Core Viewpoint - The electrolytic aluminum industry is transitioning from a traditional cyclical product to a high-quality, scarce asset characterized by price elasticity and dividend support, referred to as the "perfect combination of elasticity and dividends" [1][5] Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to perform strongly, with the leading non-ferrous metal ETF showing a 3.22% increase and a cumulative rise of over 70% year-to-date [1][3] - Major aluminum companies, such as Nanshan Aluminum and China Aluminum, have seen significant stock price increases, with Nanshan Aluminum hitting the daily limit [3][4] Dividend Trends - The weighted average dividend yield for the electrolytic aluminum sector is projected to reach 6.0% by the end of 2024, surpassing traditional high-dividend sectors like coal and oil [5][6] - China Hongqiao, a leading company in the sector, is expected to maintain a high dividend yield of 13.7% in 2024, with forecasts of 6.5%, 6.8%, and 7.2% for 2025 to 2027 [9][10] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing the policy ceiling of 4,500 million tons, with a utilization rate of 97.5%, indicating a "fragile balance" in the market [5][11] - The production growth rate is declining, with a projected 4.1% increase in 2024 and a further slowdown to 2.6% in 2025 [13][15] - The demand structure is improving, with transportation surpassing real estate as the largest downstream sector for aluminum, accounting for 24.8% [17] Capital Structure and Cash Flow - The peak of capital expenditure in the electrolytic aluminum sector has passed, leading to improved free cash flow for major companies [18][20] - Companies are entering a deleveraging cycle, with significant reductions in debt ratios and financial costs, enhancing asset quality [20][21]