氧化铝&电解铝12月报 过剩格局难以撼动，氧化铝低位震荡； 铜铝比或再迎收缩窗口，电解铝震荡为主 2025年11月 CO NTENTS 目 录 01 观点与策略 0203 铝土矿供应情况回顾及展望 氧化铝基本面情况回顾及展望 04 电解铝供应端情况回顾及展望 观点与策略 | | 观点 核心逻辑 | | --- | --- | | | 供应端，海外多个矿山复产，后续铝土矿发运量或将进一步提升。9月几内亚港 低位震荡 | | | 口出货量回升，我国铝土矿港口库存较高，氧化铝供应仍处过剩状态。需求端， | | | 国内电解铝产能继续高位运行，氧化铝下游需求处于高位。本周国内氧化铝行业 | | | 库存延续累库态势，铝土矿库存高企，内外矿价格均承压，成本支撑或边际走弱。 | | 氧化铝 | 综合来看，几内亚铝土矿供应回升，我国铝土矿供应总量充足，氧化铝供应过剩 | | | 格局将持续，需求端已处于天花板级别，基本面处于供需双强格局。氧化铝过剩 | | | 格局难以反转，成本支撑或走弱，后续减产规模存不确定性，预计12月氧化铝仍 | | | 将维持低位震荡。 | | | 外矿整体发运量环比下行，但外矿价格整体维稳，氧化 ...

铝月报（2025年11月） 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-11-28 目录 01 后市研判 02 行情回顾 02 行情回顾 03 宏观 面 04 基本 面 后市研判 PART 01 即使英伟达业绩表现和展望均亮眼，但市场仍然对当前的估值是否有泡沫存疑。前期鹰派官员发言开始有所转向，从 不应该进一步降息到"至少有理由犹豫不决"，美国通胀表现温和就业风险上升，12月份降息预期增加，宽货币周期 给有色金属带来向上驱动。 给有色金属带来向上驱动。 铝土矿国内维持供应紧张格局，但国外随着几内亚预计结束，预计铝土矿供应维持宽松格局。10月日均产量小幅回落， 因北方部分企业例行检修及受国产矿紧张制约，且南方地区冶炼负荷也有下滑。国内氧化铝建成产能持稳，近几个月 没有新增产能落地，关注环保限产后续复产情况 关注环保限产后续复产情况 环保限产后续复产情况，当前氧化铝价格已打到现金成本线左右，短期或将弱势震荡 氧化铝价格已打到现金成本线左右，短期或将弱势震荡 氧化铝价格已打到现金成本线左右，短期或将弱势震荡。 电解铝是属于高耗能行业，受我国供给侧改革--4500万吨 ...

——天山铝业动态跟踪 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们维持公司 2025-27 年每股收益预测为 1.05、1.35、1.51 元。根据可比公司估值 情况，给予 2026 年 11 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 14.85 元，维持买入评级。 扩产项目提升稀缺属性，绿色转型强化成 本优势 | | 1 周 | 1 月 | 3 月 | 12 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现% | -0.23 | -2.32 | 30.56 | 64.57 | | 相对表现% | 0.86 | 1.93 | 27.61 | 49 | | 沪深 300% | -1.09 | -4.25 | 2.95 | 15.57 | 风险提示 铝产业链价格波动、下游需求不及预期、贸易政策变化 | 公司主要财务信息 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 28,975 | 28,089 | 35,253 | 39,166 ...

作者 | beyond 编辑 | 小白 当资本市场的聚光灯频频打在锂、钴、芯片等新兴赛道时，一些传统行业的"老将"正悄然经历着深刻 的变革。中国铝工业正处于深度变革期，在"双碳"目标引领下，行业正经历供给侧结构性改革与需求 端转型升级的双重洗礼。 作为河南省重点电解铝企业，焦作万方（000612.SZ，公司）凭借其"煤—电—铝—铝加工"一体化产 业链优势，在2025年展现出强劲的盈利修复能力与结构性优化态势。 公司自1996年上市以来，始终专注于铝产业，现已形成42万吨电解铝产能及15万吨铝加工产能的产业 布局，并逐步向"氧化铝-电解铝-铝加工"全产业链延伸。 （来源：公司官网） 低负债高盈利，铝业老兵的逆袭。 一是产能天花板彻底固化。 中国电解铝4500万吨产能红线已成为不可逾越的天花板，任何新增产能 都必须通过等量或减量置换。这意味着行业供给端已经从"弹性"变为"刚性"。 截至2025年4月，国内电解铝运行产能已达4410万吨，无限接近产能上限，新增产能空间极小。 二是成本结构发生革命性变化。 电力成本占电解铝生产成本的35%-40%，这一核心变量正经历深刻 重构。 随着"双碳"政策推进，火电铝成本持续抬 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.28」 铝类市场周报 供给收敛需求韧性，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：沪铝震荡反弹，周涨跌幅+1.27%，报21610元/吨。氧化铝低位震荡，周涨跌-0.22%，报2707元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，海外几内亚发运季节性影响逐步削弱，国内进口量级、土矿港口库存或将回升，铝土矿供给 逐步充足。供给方面，氧化铝产业供给仍偏多，在现货偏弱运行的背景下，冶炼厂临近成本线，后续或因利润问题而 出现被动减产，国内氧化铝供给量级或逐步收敛。需求方面，国内电解铝产能受淡季影响小幅回落，但其消费端表现 韧性，令铝厂生产稳中小幅回落。整体来看，氧化铝基本面或处于供给略减，需求暂稳局面。 观点总结：氧化铝主力合约轻仓逢低短多交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 电解铝：基本面原料端，氧化铝原料供给仍显偏多且现货价格低位运行，令电解铝冶炼利润较好。供给 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenhua Co., Ltd. has shown a significant stock price increase of 49.97% year-to-date, with a recent trading performance indicating mixed trends in the short term [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Shenhua Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 31.005 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.50%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.38% to 3.49 billion yuan [2]. - Cumulatively, since its A-share listing, the company has distributed a total of 9.422 billion yuan in dividends, with 5.843 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of November 20, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shenhua Co., Ltd. reached 71,700, an increase of 5.29% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 5.02% to 31,346 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fourth largest, holding 77.6616 million shares, which is an increase of 38.6067 million shares from the previous period [3]. Market Activity - On November 28, 2025, Shenhua Co., Ltd.'s stock price rose by 2.07% to 24.60 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 303 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.55%. The total market capitalization reached 55.326 billion yuan [1]. - The net outflow of main funds was 2.2425 million yuan, with large orders showing a buy of 61.0525 million yuan and a sell of 52.6108 million yuan [1].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-28 周度社会库存去库较为明显 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21460元/吨，较上一交易日变化60元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-40元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-20元/吨；中原A00铝价21340元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-30元/吨至-160元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21380元/吨，较上一交易日变化80元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-115元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-11-27日沪铝主力合约开于21600元/吨，收于21500元/吨，较上一交易日变化55元/吨，最 高价达21610元/吨，最低价达到21485元/吨。全天交易日成交150551手，全天交易日持仓257138手。 库存方面，截止2025-11-27，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存59.6万吨，较上一期变化-1.7万吨，仓单库存66909 吨，较上一交易日变化-76吨，LME铝库存541050吨，较上一交易日变化-675吨。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-27保太民用生铝采购价格16700元/吨，机械生铝采购价格17000元/吨，价格环比昨 日变化100元/ ...

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's stock price has increased significantly, rising from HKD 3.98 to HKD 10.48, a gain of over 160% in seven months, indicating a potential continuation of this bullish trend [1] Acquisition Details - Yunnan Aluminum, a subsidiary of China Aluminum, plans to acquire stakes in three companies from Yunnan Metallurgy for a total consideration of CNY 2.267 billion, to be paid in two installments [1][5] - The acquisition aims to enhance the net profit attributable to shareholders and optimize the equity structure of Yunnan Aluminum [1][5] Financial Performance of Target Companies - The three target companies have varying performance; Yunnan Aluminum Yongxin is expected to have a net profit of CNY 608 million in 2024, while Yunnan Aluminum Runxin's profit is projected to drop by 72.3% to CNY 104 million, and Yunnan Aluminum Hongxin is expected to incur a loss of CNY 3 million [1][5] Valuation Methods - The valuation of the target companies was conducted using asset-based and income approaches, with significant discrepancies noted; for instance, Yunnan Aluminum Yongxin's valuation ranged from CNY 3.038 billion to CNY 5.308 billion [2][4] - The acquisition will result in a total goodwill of CNY 1.099 billion, representing 48.5% of the acquisition price [2][4] Financial Impact on China Aluminum - Post-acquisition, the net asset value of Yunnan Aluminum will increase by CNY 1.255 billion, and goodwill will rise by CNY 1.099 billion, impacting China Aluminum's financial statements positively [5][6] - The acquisition resolves competition issues within China Aluminum's subsidiaries and allows for a more focused expansion in aluminum products [6][7] Market Outlook and Shareholder Returns - China Aluminum has a history of generous dividends, with cumulative payouts reaching CNY 9.2 billion since 2021, and a dividend payout ratio of 21% [8] - Institutional investors, including CITIC Securities, have shown confidence in the company, increasing their holdings significantly [8][9] - Analysts predict continued growth in net profit, with estimates for 2025-2027 ranging from CNY 146.35 billion to CNY 177.2 billion, reflecting a positive outlook for the company [9]

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum's stock price has increased significantly, rising from HKD 3.98 to HKD 10.48, a gain of over 160% in seven months, indicating a potential continuation of this bullish trend [1] Acquisition Details - Yunnan Aluminum, a subsidiary of China Aluminum, plans to acquire stakes in three companies from Yunnan Metallurgy for a total transaction price of CNY 2.267 billion, to be paid in two installments [1][7] - The acquisition will increase Yunnan Aluminum's ownership in the three companies to 96.08%, 97.46%, and 100% respectively, enhancing its profit and investment returns [1][7] Financial Performance of Target Companies - The three target companies have varying performance; Yunnan Yongxin is stable with a projected net profit of CNY 608 million for 2024, while Yunnan Runxin's profit is expected to drop by 72.3% to CNY 104 million, and Yunnan Hongxin is projected to incur a loss of CNY 3 million [1][6] Valuation Methods - The valuation of the target companies was conducted using asset-based and income approaches, with significant discrepancies noted; for instance, Yunnan Yongxin's valuation ranged from CNY 3.038 billion to CNY 5.308 billion [2][4] Goodwill Impact - The acquisition will generate a total goodwill of CNY 1.099 billion, representing 48.5% of the acquisition price, with Yunnan Yongxin contributing CNY 718 million and Yunnan Runxin CNY 379 million [6][11] Financial Metrics Post-Acquisition - Following the acquisition, Yunnan Aluminum's net asset value will increase by CNY 1.255 billion, and its net profit attributable to shareholders will rise by CNY 715 million, significantly impacting China Aluminum's financial statements [7][8] Strategic Positioning - The acquisition resolves competition issues within China Aluminum's subsidiaries and allows Yunnan Aluminum to focus on expanding its aluminum product offerings, maintaining its global leadership in various aluminum segments [9][11] Market Outlook - China Aluminum has shown resilience with a projected revenue growth of 1.57% in the first three quarters of 2025, despite previous declines, and is expected to maintain double-digit growth in net profit [9][10] - The company has a strong dividend policy, having distributed CNY 9.2 billion in dividends since 2021, with a current dividend yield of 2.7% [10][11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Tin - Consider the strong fundamentals and maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and monitor macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [1][2] Polysilicon - Expect a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory accumulation in each link. However, strong spot support will keep prices oscillating in a high - level range. The reverse market structure may continue. Advise cautious trading [4] Industrial Silicon - Anticipate that industrial silicon prices will oscillate at a low level. There will be a decline in both supply and demand in November, with a relatively large supply decline, but there is still pressure for inventory accumulation. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [6] Zinc - The price is boosted by interest - rate cut expectations. The supply - side pressure is limited, and the demand side shows a structural improvement. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and attention should be paid to structural risks. The price is expected to oscillate, with the main reference range of 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton [7] Copper - The probability of a December interest - rate cut is increasing, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to macro - level drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations. The main reference range is 86000 - 88000 yuan/ton [8] Lithium Carbonate - The market maintains a situation of both strong supply and demand. The downstream demand is optimistic, and social inventory is decreasing. However, there may be pressure from high hidden inventory of traders. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [11] Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a pattern of strong expectations and weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the main reference range of 21300 - 21800 yuan/ton [13] Nickel - The macro - level is stable, and the fundamentals are weak. The short - term upward drive is limited, and the medium - term supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main reference range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton [14] Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern under cost support and demand resilience. The main contract reference range is 20500 - 21000 yuan/ton [15] Stainless Steel - The policy - driven effect is difficult to be directly transmitted in the short term, the cost support is weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The price is expected to oscillate, with the main reference range of 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton [16] Summaries by Related Catalogs Tin - **Price Changes**: The spot price of SMM 1 tin increased by 2.24% to 301800 yuan/ton, and the price of长江 1 tin increased by 2.23% to 302300 yuan/ton [1] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49% to 11632 tons, SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16090 tons, and refined tin imports decreased by 58.55% to 526 tons [1] - **Inventory Changes**: The SHEF weekly inventory decreased by 0.46% to 6229 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2.83% to 7654 tons [2] Polysilicon - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock increased by 0.10% to 52300 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50500 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 11.44% to 2.40 million tons, and the monthly polysilicon production increased by 3.08% to 13.40 million tons [4] - **Inventory Changes**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.69% to 28.10 million tons, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 4.17% to 19.50 million tons [4] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon increased by 0.53% to 9550 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 233.33% to - 50 yuan/ton [6] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 15.94% to 23.56 million tons [6] - **Inventory Changes**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.95% to 12.04 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.36% to 55.00 million tons [6] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.22% to 22450 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [7] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and refined zinc imports decreased by 16.94% to 1.88 million tons [7] - **Inventory Changes**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 3.01% to 14.81 million tons, and the LME inventory increased by 1.75% to 5.1 million tons [7] Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.50% to 87085 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 25 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton [8] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and electrolytic copper imports decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [8] - **Inventory Changes**: The domestic social inventory decreased by 10.80% to 17.35 million tons, and the LME inventory increased by 0.43% to 15.72 million tons [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.54% to 93300 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton [11] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% to 92260 tons, and lithium carbonate demand increased by 8.70% to 126961 tons [11] - **Inventory Changes**: In October, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90% to 84234 tons, and the downstream inventory decreased by 13.50% to 53291 tons [11] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.28% to 21460 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [13] - **Inventory Changes**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 4.03% to 59.60 million tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.12% to 54.1 million tons [13] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.71% to 119000 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 decreased by 15.74% to - 220 dollars/ton [14] - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production**: The cost of integrated MHP - based electrolytic nickel production decreased by 4.84% to 110810 yuan/ton, and the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte - based electrolytic nickel production increased by 3.75% to 129484 yuan/ton [14] - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production increased by 0.84% to 35900 tons, and refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% to 9741 tons. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1.92% to 39795 tons [14] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21350 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 55 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton [15] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06% to 28.60 million tons [15] - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.59% to 5.56 million tons [15] Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12700 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton [16] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (43 manufacturers) decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons, and the production of Indonesian 300 - series stainless steel crude steel (Qinglong) increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [16] - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.92% to 50.24 million tons, and the 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.77% to 30.25 million tons [16]