2026年首个完整交易周尚未全面展开，黄金市场已率先被一场突如其来的地缘政治事件推向风口浪尖。周初亚洲时段，现货黄金大幅高开并快速走强，盘中 一度上探至4370美元上方，单日涨幅接近1%。推动行情的并非宏观数据变化，而是周末美国对委内瑞拉采取的直接军事行动，这一高度罕见的举动迅速打 破市场对地缘风险"可控化"的既有认知，避险情绪在极短时间内集中释放，黄金重新成为全球资金的首选防御资产。不同于以往制裁或外交施压，此次事件 在性质和信号层面都更具冲击力，意味着大国博弈方式出现明显升级，也迫使市场重新评估全球政治秩序的不确定性溢价。在俄乌冲突持续、中东局势依然 紧张的背景下，委内瑞拉事件并非孤立存在，而是进一步强化了"地缘风险长期化"的市场预期，黄金所承载的已不仅是短期避险属性，更是一种对系统性风 险的战略性对冲工具。值得注意的是，本轮金价上行并未发生在美元全面走弱的环境中，美元指数同步反弹至阶段高位，显示资金在避险过程中并未完全放 弃美元资产配置，这也使得金价在快速拉升后进入高位震荡，而非单边加速上涨。 ▲ATFX图 ▲ATFX图 央行持续购金、去美元化配置需求、以及对主权资产安全性的重新评估，仍在从供需与结构层 ...

专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 1月5日，ATFX：2026年首个完整交易周尚未全面展开，黄金市场已率先被一场突如其来的地缘政治事 件推向风口浪尖。周初亚洲时段，现货黄金大幅高开并快速走强，盘中一度上探至4370美元上方，单日 涨幅接近1%。推动行情的并非宏观数据变化，而是周末美国对委内瑞拉采取的直接军事行动，这一高 度罕见的举动迅速打破市场对地缘风险"可控化"的既有认知，避险情绪在极短时间内集中释放，黄金重 新成为全球资金的首选防御资产。不同于以往制裁或外交施压，此次事件在性质和信号层面都更具冲击 力，意味着大国博弈方式出现明显升级，也迫使市场重新评估全球政治秩序的不确定性溢价。在俄乌冲 突持续、中东局势依然紧张的背景下，委内瑞拉事件并非孤立存在，而是进一步强化了"地缘风险长期 化"的市场预期，黄金所承载的已不仅是短期避险属性，更是一种对系统性风险的战略性对冲工具。值 得注意的是，本轮金价上行并未发生在美元全面走弱的环境中，美元指数同步反弹至阶段高位，显示资 金在避险过程中并未完全放弃美元资产配置，这也使得金价在快速拉升后进入高位震荡，而非单边加速 上涨。 ▲ATFX图 从技术结构观察，金价在前期冲高至高位后出 ...

Group 1 - The core formula for hedging with leverage is "Number of contracts needed for hedging = Spot market value ÷ (Futures contract value × β coefficient)" [1] - Systematic risk hedging example: Holding a 5 million yuan portfolio of CSI 300 stocks (β=1) requires selling approximately 4 futures contracts to hedge against a 10% index drop, needing only 480,000 yuan margin with 10x leverage [1] - In June 2025, a consumer portfolio increased its hedging position from 5 to 6 contracts, successfully offsetting excess losses during a 3% market decline [1] Group 2 - Basis arbitrage with leverage: When futures are over 1% (far-month contract price higher than spot), shorting futures while buying spot can amplify arbitrage profits using 5x leverage [2] - In July 2025, an institution used 1 million yuan margin to control 5 million yuan in contracts, achieving a profit of 60,000 yuan (6% return) after one month as the basis converged [2] - Risk management is crucial; if basis volatility increases (e.g., widening to 3%), leverage should be reduced to below 3x to avoid significant losses [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices has sparked significant interest in gold investment, with spot gold prices reaching over $3,440 per ounce and approaching $3,500 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 29% [2] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On April 11, domestic gold jewelry prices surpassed 1,000 yuan per gram, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Luk Fook Jewelry reaching 1,082 yuan per gram by April 22 [2] - Historical data shows that gold prices have increased dramatically from $20 per ounce in 1850 to $3,500 per ounce in 2025, representing a 175-fold increase [8] - During Trump's first term, gold prices consistently rose, with notable increases from $1,150 to $2,075 per ounce, reflecting a shift from commodity-driven to currency-driven attributes [10] Group 2: Investment Channels - Various channels for purchasing gold include physical gold (bars and jewelry), account gold (paper gold through banks), gold ETFs and funds, and high-risk gold futures/options [4][5] - Buying gold jewelry is often not a profitable short-term investment due to high recovery costs and potential purity issues, with recovery rates typically at 85%-95% of market price [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - If "Trumpism" continues, characterized by tariff policies and fiscal expansion, the "crisis premium" of gold is expected to further increase [11] - The current market conditions suggest that investing in gold remains a viable option, despite inherent risks [12]