10月10日，神火股份盘中上涨2.03%，截至09:52，报21.64元/股，成交4.21亿元，换手率0.89%，总市值 486.76亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入1760.89万元，特大单买入5980.25万元，占比14.20%，卖出3695.36万 元，占比8.77%；大单买入9931.85万元，占比23.58%，卖出1.05亿元，占比24.82%。 神火股份今年以来股价涨31.93%，近5个交易日涨11.95%，近20日涨15.78%，近60日涨24.73%。 资料显示，河南神火煤电股份有限公司位于河南省永城市东城区东环路北段369号，成立日期1998年8月 31日，上市日期1999年8月31日，公司主营业务涉及铝产品、煤炭的生产、加工和销售及发供电。主营 业务收入构成为：电解铝69.40%，煤炭14.11%，铝箔6.41%，铝箔坯料4.44%，贸易3.82%，其他业务 1.73%，运输0.05%，阳极炭块0.03%，型焦0.03%。 神火股份所属申万行业为：有色金属-工业金属-铝。所属概念板块包括：有色铝、稀缺资源、一带一 路、电池箔、融资融券等。 截至9月20日，神火股份股东户数7.11万，较 ...

| 链期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011 1292号 周敏波 | 2025年10月9日 | | | | Z0015979 | | | 价格及价差 | | | | | | 现值 前值 涨跌 | | | | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 20720 | SMM A00铝 | 20690 | 30.0 | 0.14% | 元/吨 | | -20 | SMM A00铝升贴水 | -10 | -10.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 20720 | 长江 铝A00 | 20680 | 40.0 | 0.19% | 元/吨 | | -20 | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 | -20 | 0.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(河南)-半均价 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | / | 元/肥 | | 氧化铝(山西)-平均价 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(广西)-平均价 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | / ...

当前时点，如何看待金属煤炭行业？20251008 摘要 ETF 资金流向与黄金价格高度相关，今年海外资金驱动显著，尤其在 Comex 和北美 SPDR ETF 市场，与过去两年中国主导购金的趋势不同。 美国降息预期下修了投资者对美股及美国实体投资回报率的预期，促使 周期性避险资金流入黄金市场，经济数据衰竭加速及政府停摆进一步推 升金价。 短期内，降息初期围绕远端降息概率及经济数据松动背景下，金价上行 趋势将延续，但央行购金结构等因素难以高频跟踪，短端阻力位难以明 确。 长期来看，若历史重演且周期性与趋势性力量共振，黄金可能经历一个 十年左右的中周期，目前涨势已持续七年，预计至少还有三年左右的短 周期时长。 黄金股估值普遍偏低，突破 4,000 美元后，市场信心增强，预计 A 股公 司估值将回到 25-30 倍历史中位数水平，建议关注四季度 A 港股黄金板 块。 Q&A 近期黄金价格突破 4,000 美元的主要驱动因素是什么？ 近期黄金价格突破 4,000 美元的主要驱动因素包括以下几个方面。首先，假期 期间，海外周期性主导的 ETF 资金大规模加仓是推动黄金价格上升的重要原因。 高频数据表明，ETF 资金持仓 ...

说起中国铝产业，山东这块地儿绝对是扛把子。2024年，山东氧化铝产量直接冲到2960万吨，占全球总产量的两成多，妥妥超过五分之一。 这可不是吹牛，全球氧化铝总产量1.42亿吨，中国占了大头，山东又在国内拔尖。 想想看，这么多铝从山东厂子里出来，支撑着从手机壳到高铁车的各种玩 意儿。山东为什么这么牛？不是天上掉馅饼，得从老底子说起，产业链一步步抠实了。 山东铝业这摊子事儿，起步早，根基稳。五十年代，淄博就建起国内头一个氧化铝厂，那时候全国氧化铝全靠它一个人扛，供了十二年。 后来本世纪头几年，山东抓住机会，在滨州邹平、聊城茌平、烟台龙口仨地方扎根，搞出三大基地。结果呢？直接冒出魏桥、信发、南山这三家大户，业内 叫"山东三铝"。这仨加一块儿，产量占全国一半多，山东铝就这么站稳了脚跟。 产能这块，山东也玩得转。2024年，山东不光氧化铝牛，铝材也产了1469万吨，电解铝900万吨。 全国铝材总产量6783万吨，山东就占了两成出头。 不过话说回来，山东也没死磕本地，早几年响应节能减排，电解铝产能从2018年的1200万吨左右，逐步往外挪，到2025年预计只剩400万吨。 这不是缩水， 是优化，腾空间给高端活儿干。结果产 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Alumina & Electrolytic Aluminum Q4 Report - Prices Approach Cost, Limited Decline for Alumina; Consumption May Be Overdrawn, Center of Electrolytic Aluminum Shifts Down [1] - Report Date: September 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Alumina - In Q3, the alumina market was in a supply surplus. After a short - lived price increase due to market sentiment, prices dropped as the market returned to the surplus fundamentals. The supply is expected to remain ample in Q4, but prices are close to the cost line. If prices fall below the cost line, production cuts may occur, potentially leading to a rebound. Short - term strategy is to sell on rallies, while long - term investors can consider buying near the cost line [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In Q3, aluminum prices fluctuated between Fed rate - cut expectations and market fundamentals. Domestic production capacity is at a high level, but the growth in supply is limited. Demand is weakening, especially in the real estate sector. Although there is some support from the macro - environment, prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term and gradually decline in the long - term [6]. Summary by Directory 01 Viewpoint and Strategy Alumina - **Market Review**: In Q3, the alumina market was in surplus. After a price spike due to "anti - involution" sentiment, prices fell as the market reverted to surplus fundamentals [5]. - **Supply**: The supply outlook is bearish. Although Guinea's ore shipments decreased in Q3, Australia's increased, and port inventories continued to build up, supporting high alumina plant operating rates [5]. - **Demand**: Demand is expected to be range - bound. High electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization ensures a large demand for alumina, but the growth in demand is limited as electrolytic aluminum capacity nears the "capacity ceiling" [5]. - **Inventory**: Inventory is bearish. Profitable production led to strong output and continuous inventory accumulation. As of September 26, inventory was 4.505 million tons, up 13.82% year - on - year [5]. - **Outlook**: The outlook is slightly bullish. In Q4, as the rainy season in Guinea ends, ore supply will increase, and prices may decline slightly. If prices fall below the cost line, production cuts could narrow the surplus, and prices may rebound. Short - term strategy is to sell on rallies, and long - term investors can buy near the cost line [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: In Q3, aluminum prices oscillated between Fed rate - cut expectations and fundamentals, with strong resistance at the 20,800 level. After a short - lived rise in mid - September, prices fell back [6]. - **Supply**: Supply is bearish. Domestic production capacity is at a high level, but future supply growth is limited as capacity approaches the "ceiling" [6]. - **Demand**: Demand is bearish. Domestic demand is weak, especially in the real estate sector, and exports of major aluminum products remain sluggish [6]. - **Inventory**: Inventory is slightly bearish. With a lower proportion of molten aluminum, social inventory has been building up since July - September, reaching 614,000 tons as of September 26, a medium - level in the past six years [6]. - **Outlook**: The outlook is slightly bearish. Supply will continue to pressure prices, but there is a risk of power - rationing - induced production cuts in the southwest in Q4. Consumption, which was strong in the first half, shows signs of being overdrawn, and demand growth is expected to slow. The market expects loose monetary policy from the Fed, providing some macro - support. Prices will be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [6]. 02 Bauxite Supply Review and Outlook - **Domestic Bauxite**: In August, China's bauxite production was 5.87 million tons, up 4.82% year - on - year, at a medium level in the past four years. Output in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, and Shanxi increased from July - August, with Henan reaching a two - year high [9]. - **Imports**: In August, imports decreased month - on - month due to the rainy season in Guinea but remained at the highest level in the past six years. From January - August, cumulative imports were 141.7563 million tons, up 31.63% year - on - year, with a narrowing growth rate [13]. - **Country - Specific Shipments**: From July - August, shipments from Australia to China increased, while those from Guinea decreased, falling to 4.607 million tons in August. As of September 19, port inventory was 28.76 million tons, at a medium - high level in the past six years [17]. 03 Alumina Fundamental Review and Outlook - **Profit and Production**: From July - August, production costs were stable at around 2,852 yuan/ton, and profit was about 400 yuan/ton in August, dropping to 270 yuan/ton in mid - September. Except for Shanxi, capacity utilization increased in other regions [22]. - **Output**: In July, global metallurgical alumina output was 12.952 million tons, up 0.91% year - on - year, reaching a six - year high. In August, China's output was 7.878 million tons, up 12.53% year - on - year, also a six - year high [28]. - **Net Exports**: From January - August, China maintained a net - export status. In July, net imports were - 103,500 tons, and in August, - 86,100 tons, at a very low level in the past six years [33]. - **Inventory**: Since June, inventory has been building up due to ample supply and strong production. As of September 26, inventory was 4.505 million tons, up 13.82% year - on - year [36]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: Since May, the market has been in surplus. Although Guinea's shipments decreased in the rainy season, Australian imports compensated, leading to strong output. If prices fall below the cost line in Q4, production cuts may narrow the surplus [40]. 04 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Review and Outlook - **Cost and Profit**: In August, although alumina prices fell, electrolytic aluminum production costs rose slightly to 16,111 yuan/ton, and profit decreased to 4,548 yuan/ton [42]. - **Output**: From July - August, global electrolytic aluminum output was 12.545 million tons, up 1.1% year - on - year, at a six - year high. China's output was 7.566 million tons, up 2.6% year - on - year, with August's output reaching a six - year high [45]. - **Imports**: From July - September, the Shanghai - London ratio declined, and in August, imports decreased month - on - month to 495,600 tons, up 16.9% year - on - year, at a relatively high level in the past six years [49]. - **Inventory**: From July - August, the proportion of molten aluminum was low, and social inventory has been building up since July - September, reaching 614,000 tons as of September 26, a medium - level in the past six years. SHFE and LME inventories also increased, weakening inventory support [52][56]. 05 Electrolytic Aluminum Downstream and Terminal Consumption Review and Outlook - **Downstream Industry**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The real - estate slump continued to drag down the aluminum - profile industry. In July - August, the operating rate decreased to 42.27% in August and is expected to remain weak [62]. - **Aluminum Sheets and Strips**: From July - August, the operating rate first fell and then rebounded to 70.97% in August, lower than the end of last year [62]. - **Exports**: Trade barriers persisted, and aluminum - product exports showed no significant improvement. Aluminum - profile, sheet - strip, and foil exports decreased year - on - year, while aluminum - cable exports increased but accounted for a small proportion [66][71]. - **End - User Markets**: - **Real Estate**: The real - estate market remained weak. From January - August, new - construction area, construction area, and completion area all decreased year - on - year, with the decline in completion area accelerating [76][81]. - **Automobiles**: From January - August, China's automobile production was 21.026 million vehicles, up 12.64% year - on - year, with a slightly narrowing growth rate. The sales - to - production ratio was 1.0149 in August, indicating a healthy market [85]. - **New - Energy Vehicles**: From January - August, production was 9.6031 million vehicles, up 36.76% year - on - year, with a slightly narrowing growth rate. The sales - to - production ratio was 1.0029 in August [89]. - **Home Appliances**: In Q3, as government subsidies were exhausted, the growth rate of white - goods sales slowed down [94]. - **Photovoltaic**: From January - August, cumulative installed capacity was 1117.23GW, up 48.5% year - on - year, with a narrowing growth rate. Cumulative new - installed capacity was 230.61GW, up 64.73% year - on - year, also with a narrowing growth rate [99]. 06 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In Q3, high production capacity utilization led to high output. With the inflow of Russian aluminum and weakening consumption, the market turned to a slight surplus. In Q4, there is a risk of power - rationing - induced production cuts in the southwest, and demand is expected to weaken further, leading to an increase in the surplus to about 129,000 tons [106].

Report Summary of the Metal Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper price may rise in the short - term due to mine - end disturbances, and the medium - to long - term supply - demand contradiction provides bottom support. The price center may gradually increase. The main price range to watch is 81000 - 81500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina is in a "high - supply, high - inventory, weak - demand" situation. The spot price is expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton. For aluminum, the macro environment is relatively warm, and the price is supported by peak - season demand and inventory inflection points, with the main contract expected to oscillate between 20600 - 21000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract's operating range between 20200 - 20600 yuan/ton, supported by cost and pre - holiday stocking but restricted by weak demand recovery and inventory accumulation [5]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc is in a loose situation, and the price may be driven up in the short - term by the macro environment but lacks upward momentum from the fundamentals. The main price range is 21500 - 22500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is stable, and there are more disturbances at the mine end, with cost support, but the medium - term supply is loose [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 12600 - 13200 yuan/ton. The raw material price provides cost support, but the peak - season demand has not been fully realized, and inventory de - stocking is under pressure [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton, supported by strong peak - season demand [16]. 3. Summary by Catalog Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 82210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.33%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium remained unchanged at - 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 26.43 million tons, a decrease of 10.99% [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the alumina production was 773.82 million tons, an increase of 1.15% compared to the previous month, and the electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a slight increase [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20900 yuan/ton. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a decrease of 1.60% compared to the previous month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 21630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts decreased by 15 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, an increase of 3.88% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 2.57 million tons, an increase of 43.30% [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 271400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.84%. The LME 0 - 3 premium remained unchanged at - 50 dollars/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In August, the tin ore import was 10267 tons, a decrease of 0.11% compared to the previous month, and the SMM refined tin production was 15390 tons, a decrease of 3.45% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 122000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The LME 0 - 3 decreased to - 187 dollars/ton [12]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in August was 32200 tons, an increase of 1.26% compared to the previous month, and the import volume was 17536 tons, a decrease of 8.46% [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) dropped to 13050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The monthly spread between 2511 - 2512 contracts increased by 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 171.33 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% compared to the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped to 73550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The monthly spread between 2510 - 2511 contracts increased by 100 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, the lithium carbonate production was 85240 tons, an increase of 4.55% compared to the previous month, and the demand was 104023 tons, an increase of 8.25% [16].

分红方面，神火股份A股上市后累计派现94.22亿元。近三年，累计派现58.43亿元。 截至9月20日，神火股份股东户数7.11万，较上期增加0.42%；人均流通股31612股，较上期减少0.42%。 2025年1月-6月，神火股份实现营业收入204.28亿元，同比增长12.12%；归母净利润19.04亿元，同比减 少16.62%。 9月30日，神火股份盘中上涨2.02%，截至10:03，报20.18元/股，成交2.56亿元，换手率0.57%，总市值 453.92亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入563.37万元，特大单买入2848.01万元，占比11.13%，卖出1671.42万 元，占比6.53%；大单买入6501.58万元，占比25.42%，卖出7114.80万元，占比27.81%。 神火股份今年以来股价涨23.03%，近5个交易日涨6.15%，近20日涨3.70%，近60日涨18.64%。 资料显示，河南神火煤电股份有限公司位于河南省永城市东城区东环路北段369号，成立日期1998年8月 31日，上市日期1999年8月31日，公司主营业务涉及铝产品、煤炭的生产、加工和销售及发供电。主营 业务收入构成为 ...

2025年09月30日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铝 | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率持续上升。 | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.07%，收于 | | | | 20730 | 元/吨，国内 | 0-3 | 月差-25 | 元/吨，LME | | | | 价格 2665 | 美元/吨。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 交易策略：节前下游积极备货，需求回暖趋势延续，下游开工持续上升，去库拐点初现，电解铝价格下方支 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 撑较强，预计延续震荡偏强走势，建议逢低做多。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 铝产业链周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-09-29 01 周度观点 ◆ 基本面分析 几内亚散货矿主流成交价格周度环比下降0.7美元/干吨至74.2美元/干吨。几内亚雨季接近尾声，且氧化铝价格走弱，施压矿价下 行。氧化铝运行产能周度环比增加60万吨至9855万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比增加7.8万吨至379.7万吨。上半年氧化铝新增 产能逐步进入稳产状态，氧化铝行业生产处于高稳态势。电解铝运行产能稳中有增，周度环比增加1万吨至4443.9万吨。百色银海 技改项目剩余产能继续复产。需求方面，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率周度环比上升0.8%至63%。需求进入旺季节奏，下游各 加工板块开工继续上升。库存方面，下游节前备货需求旺盛，铝锭社会库存明显去化。再生铸造铝合金方面，大厂订单稳中有升， 企业积极交付订单，带动开工上行。宏观上美联储如期降息，国内LPR暂未下调，但后续仍有降准降息空间。铝锭社会库存明显去 化且预期向好， ...

氯碱四季报 S H ：四季度关注下游补库节奏 ， 需求仍存支撑 V ：供需矛盾较难解决 ， 关注四季度需求边际变化 广发期货研究所 蒋诗语 投资咨询资格：Z0017002 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 ◼ 烧碱主要观点：三季度烧碱整体呈现宽幅震荡格局，7-8月下游集中补库提振盘面持续走强，9月盘面趋弱回落。下游方面，近期非铝补库结束，刚需买货为主，国庆后伴随非 铝库存下降或可能因为低价有采购意愿。主力氧化铝下游库存高补库意愿同样偏低，当前山东大厂送货量居高不下，未来收货价有下调预期。氧化铝产能高位，过剩问题存在，预 计若减产或需等到11月，因此短期烧碱需求尚存支撑。从投产节奏看，氧化铝在明年一季度有较多投产，因此今年四季度或有集中备货行为，届时现货流通性或收紧。因此预计四 季度烧碱下方空间有限，需跟踪下游补库节奏。 ◼ PVC主要观点：三季度pvc盘面处于持续下跌的趋势中，基本面供需矛盾依然较难缓解，盘面、现货价格共同趋弱。供应端方面，产量持续高位，过剩格局凸显。需求端，三季 度旺季未有明显表现，型材需求持续收缩，旺季不旺特征明显。整体上游持货意愿下降 ...