投资要点 事件：云天化发布2025 半年报，25H1 实现营收249.92 亿元，同比减少21.88%；归母净利润27.61 亿 元，同比下降2.81%；扣非归母净利润26.96 亿元，同比下降3.38%；毛利率19.16%，同比提升2.55pct。 单季度看，25Q2 实现营收119.88亿元，同比减少33.90%，环比减少7.82%；归母净利润14.72 亿元，同 比增长6.52%，环比增长14.15%；扣非归母净利润14.26亿元，同比增长5.23%，环比增长12.26%；毛利 率21.25%，同比提升6.56pct，环比提升4.02pct。 产销稳中有增，业绩在多因素影响下持续稳定。25H1 公司磷肥、复合（混）肥、尿素、聚甲醛、黄 磷、饲料级磷酸氢钙收入分别为69.95、31.26、25.69、5.95、2.23、10.36 亿元，同比变化-14.40%、 6.00%、-17.12%、-5.88%、23.68%、14.47%；销量分别为221.91、98.33、146.49、5.58、1.08、25.29 万 吨，同比变化-6.67%、-0.47%、2.83%、2.20%、22.73%、-5.49% ...

草甘膦在经历三年低位运行后，近期迎来转机。随着行业反内卷专题会议的召开，叠加出口回暖等多重 利好，95%草甘膦原粉价格从此前的2.2万元(吨价，下同)涨至近期的2.6万元，涨幅接近20%。行业毛利 率由负转正，达到3.82%，单吨毛利回升至约1000元。据业内人士透露，目前部分企业订单已排满，短 期内市场仍存在供应缺口。 后市价格持续看涨 草甘膦需求中70%依赖出口。自5月以来，南美地区进入采购旺季，制剂订单集中下发，推动产品报价 上涨。海关数据显示，上半年草甘膦出口量33.1万吨，同比增长14.2%；出口金额9.7亿美元，同比增长 11.1%，但出口均价有所下降。 成本驱动供给优化 从成本端来看，近年来在"三磷"治理、环保督察、能耗管控等政策约束下，黄磷产能及能耗受到严格限 制，价格震荡运行。上半年国内黄磷均价为2.33万元，较2024年均价上涨464元。草甘膦生产所需的烧 碱等原材料也普遍上涨，其中烧碱上半年均价同比上涨11%。 从供给端来看，2018至2025年上半年，草甘膦行业未新增产能，2025年国内有效产能稳定在80万吨左 右。政策限制新增产能，行业扩产以技改为主。"江山股份目前草甘膦产能为7万吨 ...

南通江山农药化工股份有限公司 2025 年半年度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号行业信息披露：第十三 号—化工》、《关于做好主板上市公司 2025 年半年度报告披露工作的重要提醒》 的要求，南通江山农药化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年半年 度主要经营数据披露如下： 注 1：上述产量含自用量、农药按含量折原药计算（下同）。 注 2：除草剂产品包括草甘膦、酰胺类等产品；杀虫剂产品包括敌百虫、敌敌畏、二嗪 磷等产品；氯碱产品包括烧碱、盐酸、液氯、次氯酸钠等产品，其中烧碱产销量 按 32%、48%烧碱实物量计算（下同）。 证券代码：600389 证券简称：江山股份 公告编号：临 2025-044 注 3：阻燃剂（磷系）产品包含 TCPP、BDP 产品（下同）。 | 主要产品 | 2025 | 年 | 1-6 月平 | 2024 月平 | 年 | 1-6 | 同期变动 | 第二季度环比 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

证券代码：603010 证券简称：万盛股份 公告编号：2025-060 浙江万盛股份有限公司 2025 年半年度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上市公司行业信息披露指引第十三号——化工》的要 求，浙江万盛股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年半年度主要经营数 据披露如下： 浙江万盛股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 8 月 26 日 双酚 A 8,093.71 8,486.11 -4.62 -7.62 主要产品 2025年1-6月产 量（吨） 2025 年 1-6 月销 量（吨） 2025 年 1-6 月销售 金额（元） 聚合物功能性助剂 63,512.36 62,470.99 1,100,942,908.41 有机胺 11,002.73 11,027.86 278,410,308.24 涂料助剂 14,616.89 14,277.74 145,748,496.64 原料及中间体 18,769.00 17,620.15 82,515,465.10 一、主要产品的产 ...

云天化8 月19 日发布2025 年中报，公司上半年实现营收249.92 亿元，同比下降21.88%，实现归母净利 润27.61 亿元，同比下降2.81%，扣非后归母净利润26.96亿元，同比下降3.38%。Q2 单季度实现营收 119.88 亿元，同比下降33.90%，环比下降7.82%，实现归母净利润14.72亿元，同比提高6.52%，环比提 高14.15%，扣非后归母净利润14.26 亿元，同比提高5.23%，环比提高12.26%。公司业绩符合预期。 磷肥/尿素/复合肥/聚甲醛/饲钙/黄磷2025 上半年产量分别243.41/153.43/101.83/5.65/26.74/1.51 万吨， 同 比分别为-2.03%/13.79%/4.52%/0.18%/-8.64%/33.63%， 销量分别达到221.91/146.49/98.33/5.58/25.29/1.08 万吨， 同比分别为-6.67%/2.83%/-0.47%/2.20%/-5.49%/22.73%；整体产销量呈现增长趋势，公司经营稳 中向好；? 产品价格有所波动，毛利整体呈现下滑趋势 根据公司披露，2025 上半年磷铵/复合肥/尿素/聚甲 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.99 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.76 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year [6][12] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 11.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 33.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.47 billion yuan, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year and 14.2% quarter-on-quarter [6][12] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.0 yuan per 10 shares (tax included) [6][12] Financial Performance - The company has a phosphate rock reserve of nearly 800 million tons and an annual production capacity of 14.5 million tons of raw ore [12] - The company’s gross profit margin for Q2 2025 was 21.3%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 13.7%, up 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [12] - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.46 billion yuan, 5.53 billion yuan, and 5.64 billion yuan, respectively [12] Market Dynamics - The company experienced a decline in sales volume for major products in Q2 2025, with phosphate fertilizer down 21.4%, compound fertilizer down 18.4%, and urea down 11.8% [12] - The price of phosphate fertilizer decreased by 7.3% year-on-year, while the price of compound fertilizer increased by 21.6% [12] - The price difference for exported phosphate fertilizers has significantly increased due to reduced international trade volume and rising sulfur prices, with the price difference for diammonium phosphate at ports increasing by 988 yuan/ton year-on-year [12] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively optimizing its internal management and advancing projects such as the Zhenxiong phosphate mine to enhance future growth [12] - The company is focused on maintaining a balance between development and returns, with a strong emphasis on internal reforms and capacity expansion [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][28] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 2025, despite a decline in revenue due to reduced trading business scale. The gross margin and net margin improved, indicating enhanced profitability [1][10] - The core business of the company is in the fertilizer sector, with phosphate fertilizer being the largest revenue contributor. The company is expanding its international market presence while maintaining a strong domestic supply chain [2][17] - The supply-demand dynamics for phosphate rock are tight, with prices expected to remain high due to resource scarcity. The company has significant phosphate rock reserves, ensuring stable raw material supply for its production [3][22] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 11.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.47 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.2% [1][10] - The company's gross margin was 21.3%, and the net margin was 13.7%, both showing improvements compared to previous periods [10] Business Segments - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from phosphate fertilizer, compound fertilizer, and urea was 6.995 billion, 3.126 billion, and 2.569 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 28%, 13%, and 10% of total revenue. Phosphate fertilizer remains the largest single product contributor [2][17] - The average selling prices for phosphate fertilizer, compound fertilizer, and urea were 3,152 yuan, 3,179 yuan, and 1,754 yuan per ton, with year-on-year changes of -7%, +7%, and -19% respectively [2][17] Market Outlook - The domestic phosphate rock supply-demand situation is tight, with prices expected to remain elevated due to increasing demand and declining ore grades. The company has a production capacity of 5.84 million tons of phosphate rock, ensuring self-sufficiency [3][22] - The prices for various phosphate chemical products showed mixed trends, with feed-grade calcium hydrogen phosphate prices increasing by 21% year-on-year, while prices for polyoxymethylene and yellow phosphorus decreased [23][22] Investment Projections - The company maintains its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and has added projections for 2027, estimating net profits of 5.523 billion, 5.574 billion, and 5.709 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 3.01, 3.04, and 3.11 yuan [4][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from anti-involution policies aimed at curbing disorderly competition and eliminating outdated production capacity, which may lead to a recovery in industrial product prices and positively impact PPI and CPI [6][11][17] - The report highlights the significant influence of the energy and chemical sectors on PPI, with their price fluctuations directly affecting overall industrial inflation levels [16] - The industry is under pressure from declining product prices and reduced capacity utilization, leading to a strong demand for anti-involution measures [17] - The current valuation of the chemical industry is at a historical low, providing substantial upside potential as the sector is expected to recover from its cyclical bottom [17][19] Summary by Sections 1. Importance of Inflation Recovery - The report emphasizes that the chemical sector is a crucial lever for inflation recovery, as evidenced by the PPI's continuous decline and the need for policy intervention to combat deflationary pressures [6][11] 2. Reasons to Focus on Chemicals - The energy and chemical sectors account for 25%-30% of PPI, making their price recovery vital for overall inflation [16] - The industry faces significant profitability challenges, with nearly 25% of chemical companies reporting losses in 2024 [17] 3. Paths for Anti-Involution in Chemicals 3.1. Active Approach: Industry Self-Regulation - Certain sub-industries, such as polyester filament and sucralose, are attempting to improve profitability through supply-side collaboration, benefiting from high concentration and low profitability [27][29] - The report identifies key chemical products likely to benefit from self-regulation, including polyester filament, polyester bottle chips, and organic silicon [29][31] 3.2. Passive Approach: Policy-Driven Industry Improvement - The report outlines a dual-track policy framework focusing on optimizing existing capacity and strictly controlling new projects to enhance the competitive landscape [27][31] - Historical experiences suggest that effective policy measures will include phasing out outdated facilities and enforcing stricter environmental regulations [27][31]

证券代码：600096 证券简称：云天化 公告编号：临 2025-063 备注：以上主要产品数据为公司自产产品数据，未包含本期商贸收入及其他 业务收入和其他零星产品收入。 二、主要产品和原材料的价格变动情况 （一）主要产品价格波动情况（不含税销售均价） 单位：元/吨 | 主要产品 | 本期价格 | 上年同期价格 | | --- | --- | --- | | 磷肥 | 3,152 | 3,378 | | 复合（混）肥 | 3,179 | 2,985 | | 尿素 | 1,754 | 2,176 | | 聚甲醛 | 10,650 | 11,577 | | 黄磷 | 20,627 | 20,460 | | 饲料级磷酸氢钙 | 4,096 | 3,381 | （二）主要原材料波动情况（不含税采购均价） | | | 云南云天化股份有限公司 2025 年半年度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信 息披露》相关规定，将公司 2025 年半年度主要经营 ...

证券代码：600078 证券简称：澄星股份 公告编号：临 2025-039 江苏澄星磷化工股份有限公司 2025 年半年度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》、 《关于做好主板上市公司 2025 年半年度报告披露工作的重要提醒》的要求，江 苏澄星磷化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）现将 2025 年半年度主要经营数 据公告如下： 一、主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 | 主要产品 | 2025 年 1-6 | 月产量 | 2025 | 年 1-6 | 月销量 | 2025 | 年 1-6 | 月销售 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （万吨） | | | （万吨） | | | 金额（万元） | | | 黄磷 | | 7.07 | | | 4.27 | | | 87,964.00 | | 磷酸 | | 12.54 | | | 12.16 | | ...