1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The silicon iron market has weak supply - demand, neutral inventory, high costs, and profit losses. It is expected that in December, production will decline compared to the same period, and the price will fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5650 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro**: This heating season, energy supply and demand are generally balanced, and there is sufficient resource supply. As of November 26, the coal inventory of national unified - regulated power plants exceeded 230 million tons, with an available days of about 35. On November 24, South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese medium - thick and alloy steel hot - rolled plates for 5 years. From January to October, the steel industry's profit was 10.532 billion yuan, turning from loss to profit year - on - year [7]. - **Overseas**: Federal Reserve Governor Waller said the US job market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December 9 - 10 meeting [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Market transactions are mainly for terminal rigid demand restocking, prices have fallen, and inventory has continued to decline this period. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 320 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 525 yuan/ton. In November, HBIS's tender price for 75B silicon iron was 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous round [7]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the silicon iron main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - **Strategy**: In terms of new production capacity, there will be no new capacity put into production this year. Silicon iron manufacturers are suffering obvious losses, and it is expected that December production will decline compared to the same period. The country will continue the policy of reducing crude steel production in 2025, and the subsequent crude steel output will continue to decline. Coke profit has limited room for significant improvement, and alloys are likely to remain in a loss state [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of November 28, the position volume of silicon iron futures contracts was 494,700 lots, an increase of 46,100 lots compared to the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract month spread was - 30, a decrease of 4 points. The number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 10,907, an increase of 2631 compared to the previous period. The price of silicon iron in Ningxia was 5180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [13][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 28, the basis of silicon iron was - 290 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 points compared to the previous period [24]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply**: This week (November 27), the national average operating rate (capacity utilization) of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 33.41%, a decrease of 0.40% compared to the previous week. The daily average output was 15,320 tons, a decrease of 0.97% (150 tons) compared to the previous week. The weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 19,660 tons, an increase of 0.60% compared to the previous week, and the national silicon iron production (weekly supply) was 107,200 tons [28]. - **Inventory**: This week (November 27), the national inventory of 60 independent silicon iron enterprises was 71,830 tons, a decrease of 1.67% (1220 tons) compared to the previous week. Inventory in Inner Mongolia decreased by 2000 tons, while that in Ningxia increased by 400 tons, in Gansu by 150 tons, in Shaanxi by 300 tons, and in Qinghai decreased by 70 tons, and remained unchanged in Sichuan [32]. - **Upstream**: As of November 24, the electricity price in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia for silicon manganese and silicon iron remained unchanged. As of November 27, the domestic market price of medium - grade semi - coke in Inner Mongolia and the tax - included price of semi - coke in Shenmu remained unchanged. The spot production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5444 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase, and in Ningxia was 5625 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase. The spot profit of silicon iron in Ningxia was - 525 yuan/ton, a 11.23% decrease [36][40]. - **Downstream**: This week, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 8100 tons compared to the same period last year. From January to October, the total export volume of Chinese silicon iron (Si > 55%) was 317,337.522 tons, a decrease of 8.85% year - on - year [43].