杠杆不仅用于投机，更是对冲工具，其核心公式为 "对冲所需合约数 = 现货市值 ÷（期货合约价值 ×β 系数）"。 系统性风险对冲：若持有 500 万元沪深 300 成分股组合（β=1），沪深 300 期货合约价值 120 万元 / 手，则需卖出 500 万 ÷120 万≈4 手期货。使用 10 倍杠杆时，仅需 48 万元保证金（4 手 ×12 万 / 手）， 即可对冲指数下跌 10% 带来的 50 万元现货亏损。2025 年 5 月市场下跌 8%，某组合通过此方法将亏损 从 40 万元降至 2 万元（手续费及基差损耗）。 需注意，对冲并非无风险，当基差异常波动（如升水骤扩至 3%），需降低杠杆至 3 倍以下，2025 年 8 月某案例因此规避了基差风险导致的 20% 亏损。 行业轮动中的杠杆微调：当预判消费板块跑赢大盘（β 升至 1.2），需增加 20% 对冲仓位。2025 年 6 月 某消费组合将对冲合约从 5 手增至 6 手，成功抵消了大盘下跌 3% 时的超额亏损。 基差套利的杠杆应用：当期货升水超 1%（远月合约价格高于现货），可卖空期货同时买入现货，使用 5 倍杠杆放大套利收益。2025 年 7 月沪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has sparked significant interest in gold investment, with spot gold prices reaching over $3,440 per ounce and approaching $3,500 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 29% [2] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On April 11, domestic gold jewelry prices surpassed 1,000 yuan per gram, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry reaching 1,082 yuan per gram by April 22 [2] - Historical data shows that gold prices have increased dramatically from $20 per ounce in 1850 to $3,500 per ounce in 2025, representing a 175-fold increase [8] - During Trump's first term, gold prices consistently rose, with notable increases from $1,150 to $2,075 per ounce, reflecting a shift from commodity-driven to currency-driven attributes [10] Group 2: Investment Channels - Various channels for purchasing gold include physical gold (bars and jewelry), account gold (paper gold through banks), gold ETFs and funds, and high-risk gold futures/options [4][5] - Buying gold jewelry is often not a profitable short-term investment due to high recovery costs and potential purity issues, with recovery rates typically at 85%-95% of market price [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - If "Trumpism" continues, characterized by tariff policies and fiscal expansion, the "crisis premium" of gold is expected to further increase [11] - The current market conditions suggest that investing in gold remains a viable option, despite inherent risks [12]