红枣产业日报 2025-12-29 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 8970 | -10 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 113593 | 91 79 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -15312 | 9 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 1171 | | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | 1047 | -39 | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the third quarter, without continuous bullish weather conditions, the price of jujube futures rose first and then fell, and the position volume reached a record high since its listing [6]. - The spot price of jujubes in the third quarter started high, then declined, and rebounded with overall low - level fluctuations [32]. - There is a large gap in the estimated new - season jujube production in 2025 among different research institutions [49][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Jujube Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Price**: The price of jujube futures rose and then fell in the third quarter, with the position volume at a high level since listing. Data on the closing prices of jujube 2509, 2601, and 2505 contracts, as well as the month - to - month spreads between 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 contracts, and the jujube warehouse receipt registration volume are presented [6][10][13]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of jujubes in the third quarter started high, then declined, and rebounded with overall low - level fluctuations. The spot price of general jujubes in Xinjiang's production areas started high, but the increase was lower than market expectations. By the end of October, the premium of the jujube 2601 contract over the spot (standard Cangzhou special - grade) narrowed [32][35][38]. - **Price Correlation and Volatility**: Jujube futures and apple futures show a weak correlation. The one - year volatility of the jujube 2601 contract is also presented, along with the monthly price change data of jujube spot prices from 2018 - 2025 [42][45][47]. 3.2 Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **Production**: There is a large gap in the estimated new - season jujube production in 2025 among different research institutions. The estimated production ranges from 20 - 460,000 tons, with a reduction of 14% - 40% compared to the normal - year output of 650,000 tons. In 2024, the jujube production in Xinjiang increased significantly, reaching 700,000 tons, and institutions predict that the production in 2025 may be around 500,000 tons [49][50][53]. - **Inventory**: The spot inventory of jujubes decreases seasonally and will start to accumulate seasonally in November. Data on the inventory, production, consumption, and other aspects from 2019/20 - 2024/25 are also provided [54][56][57]. 3.3 Weather Conditions in October's New - Season Listing Period - The weather was generally good during the new - season jujube listing period in October. The growth stages of jujubes include eight stages: germination, early flowering, full - flowering, young - fruit, rapid - growth, maturity, leaf - falling, and dormancy [58][61][62].