兴发集团 20251212 摘要 兴发集团 2025 年前三季度营收 237.81 亿元，同比增长 7.8%；归母净 利润 11.18 亿元，同比略增。第三季度营收和归母净利润环比分别增长 接近 24%和 42%，显示增长势头。 矿石采选业务毛利率高达 75%，贡献近一半利润，计划到"十五五"末 产能提升至 1,300 万吨。特种化学品和农药业务收入均约 40 亿元，利 润贡献显著。新能源材料板块加速扭亏，预计 2026 年全年盈利。 有机硅行业协同提价，草甘膦价格波动大但预期明年旺季补库存将带动 上涨，这两个周期性产品预计明年对公司业绩产生积极影响。肥料业务 受出口配额影响承压，但公司预计明年情况不会更差。 磷肥市场座谈会提出保供稳价措施，短期内可能抑制硫磺价格，但长期 看，受国际因素影响，硫磺价格仍可能保持高位。预计 2026 年磷肥出 口时间窗口将后移，国家加强国内供应保障。 磷酸铁产能持续扩张，现有 10 万吨产能已满负荷，明年 1 月和 7 月将 分别新增 5 万吨和 10 万吨产能。与比亚迪签订每年 8 万吨磷酸铁锂代 工协议，保障稳定收益。 麻坪磷矿已投产，预计 2026 年产能达 60%-80 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月12日 川恒股份（002895.SZ） 优于大市 磷酸盐主业稳根基，磷矿石资源助增长 资源为基，构建"矿化一体"全产业链壁垒。川恒股份是国内磷化工行业资 源型领军企业，核心竞争力源于优质磷矿资源。公司通过控股福麟矿业 （90%）、黔源地勘（58.5%）及参股天一矿业（40%），布局小坝、新桥、 鸡公岭、老虎洞等高品位矿山，2025 年权益磷矿石产能达 320 万吨，2027 年后将突破 850 万吨。中国以全球约 5%的磷矿储量支撑近半产量，资源禀赋 差、环保约束强，稀缺属性持续强化，为公司提供长期成本优势和战略安全。 磷酸为核心中间体，高纯工艺构筑差异化竞争力。磷酸是磷化工产业链的核 心中间产品，公司依托自有高品位磷矿与半水湿法工艺，生产出铁、铝、镁 等杂质含量显著低于行业标准的高品质磷酸，涵盖工业级、食品级等规格。 广西扶绥基地拥有商品磷酸 20 万吨/年与净化磷酸 10 万吨/年产能，受益于 下游需求刚性增长与供给趋紧，公司磷酸业务毛利率显著高于同业。 饲料级磷酸二氢钙全球龙头，供需格局向好。公司饲料级磷酸二氢钙总设计 产能达 51 万吨/年，为全球最大的生产商。当前行 ...

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Core Insights - Yunnan Province aims to enhance its phosphorus industry, targeting a production value exceeding 100 billion yuan by 2027 and 120 billion yuan by 2030 [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - Yunnan's phosphorus industry is nationally leading, with significant production of phosphate rock and phosphorus chemicals, supported by specialized industrial parks and leading companies like Yuntianhua and Yunnan Xiangfeng [1] - The province faces challenges such as low comprehensive utilization of phosphorus resources, insufficient sustainable resource assurance, and pressure for green development [1] Group 2: Development Goals - By 2027, a modern phosphorus chemical industry system is expected to be established, with over 80% comprehensive utilization rate of phosphogypsum and the emergence of specialized "little giant" enterprises [2] - By 2030, the province aims for a phosphorus chemical output exceeding 120 billion yuan, with an increase in specialized enterprises and the formation of multiple industry clusters [2] Group 3: Strategic Directions - The development strategy includes strengthening the new energy battery industry by integrating the phosphorus supply chain from mining to battery materials [2] - Expansion of high-value phosphorus chemical products is prioritized, focusing on high-purity chemicals and functional materials, alongside promoting advanced purification technologies [3] Group 4: Resource Utilization - Emphasis on recovering associated fluorine and silicon resources from phosphate mining, with advancements in recovery technologies and the development of new fluorine-containing materials [3] Group 5: Implementation Measures - The implementation plan outlines seven key tasks addressing innovation, resource supply, structural adjustments, and green safety to ensure the industry's growth [3][4] - Five support measures are established to enhance work mechanisms, resource assurance, funding support, talent development, and industrial ecology [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with a proposed interim dividend of 2 CNY per 10 shares, totaling 365 million CNY [7] - The increase in phosphate fertilizer and urea prices, along with the significant premium from phosphate exports, is expected to enhance profitability [7] - The company is focusing on optimizing its debt structure while continuing to develop its core phosphate chemical business [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 61,800 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.4% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 6,023 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a 12.9% year-on-year increase [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 3.30 CNY [6] Performance Highlights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 24,992 million CNY, a decrease of 22% year-on-year, while the net profit was 2,761 million CNY, down 3% year-on-year [7] - The gross profit margin improved to 19.16%, up 2.55 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company’s phosphate sales volume in Q2 2025 was 941,800 tons, with an average selling price of 3,261 CNY per ton [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company benefits from a stable phosphate rock price, which supports profitability, and is expected to see continued improvement in earnings due to rising export premiums [7] - The company is reducing its trading business scale while focusing on its core operations, leading to a decline in trading revenue [7] - The asset-liability ratio at the end of Q2 2025 was 51.58%, reflecting a slight increase but still at a low point historically [7]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Chengxing Phosph-Chemicals Co., Ltd. reported a revenue increase of 9.85% in the first half of 2025, reaching approximately 1.78 billion RMB, while net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 211.08% to approximately 18.56 million RMB, indicating a significant recovery from the previous year's losses [2][12]. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - The company primarily engages in the production and sale of fine phosphochemical products, including yellow phosphorus, phosphoric acid, and phosphates [3]. - Key financial metrics for the first half of 2025 include: - Revenue: 1,776,117,718.64 RMB, up 9.85% from the previous year - Total profit: 71,114,489.23 RMB, a turnaround from a loss of 5,415,901.75 RMB - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 18,561,231.11 RMB, up 211.08% from a loss of 16,710,144.07 RMB [2][3]. Business Model and Operations - The company focuses on a circular economy and green economy, emphasizing safety, energy conservation, and environmental protection [3]. - It has established a production model that integrates mining, power generation, yellow phosphorus, and fine phosphochemical products, ensuring a stable supply chain and cost control [4][5]. Market Position and Industry Context - The global phosphate rock reserves are approximately 71 billion tons, with China being the second-largest phosphate resource country, holding about 3.7 billion tons [7]. - The company benefits from local phosphate resources in Yunnan, which helps stabilize raw material costs and supply chains [4][7]. - The price of phosphate rock remains high due to increased demand from downstream industries and rising mining costs [7][9]. Sales and Marketing Strategy - The company has implemented a marketing reform focusing on precision marketing, integrated marketing, and differentiated marketing to enhance brand strength and market share [6]. - It has developed a comprehensive supplier management system to ensure stable raw material supply and cost control [5][6]. Production and Financial Performance - The company achieved a significant increase in production efficiency, with both yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid production volumes rising, contributing to a higher market share [12][13]. - The net cash flow from operating activities increased by 76.78% to approximately 192.36 million RMB, driven by higher phosphoric acid revenues [12][14]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established itself as a leading producer of high-purity phosphoric acid and has been recognized by major international clients [11]. - It maintains a strong market presence with a diverse product range, including food-grade and pharmaceutical-grade phosphates, catering to various industries [11][15]. Future Outlook - The company is focused on optimizing its asset structure and enhancing operational efficiency to support sustainable growth [13][14]. - It is also committed to advancing its carbon management strategies in line with national goals for carbon neutrality [16].