentage points from September [3][80]. - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in October was 5.6%, lower than 7.2% in 2024 and the five-year average of 6.2%, indicating a historically low level for October [3][80]. Group 2: Factors Contributing to Expenditure Decline - The decline in October's broad fiscal expenditure was partly due to the high base effect from the same month in 2024, where expenditure had surged by 20.4% year-on-year [3][13]. - Government debt net financing in October 2025 was significantly lower, with a year-on-year decrease of 5,602 billion yuan, which negatively impacted both social financing growth and fiscal expenditure growth [4][19][81]. - The rapid use of fiscal funds in 2025, including special bonds and other financial instruments, has been largely completed by mid-August, limiting the available resources for October [4][19][81]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Support Measures - To address the weakening fiscal expenditure in the fourth quarter, two types of incremental funds have been introduced: 5,000 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments and another 5,000 billion yuan in local government debt limits [4][24][82]. - The implementation of these funds is expected to enhance the support for the economy towards the end of the year, potentially leading to a recovery in broad fiscal expenditure growth [5][82]. - The focus of the new policy financial instruments includes digital economy, artificial intelligence, and consumption, particularly aimed at supporting major economic provinces [4][24][82].

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度报告 | 中国宏观 宏观深度报告 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 18 日 财政支出增速放缓，高基数、年内节奏前置是主因 ——2025 年 1-10 月财政数据解读 核心观点 2025 年 10 月财政支出速度放缓，收入增速保持一定强度，我们认为财政支出增速放 缓较多的原因在于，一方面年内财政支出前置发力后阶段性退坡，另一方面在于去年 同期高基数影响（去年 9 月 26 日政治局会议后，财政支出发力较快形成高基数）。 10 月全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 3.2%（前值 2.6%），主要与税收收入加快有关； 10 月全国一般公共预算支出同比增速为-9.8%（前值 3.1%）。10 月第二本账（政府性 基金预算）承压，其中 10 月全国政府性基金预算收入同比增速录得-18.4%（前值 5.6%），而政府性基金支出增速放缓至-38.2%。 综合来看，广义财政（全国一般公共预算+政府性基金预算）收支处于再平衡的切换节 点，10 月广义财政收入端增速有所回落，支出端增速放缓较多。1-10 月广义财政预算 收入完成度 60.5%（10 月广义财政预算收入当月同比增速-0.6%），完成度与 2 ...