Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global pricing of non-ferrous metal commodities will continue to be reassessed until 2026, with specific demand and supply dynamics influencing prices [1] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow due to industries such as machinery, communication, and transportation, while supply is constrained by domestic limitations and slower-than-expected overseas project completions, leading to a potential increase in aluminum prices [1] - Copper demand is supported by sectors like power grids, data centers, and energy storage, alongside policy guidance from the National Development and Reform Commission aimed at reducing competition in copper smelting [1] Group 2 - The Aluminum Oxide market is facing supply contraction expectations due to domestic supply controls and Guinea, a major bauxite-producing region, nearing a loss threshold [1] - The Non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-ferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, covering sectors such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1]

这项目的看点不是"建铝厂"，是"中国矿企+中东资源"的新玩法：沙特电价仅0.03美元/度，是国内的1/5，电解铝成本能压到1800美元/吨以下（国内约2200美 元），成本优势直接甩同行一条街。 2026年1月12日，山东创新集团主导的沙特50万吨电解铝项目首航货物装船启运，29辆国产混凝土设备从常熟港发往沙特，标志项目建设进入实质阶段。 更关键的是，这是中国矿企"带设备出海"的样本：29辆国产设备只是开头，后续电解槽、输配电设备大概率也会用中国产，相当于把"铝厂建设+设备出 口"打包做了。2025年我国电解铝设备出口额超80亿元，沙特项目能再带火一波出口。 以前中国矿企出海是"单打独斗"，现在是"资源+设备+技术"全链条输出，既赚了建厂的钱，又卖了设备，还绑定了中东的低成本能源——这才是矿业出海的 高阶玩法。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 （卓创资讯分析师米延滨） 【导语】2026年开年，有色金属迎来爆发式行情，基本面偏弱的现实叙事被宏观情绪过热的积极叙事踩 在脚下，现货铝价三个工作日上涨1700元/吨，且有继续上涨之势，历史新高亦触手可及。 一、价格回顾 本轮行情自2025年12月下旬起势，至今年1月强势拉升。截至1月7日，富宝现货A00铝价为24150元/吨， 较12月31日涨1700元/吨，涨幅7.57%，达到2021年10月20日以来新高。 二、宏观叙事的逻辑 贵金属及铜：资金轮动下，有色易涨难跌 12月贵金属及铜市场接连创下历史新高，"千金两万银十万铜"照进现实，但铝市场涨幅极为克制，并非 联动性不足，而是铝的跟随存在滞后性。 金银有实质的货币属性，美元衰退之下，其避险与抗通胀属性被持续放大。铜是有色"商品"的代表，宏 观属性最强，因而其率先脱离商品的局限而突破上行，作为连接商品与资金的纽带，进而至其他有色。 铝的商品属性比铜要强，拥抱宏观需要更多的情绪进行拉动，因此在贵金属乃至铜领涨半月之后，方才 迎来突破。 周期轮动：顺周期支撑基本面，逆周期支撑抗通胀 朱格拉周期又 ...

乳目技 周敏波 Z0015979 | 价格及基差 | | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 102510 | 103235 | -725.00 | -0.70% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 60 | 60 | 0.00 | | 元/肥 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 102155 | 103165 | -1010.00 | -0.98% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 20 | 5 | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 102395 | 103110 | -715.00 | -0.69% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -55 | -65 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 50ae | 5537 | -440.71 | -7.96% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 64.31 | 41.94 | +22.37 | - | 美元/肥 | | 进口盈 ...

近日，云南省委办公厅、省政府办公厅印发《云南省加快构建现代化产业体系推进产业强省建设行动计 划》，其中提出，以文山、红河为重点，联动大理、昭通、曲靖、昆明，加快打造绿色铝谷。巩固电解 铝产能规模优势，推动产业链招商和以商招商，加快引进铝精深加工和终端制造等领域优质企业，促进 再生铝与铝加工融合发展，打造协同创新生态。加快绿色铝产业标准体系建设，推动铝业协会等行业组 织发展。到2027年，力争全省铝合金化率达80%左右，绿色铝产业链产值达2500亿元左右。 华源证券认为，1)氧化铝：产能高位运行叠加库存上升，氧化铝现货价格延续弱势。短期内，氧化铝供 需基本面仍维持过剩格局，氧化铝库存持续累积，现货价格延续弱势。后续需持续关注氧化铝成本利润 与运行产能情况。2)电解铝：需求预期或上调，铝价突破创新高。在铜价创历史新高背景下，空调等家 电领域"铝代铜"进程或加速推进，另一方面消费品以旧换新政策有望在2026年延续，电解铝需求有望上 调。供给端，国内电解铝运行产能接近天花板，海外在建项目进度缓慢，而需求端维持稳定增长甚至存 超预期可能，电解铝今年或出现短缺格局，铝价有望迎来上行周期。 中信证券认为，展望2026年，预 ...

来源：金十数据 国外 1. 瑞银：对美联储独立性的担忧，可能会促使其立场更加偏向鹰派 瑞银全球财富管理首席经济学家保罗·多诺万撰文称，对在任美联储主席提起刑事调查，最终可能反而 有助于强化央行的独立性。市场反应显示，投资者对美联储在不受政治干预情况下管理利率的能力的担 忧正在上升。尽管资产价格整体波动不大，但长期美债收益率走高、美元走弱。多诺万表示，鲍威尔的 强硬态度可能意味着他不愿在今年辞去美联储理事职务；同时，也有迹象显示美国参议院可能会推迟确 认新任美联储主席的提名。他还指出，市场对央行独立性的担忧，可能会在未来的货币政策决策中转化 为一种偏鹰派的力量。 2. 高盛：料美联储仍将依据数据作出决策，不因调查压力而偏颇 高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius周一表示，美联储主席面临刑事起诉威胁将加剧市场对央行独立性的担 忧，但他预计美联储仍会基于经济数据做出政策决策。Hatzius在2026年高盛全球战略会议上表示："显 然，关于美联储独立性可能受到冲击的担忧在增加，而针对鲍威尔主席的刑事调查最新消息进一步强化 了这种担忧。"他补充道："我毫不怀疑，鲍威尔在剩余任期内仍将根据经济数据做出决策，而不会因压 力 ...

*此图由AI生成 作者| 史大郎&猫哥 来源| 是史大郎&大猫财经Pro 最强富二代张波，资产2300亿。 这个资产规模，全球排63位，是全国第七富豪，也是山东首富，但是在富豪榜上，他却没有名字，而 是"郑淑良家族"，郑淑良正是张波的母亲。 | : UT | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 42 | Henry Sattooli | $33.50 | A 2004M) clark | Semiconduction | F | United States | | 10 | 65 | · Zheng Shullang & family | $33.98 | A SAID M I (SAUS | Aluminum products: | 60 | Dina | | | es 142.0 | Daniel Gilbert 1155 2-14 | 832 88 | THE OF PERSELLA | · Rocket Marigage 11-2 - 11-2 - 11-2 | ﻓﻪ | United States | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market trends, fundamental factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each market segment. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market trends: Accelerated upward movement on Monday, with all major contracts rising. The market sentiment was high, and the trading volume reached a record high [20][21]. - Trading strategies: Suggested to go long on IC/IM on dips, conduct IM/IC 2606 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads for options [22]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market trends: Rebounded as expected on Monday, but the upward space may be limited. The market sentiment has improved in the short - term, but there are still unfavorable factors [23][24]. - Trading strategies: Suggested to take partial profits on previous long positions on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Market trends: Supply pressure is evident, and the market is likely to decline. The USDA reports are bearish [26][27]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a bearish approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short strangle strategy for options [27]. Sugar - Market trends: International sugar prices fluctuated and closed lower, while domestic sugar prices are in a range - bound pattern. Cost provides some support, but there is also sales pressure [29][30][31]. - Trading strategies: Expect international sugar prices to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term. For domestic sugar, consider low - buying and high - selling within the range, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell put options [31][32]. Oilseeds and Oils - Market trends: The USDA report is bearish. The market is affected by macro - sentiment, geopolitics, and bio - diesel factors, showing a volatile pattern [33][34]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term volatility to increase, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market trends: Wheat and corn auctions continue, and the spot market is strong. The US corn report is bearish, and the domestic market has short - term stability but long - term pressure [36][38]. - Trading strategies: Consider a long - term bullish approach for CBOT March corn after it stabilizes, try short - selling for March corn, widen the spread between May corn and starch on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [39]. Live Hogs - Market trends: Supply pressure is increasing, and the spot price is falling. The overall inventory is high [40][42]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a short - selling approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use a short strangle strategy for options [42]. Peanuts - Market trends: Spot prices are stable, and the market is bottom - oscillating. Import volume has decreased, and the cost of warehouse receipts is high [43][44]. - Trading strategies: Go long on May peanuts on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell PK603 - C - 8200 options [44][45]. Eggs - Market trends: Demand has improved, and egg prices are stable with a slight increase. The short - term supply pressure has eased [46][47]. - Trading strategies: Expect the February contract to oscillate in the short - term, consider going long on the May contract on dips, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - Market trends: Cold - storage inventory is low, and apple prices are firm. The cost of warehouse receipts is high, and the demand is expected to be good [50][51]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions in the May contract, go short on the October contract on rallies, conduct long May and short October arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market trends: Sales progress is fast, and cotton prices are oscillating. The USDA data shows a positive supply - demand situation, and the market has bullish factors [54][55]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term range - bound movement for US cotton, stay on the sidelines for Zhengzhou cotton, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [55]. Black Metals Steel - Market trends: Steel inventory is accumulating, and prices are oscillating. The black sector was weak at night, and the demand is affected by seasonality [57]. - Trading strategies: Expect a weak - oscillating trend, short the hot - rolled coal ratio on rallies, hold short positions on the hot - rolled rebar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market trends: Prices are fluctuating significantly, and the market is affected by sentiment and expectations. The fundamentals have not changed significantly [59][60]. - Trading strategies: Take partial profits on long positions gradually, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [61]. Iron Ore - Market trends: Market expectations are volatile, and ore prices are bearish at high levels. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak [62][63]. - Trading strategies: Go short on iron ore at high levels with a light position, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [63]. Ferroalloys - Market trends: Driven by cost, prices are oscillating strongly. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have different characteristics [64][65]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term upward oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddles for options [65]. Non - Ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Market trends: Geopolitics and policy games are intertwined, and prices are highly volatile at high levels. The market is affected by multiple factors [67][68]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions in Shanghai gold near the previous high at the end of December and Shanghai silver near the previous high on January 7th, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [70][71]. Platinum and Palladium - Market trends: The precious - metal market continues, and prices are at high levels. The fundamentals of platinum are better than those of palladium [72][73]. - Trading strategies: Go long on platinum on dips, be cautious when going long on palladium before the "232 investigation" result is announced, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [73][74]. Copper - Market trends: Short - term fluctuations are increasing, but the upward trend remains. The market is affected by supply - demand and financial factors [75][76]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions entered at 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [78]. Alumina - Market trends: Commodity sentiment and fundamentals are in conflict, and price fluctuations are increasing. The supply is abundant [79]. - Trading strategies: Expect a weak - oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market trends: The market is strong. Geopolitics and fundamentals affect the price, and the global supply - demand is supportive [80][81]. - Trading strategies: Expect a strong - oscillating trend, beware of price fluctuations caused by capital outflows, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [81]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market trends: The market is oscillating at a high level. Geopolitics and fundamentals affect the price, and the cost provides support [82]. - Trading strategies: Expect a strong - oscillating trend, beware of price fluctuations caused by capital outflows, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [82]. Zinc - Market trends: Pay attention to the impact of capital. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak [84][85]. - Trading strategies: Go short on zinc at high levels with a light position, beware of upward price movement driven by long - side capital, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85]. Lead - Market trends: Hold long positions and raise the stop - loss level. The supply is limited, and the demand has resilience [88][89]. - Trading strategies: Hold profitable long positions and raise the stop - loss level, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and buy out - of - the - money call options appropriately [90]. Nickel - Market trends: The financial attribute is strengthening, and a low - buying approach is recommended. The market is affected by geopolitics and inflation expectations [93]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a low - buying approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [94]. Stainless Steel - Market trends: The price follows nickel. The inventory is decreasing, but the capital inflow is limited [95][96]. - Trading strategies: Adopt a low - buying approach for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [96]. Industrial Silicon - Market trends: Short - term strength, medium - term short - selling on rallies. The demand is weakening, and the supply is slightly in surplus [97]. - Trading strategies: Go short on industrial silicon on rallies in the medium - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97]. Polysilicon - Market trends: Export tax - rebate cancellation and factory production cuts lead to short - term stabilization. The market is affected by policies and production cuts [98][99]. - Trading strategies: Be cautious when participating in futures trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. Lithium Carbonate - Market trends: Optimistic sentiment drives the price up. The demand is better than expected, and the supply is tight [100]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions at low levels, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use protective strategies for options [102]. Tin - Market trends: Beware of selling pressure caused by a change in macro - sentiment, and the supply shortage has not reversed. The market is affected by supply - demand and macro - factors [102][103]. - Trading strategies: Be cautious of short - term volatility, stay on the sidelines for options [104]. Shipping Container Shipping - Market trends: The Maersk Denver passed through the Red Sea, and Trump imposed secondary tariffs on Iran. The spot freight rate has reached a high point, and the demand is at a high level [105]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, go long on the June - October calendar spread on dips [106]. Energy Chemicals Crude Oil - Market trends: Geopolitics drives the price up. The market is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors [107][108]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range fluctuations, pay attention to the Iranian situation, go long on the domestic gasoline - diesel spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [108]. Asphalt - Market trends: Venezuelan oil is expected to be compliant, and there is a game in cost changes. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season [110][112]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range fluctuations, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [112]. Fuel Oil - Market trends: Geopolitics is bullish, but the fundamentals are weak. The market is affected by geopolitics and supply - demand [113][117]. - Trading strategies: Expect short - term upward oscillation, beware of geopolitical risks, hold the FU59 calendar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [118]. Natural Gas - Market trends: TTF/JKM is oscillating at a low level, and HH is bottom - seeking. The market is affected by weather and supply - demand [119][120]. - Trading strategies: Hold short positions in TTF and JKM, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on TTF or JKM [121]. LPG - Market trends: Strong current situation but weak expectations. The market is affected by supply - demand and import costs [122][124]. - Trading strategies: Pay attention to the Iranian situation, be bearish on long - term far - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [124]. PX&PTA - Market trends: Downstream polyester production cuts are increasing, and geopolitical disturbances strengthen cost support. The market is affected by supply - demand and geopolitics [125][126]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, conduct calendar spread arbitrage for PX&PTA March and May contracts, and stay on the sidelines for options [127]. BZ&EB - Market trends: Pure benzene is expected to decrease in supply, and styrene is boosted by exports. The market is affected by supply - demand and exports [128]. - Trading strategies: Look for short - selling opportunities for pure benzene at high levels, short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [129]. Ethylene Glycol - Market trends: Downstream polyester production cuts are increasing, and the price upside is limited. The market is affected by supply - demand [130][131]. - Trading strategies: Expect a weak - oscillating trend [131]. Short - Fiber - Market trends: The purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the processing margin is under pressure. The market is affected by supply - demand and production cuts [132][133]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [135][136]. Bottle Chips - Market trends: Some maintenance plans are announced. The market is affected by supply - demand and maintenance [136][137]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [138]. Propylene - Market trends: Downstream factories are actively purchasing. The market is affected by supply - demand and cost [138][139][140]. - Trading strategies: Expect high - level oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [140]. Plastic PP - Market trends: The market is strong. The market is affected by supply - demand and policies [141]. - Trading strategies: Hold long positions in the L 2605 contract, set a stop - loss at 6600 points, stay on the sidelines for the PP 2605 contract, pay attention to the support at 6450 points, sell and hold the PP2605 put 6100 contract, and set a stop - loss at 51.0 points [143]. Caustic Soda - Market trends: Commodity sentiment has improved. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [144]. - Trading strategies: Expect an oscillating trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [145][146]. PVC - Market trends: The market is oscillating. The market is affected by supply - demand and export policies [147]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines [148]. Soda Ash - Market trends: Wide - range oscillation this week. The market is affected by supply - demand and cost [149][151]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range oscillation, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options on far - month contracts at high levels [151]. Glass - Market trends: Wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by supply - demand and cost [153][155]. - Trading strategies: Expect wide - range oscillation this week, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell call options [155]. Methanol - Market trends: Wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by supply - demand, international production, and geopolitics [156]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines, pay attention to the 5 - 9 calendar spread, and sell put options on pull - backs [157]. Urea - Market trends: High - level oscillation. The market is affected by supply - demand, international bidding, and policies [159]. - Trading strategies: Go short on urea with a light position, and hedging enterprises can look for hedging opportunities [160]. Pulp - Market trends: The pulp price is oscillating widely at a high level. The market is affected by supply - demand [161][163]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and arbitrage, sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [164]. Logs - Market trends: The spot price has rebounded slightly. Pay attention to the delivery in Chongqing and Yantai. The market is affected by supply - demand [165][168]. - Trading strategies: Aggressive investors can go long with a small position, pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse calendar spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [168]. Offset Printing Paper - Market trends: High inventory restricts the implementation of price - increase letters for cultural paper. The market is affected by supply - demand [169][170]. - Trading strategies: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and arbitrage, sell the OP2602 - C - 4300 option [170]. Natural Rubber - Market trends: The bonded - area inventory is accumulating, but the

本次交易不仅是中国宏桥内部资产整合的关键落子，更蕴含深远的资本与战略价值。资本层面，依托A 股主板平台，后续资金将重点投向绿色产能扩建、低碳冶炼及精密加工技术研发，为产业升级注入动 力；同时，交易深度契合共建"一带一路"倡议与"新质生产力"发展要求，与《铝产业高质量发展实施方 案（2025—2027年）》的"高端化、智能化、绿色化"方向高度契合，已获得铝产业专项基金及多家机构 投资者青睐，彰显资本市场对其长期价值的认可。 对宏创控股而言，此次上市实现从单一铝深加工向全产业链布局的跨越，成功扭亏为盈，资产规模与可 持续经营能力大幅提升；对中国宏桥而言，完成核心资产整合后，形成"港股+A股"双平台协同发展格 局，借助A股资本市场进一步增强综合竞争力，其高盈利、高股息属性也将让A股投资者分享成长红 利，助力资本市场高质量发展。未来，宏创控股将充分发挥全产业链协同优势，践行绿色发展与高端化 转型战略，进一步强化公司全球铝行业龙头地位，为中国在全球铝产业标准制定、资源配置中争取更多 话语权，重塑行业竞争格局。（齐和宁） 1月13日，山东宏创铝业控股股份有限公司（证券简称"宏创控股"，股票代码：002379.SZ）发行股 ...

开源证券：AI泡沫仍尚早 但累计涨幅可能需要消化 凤凰网财经讯 1月13日，A股三大指数集体高开，沪指涨0.11%，深成指涨0.21%，创业板指涨0.07%。 以GEO、制药为首等AI应用方向领涨市场。 机构观点 东吴证券：市场对美联储降息预期推迟，港股反弹更要看分子端 泡沫的呈现往往取决于"容器大小"，有一个很有意思的比喻是"往杯子里倒酒"与"往杠里倒酒"泡沫的情 况是不一样的，在中美流动性宽松+A股估值牛市+政策大力支持发展科技（产业高景气）的基础上（往 缸里到酒），认为言AI泡沫仍尚早，只是仓位和累计涨幅的压力随时可能需要一定的消化。强者恒强 的核心因素仍在于ΔG，如果ΔG开始出现明显的疲软则可能处于平顶消化估值+成长回归价值的过程。 当前并未见到ΔG的显著拐点，那么AI硬件在现阶段更有可能跟随估值牛的大环境延续。 美国2025年12月失业率超预期回落，市场预计首次降息将推迟至6月。在年度展望中对美联储降息次数 预期比市场更为谨慎，认为全年1-2次，当前仍维持此判断。从经济基本面看，今年留给美联储降息的 窗口不多，宽财政对经济的脉冲效应还在路上。一季度美联储不降息的话，港股反弹节奏就更要看分子 端情况。 ...