1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market acknowledges the potential reduction in the new season's production, but there are differences in production estimates. Mysteel initially estimates that the new - season production will decrease by 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an expected output of 56 - 62 million tons. Before the production is finalized, the expectation of a new - season production cut supports the red date futures price. However, as the previous price increase has digested the positive impact of the production cut, the driving force for the red date 2601 contract has weakened. It is expected to have a short - term strong adjustment, and attention should be paid to the actual new - season production. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main red date futures contract is 11,470 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 136,661 lots, with an increase of 1,130 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,464 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts is 9,826. The total number of valid warehouse receipt forecasts is 1,237, with an increase of 1 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The prices of red date products in different regions remain stable. For example, the unified price of red dates in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.8 yuan/jin, and the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong is 11.5 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual red date production is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, with a decrease of 4.1 in the area [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 9,686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons compared to last week, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 79.94%. The monthly export volume of red dates is 1,765,107 kg, a decrease of 464,120 kg. The cumulative monthly export volume is 17,115,674 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan/kg. The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative year - on - year production of Hao Xiang Ni's red dates is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 21st, in the Alar region, the weather changed from light rain to cloudy with temperatures between 16 - 28°C. Jujube farmers are actively engaged in field management, and the jujubes are about to enter the sugar - increasing period. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on the fruits. On Thursday, the red date 2601 contract closed up 0.39% [2].

落地前，新作减产预期支撑红枣期货价格，但是随着前期价格上涨消化减产利多，红枣2601合约短期偏强 数据来源第三方(我的农产品网、海关总署、郑商所)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 调整，关注新作产量。操作上，建议短线交易为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 红枣产业日报 2025-08-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 11530 | -20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The red jujube futures market is experiencing significant price fluctuations due to a combination of adverse weather conditions in southern Xinjiang and high inventory levels, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since late June, trading volume for red jujube futures has increased significantly, with prices showing heightened volatility [1]. - Adverse weather, including sandstorms and high temperatures, has raised concerns about reduced yields for the new season, causing prices to rise from 9,800 yuan per ton to over 11,000 yuan [2]. - Despite initial price increases, the market has seen a rapid decline due to high inventory levels and cautious purchasing behavior from traders and processors [2][3]. Group 2: Production Estimates - There is considerable disagreement among industry experts regarding the expected reduction in red jujube production for 2025, with estimates ranging from a 5% to 25% decrease compared to 2024 [3]. - A report from Mysteel suggests a production estimate of 560,000 to 620,000 tons for the new season, while another source indicates a potential drop to 420,000 tons, reflecting a 35% decrease from normal production levels [3][4]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand - As of the end of July, national red jujube inventory remains high, estimated between 400,000 to 450,000 tons, with significant stock in Hebei province [5]. - The market is expected to maintain a loose supply-demand balance, with projected inventory levels of 300,000 to 350,000 tons even during the peak consumption season from August to October [5]. - Weak downstream demand and changing consumer habits are limiting price increases, with traders adopting a cautious purchasing strategy [5][6]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Key factors to monitor include the production data expected in October, inventory depletion rates, and weather conditions in September, particularly rainfall in Xinjiang, which could impact fruit quality and market sentiment [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The market sentiment of red dates has improved, and the inventory reduction process is progressing well. The new season's crops are in the critical fruit - setting period, with an expected production decline of 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, and an estimated new - season production of 56 - 62 million tons. Overall, the improving trading atmosphere and expected reduction in new - season production support the upward trend of red date futures prices. Technically, the red date 2601 contract is in an upward channel, and it is recommended to conduct long - biased trading [8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Weekly Highlights Summary** - **Market Trend**: This week, the price of the main red date contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased by 0.04% [8][11]. - **Inventory Status**: As of the 32nd week, the physical inventory of 36 red date sample points was 9,784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from last week, a 2.54% week - on - week decrease, and a 72.62% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Production Forecast**: The new - season production is expected to decrease by 5 - 10% compared to 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an estimated production of 56 - 62 million tons [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to conduct long - biased trading, with the support level for the red date 2601 contract at 11,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Future Trading Reminders**: Weather and consumption are the key factors to watch [8]. **Futures and Spot Market Conditions** - **Futures Price**: The price of the main red date contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased by 0.04% this week [8][11]. - **Futures Position**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in red date futures was - 16,035 lots [15]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of this week, the number of red date warehouse receipts was 9,214 [17]. - **Futures Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the 2605 and 2601 contracts of red date futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 140 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey dates and the main red date futures contract was - 1,095 yuan/ton [22]. - **Purchase Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the unified purchase prices of red dates in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar were 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6 yuan/kg respectively [25]. - **First - Grade Spot Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the wholesale prices of first - grade grey dates in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 4.60 yuan/jin and 4.75 yuan/jin respectively [29]. - **Extra - Grade Spot Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the wholesale prices of extra - grade grey dates in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 10.45 yuan/kg and 10.5 yuan/kg respectively [33]. **Industrial Chain Conditions** - **Supply - Inventory**: As of the 33rd week, the physical inventory of 36 red date sample points was 9,686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons from last week, a 1.00% week - on - week decrease, and a 79.94% year - on - year increase [38]. - **Supply - Production**: The 2024/25 production season of red dates is expected to see a recovery in production as the crops are growing well [43]. - **Demand - Export**: In June 2025, China's red date exports were 1,765,107 kilograms, a 20.82% month - on - month decrease, and the cumulative exports from January to June were 17,115,674 kilograms, an 11.50% month - on - month increase [46]. - **Demand - Trading**: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang Red Date Good Brand had no trading volume [50]. **Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation** - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for red dates this week was presented, but no specific data was provided [52]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of HaoXiangNi was presented, but no specific data was provided [54].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report advises to view the jujube futures price from a bullish perspective in the near term, suggesting to continue holding long positions in the CJ601 contract and be cautious about the position limit and expiration risks of the CJ509 contract. For the long - term, it recommends waiting for the end of the opening - price game and then shorting the CJ605 contract opportunistically [1][2]. 2) Core Viewpoints The current jujube market is in a state of production game. The spot price in the sales area is rising steadily, and the futures price is oscillating upwards. The market's focus is on the supply side, with significant differences in the expected production of new - season jujubes between the long and short sides. The upstream is bullish, and combined with the steady increase in the spot price, it has pushed the futures price to break through and rise. The CJ601 contract shows an obvious strengthening trend [1]. 3) Summary by Content Spot Market - Xinjiang jujubes have entered the swelling period, and some first - crop fruits are starting to turn red. Last week, the spot sales in the sales area accelerated. The spot price in Cangzhou was stable with an upward trend, and the prices of high - quality goods were gradually strengthening. The average prices of super - grade and first - grade jujubes were 10.12 yuan/kg and 9.15 yuan/kg respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/kg and 0.32 yuan/kg [1]. Futures Market - Recently, the jujube futures price has been oscillating upwards, breaking through the previous high pressure level last Friday. The market's trading focus is still on the supply side, and there are large differences in the expected production of new - season jujubes between the long and short sides. The total open interest of jujube futures increased to more than 230,000 lots on Friday, remaining at a historical high, indicating intense long - short contradictions. The market recognizes the expected reduction in new - season jujube production due to adverse weather in June - July, but there are large disputes over the reduction range. The disputes over production will ultimately shift to the expected game of the new - season opening price. The upstream is bullish, and combined with the recent steady increase in the spot price, it has pushed the jujube futures price to break through and rise. Technically, the CJ601 contract shows an obvious strengthening trend [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current jujube market has a seasonal demand slump and high inventory of old jujubes, but there is periodic replenishment to support prices. The new - season jujubes are in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the producing areas. The estimated new - season output is expected to decline by 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an estimated output of 56 - 62 million tons. The reduction is less than the absolute low in 2023. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the fundamentals. The implementation of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption by ten departments including the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs boosts market confidence. In the short term, market sentiment dominates the price fluctuations, and it will return to the fundamentals later. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the new - season output [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main jujube futures contract is 10,790 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 136,558 lots (a decrease of 1,475 lots), the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 2,568 lots, the number of warehouse receipts is 8,739, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1,455 [2]. Spot Market - The prices of jujube in different regions vary. For example, the unified - grade jujube price in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the first - grade grey jujube wholesale price in Hebei is 4.45 yuan/jin, and the special - grade jujube price in Guangdong is 11 yuan/kg [2]. Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares (a decrease of 41,000 hectares) [2]. Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 10,090 tons (a decrease of 230 tons from last week, a 2.23% week - on - week decrease and a 73.07% year - on - year increase), the monthly jujube export volume is 1,765,107 kg (a decrease of 464,120 kg), and the cumulative monthly export volume is 17,115,674 kg [2]. Downstream Situation - The jujube wholesale price in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 1.47 yuan/kg. The cumulative sales volume of Haoxiangni's jujubes is 36,480.43 tons (a decrease of 2,981.06 tons), and the cumulative year - on - year jujube production of Haoxiangni is - 34.59% [2]. Industry News - On July 29, there was light rain in Aksu with temperatures between 18 - 32°C. Jujube farmers are actively managing their orchards. The mainstream per - mu yield is estimated to be between 700 - 800 kg. The 2601 jujube futures contract fell 1.33% on Tuesday [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined, with a weekly drop of approximately 2.36%. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,320 tons, a decrease of 110 tons from last week, a 1.05% week - on - week decrease and a 74.89% year - on - year increase. As the weather gets hotter and seasonal fresh fruits are on the market, the demand for jujubes is in a seasonal off - peak, and inventory digestion is slow. The new - season jujube trees are in the critical fruit - setting period, and their growth is relatively good. The production reduction may be less than expected. It is expected that the price of the main jujube contract will be weakly volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the situation of the second - crop flowers and fruits. Future trading should focus on weather impacts and the consumer end [8][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures declined, with a weekly drop of about 2.36% [8][11]. - **Market Outlook**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,320 tons, a 1.05% week - on - week decrease and a 74.89% year - on - year increase. Due to seasonal factors, jujube demand is weak, and inventory digestion is slow. The new - season jujube trees are growing well, and the production reduction may be less than expected. The price of the main contract is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the second - crop flowers and fruits [8]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Focus on weather impacts and the consumer end [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures dropped by about 2.36% this week [11]. - **Top 20 Positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 22,674 lots [13]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 8,971 [18]. - **Futures Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the 2509 and 2601 contracts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures was - 1020 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the Hebei gray jujube spot price and the main jujube futures contract was - 630 yuan/ton [22]. - **New - Season Purchase Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the purchase prices of jujube bulk goods in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar were 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6 yuan/kg respectively [25]. - **First - Class Spot Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the wholesale prices of first - class gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 4.3 yuan/jin and 4.35 yuan/jin respectively [30]. - **Superior - Grade Spot Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the wholesale prices of superior - grade gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 9.71 yuan/kg and 9.8 yuan/kg respectively [34]. 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side - Inventory**: According to Mysteel's data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,320 tons, a 1.05% week - on - week decrease and a 74.89% year - on - year increase, showing a slight decline this week [38]. - **Supply - Side - Production**: The jujube crop is growing well, and it is expected that the production in the 2024/25 season will recover [43]. - **Demand - Side - Export**: In May 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2,229,227 kg, a 5.61% year - on - year decline. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 15,350,567 kg, a 16.99% cumulative year - on - year increase [47]. - **Demand - Side - BOCE Trading**: This week, the order volume of the BOCE Xinjiang Zao Hao brand was not traded [51]. 4. Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of the at - the - money jujube options this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data is given [53]. - **Stock Market - Haoxiangni**: A chart of Haoxiangni's price - earnings ratio is provided, but no specific data or analysis is given [55].

，减产幅度可能不如预期，红枣主力价格短期回落，持续关注二茬花果情况。 数据来源第三方(我的农产品网、海关总署、郑商所)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 红枣产业日报 2025-07-15 | 数据指标 | 项目类别 | | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 期货市场 | | 10280 | -110 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | | 132979 | -1700 115 | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | | | -13720 | 3085 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | | 9122 | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | | | 1448 | -146 | | | | | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 现货市场 | 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 6 | | | 4.3 | 0 | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | | 0 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 5. ...