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爱奇艺(IQ):25Q3点评:系列化项目有望驱动会员收入重回上升通道
Orient Securities· 2025-11-21 06:36
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $2.29 per ADS, based on an adjusted P/E average of comparable companies [3][6][11]. Core Insights - The new broadcasting policies are expected to positively impact the industry in the long term, leading to a gradual recovery in the company's ROI. The projected GAAP net profits for 2025 to 2027 are -331 million, 541 million, and 1.773 billion CNY respectively [3][5]. - The company reported a Q3 revenue of 6.68 billion CNY, a year-over-year decrease of 8%, but slightly above Bloomberg's expectations. The gross margin was 18%, down 4 percentage points year-over-year [9]. - Membership service revenue for Q3 was 4.2 billion CNY, a 4% decrease year-over-year but a 3% increase quarter-over-quarter, driven by strong performance from key content [9][10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 27.259 billion, 28.410 billion, and 29.356 billion CNY, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of -6.73%, 4.22%, and 3.33% [5][10]. - The GAAP net profit for 2025 is projected to be -331 million CNY, with a significant recovery expected in 2026 and 2027 [3][5]. - The gross margin is expected to decline from 27.52% in 2023 to 21.02% in 2025, before gradually improving to 22.62% by 2027 [5][12]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of November 19, 2025, was $2.24, with a 52-week high of $2.84 and a low of $1.50 [6]. - The absolute performance over the past week was +3.7%, while the relative performance was +7.3% compared to the Nasdaq index [7].