Market Trends - On November 4, 2025, red date futures fell by 5.55%, closing at 9695 yuan/ton, while put options surged, with red date 2601 put 9500 rising by 173.81% from 42.0 yuan to 115 yuan, and red date 2601 put 10000 increasing by 98.3% [2] - The market sentiment shifted from speculation about reduced production to concerns about oversupply due to multiple factors, including the new season's concentrated listing, high old stock levels, weak downstream demand, and changes in delivery systems [2] Price Movements - Prior to the recent decline, red date futures experienced a bullish phase from June to August, rising from 8560 yuan/ton to 11825 yuan/ton, but after October 17, prices dropped significantly, falling below 10000 yuan/ton [4] - The market's expectations of a significant reduction in new season production have not materialized, with current prices reflecting a likely small reduction instead [5] Supply Dynamics - The new season's harvest has begun earlier than last year, with prices in various regions ranging from 6.30 to 10.00 yuan/kg, indicating a higher acquisition price compared to last year [6][7] - The overall production for 2024 is projected at 606.9 million tons, a 110% increase from 288.2 million tons in 2023, leading to significant supply pressure [8] Inventory Levels - Current inventory levels are at their highest in recent years, with a reported increase of 120.78% year-on-year, indicating slow consumption and a potential for further accumulation as new dates are harvested [10] Demand Insights - The demand for red dates is primarily domestic, with a small export share, and traditional consumption patterns are shifting, leading to a decrease in the use of red dates in cooking [12] - The market is currently dominated by old stock transactions, with a notable decline in purchasing enthusiasm from buyers as prices have risen [12] Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent price drop is influenced by the ongoing debate over production levels, with expectations leaning towards a smaller reduction than initially thought [13][14] - The market faces dual pressures from the new season's harvest and high old stock levels, with a potential for continued price weakness if consumer demand does not improve [15][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the third quarter, without continuous bullish weather conditions, the price of jujube futures rose first and then fell, and the position volume reached a record high since its listing [6]. - The spot price of jujubes in the third quarter started high, then declined, and rebounded with overall low - level fluctuations [32]. - There is a large gap in the estimated new - season jujube production in 2025 among different research institutions [49][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Jujube Futures and Spot Price Trends - **Futures Price**: The price of jujube futures rose and then fell in the third quarter, with the position volume at a high level since listing. Data on the closing prices of jujube 2509, 2601, and 2505 contracts, as well as the month - to - month spreads between 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 contracts, and the jujube warehouse receipt registration volume are presented [6][10][13]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of jujubes in the third quarter started high, then declined, and rebounded with overall low - level fluctuations. The spot price of general jujubes in Xinjiang's production areas started high, but the increase was lower than market expectations. By the end of October, the premium of the jujube 2601 contract over the spot (standard Cangzhou special - grade) narrowed [32][35][38]. - **Price Correlation and Volatility**: Jujube futures and apple futures show a weak correlation. The one - year volatility of the jujube 2601 contract is also presented, along with the monthly price change data of jujube spot prices from 2018 - 2025 [42][45][47]. 3.2 Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **Production**: There is a large gap in the estimated new - season jujube production in 2025 among different research institutions. The estimated production ranges from 20 - 460,000 tons, with a reduction of 14% - 40% compared to the normal - year output of 650,000 tons. In 2024, the jujube production in Xinjiang increased significantly, reaching 700,000 tons, and institutions predict that the production in 2025 may be around 500,000 tons [49][50][53]. - **Inventory**: The spot inventory of jujubes decreases seasonally and will start to accumulate seasonally in November. Data on the inventory, production, consumption, and other aspects from 2019/20 - 2024/25 are also provided [54][56][57]. 3.3 Weather Conditions in October's New - Season Listing Period - The weather was generally good during the new - season jujube listing period in October. The growth stages of jujubes include eight stages: germination, early flowering, full - flowering, young - fruit, rapid - growth, maturity, leaf - falling, and dormancy [58][61][62].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the red date market, highlighting a significant increase in inventory levels and a decline in futures prices, attributed to a combination of factors including production levels and consumer demand [1][8][16]. Group 1: Inventory and Production - As of October 31, 2025, physical inventory of red dates reached 9,348 tons, an increase of 245 tons week-on-week, representing a 2.69% rise compared to the previous week and a 120.78% increase year-on-year [1][8]. - The 2024 production year in Xinjiang saw a record yield of 750,000 tons, leading to slow consumption of old date inventory [1][8]. - The market consensus indicates a slight reduction in new season production, with estimates ranging from 400,000 tons to 550,000 tons, reflecting significant disagreement among market participants [5][6]. Group 2: Price Trends - The main contract for red dates closed at 10,145 yuan/ton on October 31, 2025, down 1.46%, with a weekly decline of 5.63%, marking the largest drop among domestic commodity futures [2]. - Since October 17, the futures price has dropped by 11.17%, while the corresponding spot price for dried red dates only decreased by 0.84% [2][13]. - The price fluctuations are attributed to the market's reaction to the anticipated production levels and the increasing inventory pressure due to weak consumer demand [13][16]. Group 3: Consumer Demand and Market Dynamics - The overall performance of red date consumption has been lackluster, with a noted 20-day reduction in the traditional peak consumption period leading up to the Spring Festival [11]. - Promotional activities have intensified as merchants attempt to clear old inventory, with significant discounts observed in retail settings [8][9]. - The market is currently characterized by cautious purchasing behavior, with many buyers opting for on-demand procurement rather than bulk purchases [11][16]. Group 4: Regulatory Changes - New delivery regulations allow for the delivery of old dates at a discount, which may impact market dynamics and pricing strategies [12][15]. - The changes in delivery rules are expected to stabilize the futures market while aligning it more closely with the spot market [15].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for agricultural products shows a downward trend, particularly in red dates, with significant fluctuations in prices and production estimates indicating a potential decrease in output compared to previous years [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for red date futures opened at 11,200.00 CNY/ton, experiencing a price drop of approximately 3.34% during the trading session [1] - The highest price reached was 11,215.00 CNY, while the lowest was 10,840.00 CNY [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - As of October 23, physical inventory in 36 sample points was reported at 9,103 tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 94 tons and a year-on-year increase of 109.22% [1] - Due to climatic conditions, the maturity period for Xinjiang red dates is earlier than last year, with some orchards already harvesting before the frost period [1] - Preliminary estimates suggest a production decrease of 5-10% compared to 2022 and a 20-25% decrease compared to 2024, with new season production expected to be between 560,000 to 620,000 tons [1] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Dalian Futures indicates that future price movements will depend on new season production, quality, and opening prices, with potential for prices to rise if production decreases are confirmed and consumption recovers [1] - East Securities Futures highlights that the upcoming week is critical for determining the acquisition prices before harvesting, suggesting a cautious approach until prices stabilize [2]

Core Viewpoint - The red date futures market has seen a slight increase, with expectations of a decrease in new season production, leading to potential price fluctuations in the near term [1] Futures Market Summary - The red date 2601 contract rose slightly, closing at 11,155 yuan/ton on September 12, an increase of 155 yuan/ton or 1.41% from the previous period [1] - The new season production is estimated to decline by 5-10% compared to 2022 and by 20-25% compared to 2024, with projections between 560,000 to 620,000 tons [1] Spot Market Summary - The purchase price for Xinjiang gray dates for the 2024 production season ranges from 4.50 to 5.50 yuan/kg, with an average purchase price of 5.33 yuan/kg [1] - The spot price for Hebei first-grade gray dates remains stable at 9,500 yuan/ton, with a basis of CJ01 - 1655, down 155 from the previous period [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market has seen low arrival volumes this week, with general purchasing enthusiasm and transaction activity being subdued, indicating unresolved supply-demand conflicts [1] - Physical inventory at 36 sample points in the Hebei Cui'er Zhuang market is 9,321 tons, down 89 tons or 0.95% from last week [1] Quality and Inventory Concerns - The 2024 production season is characterized by high production and inventory levels, but with poor quality, leading to slow inventory depletion [1] - There are concerns regarding the quality of the new season dates due to transitional over-exploitation issues, with no significant changes observed during the sugar accumulation period [1] Price Outlook - The spot prices in the sales area have been adjusted downward, with weak purchasing and sales activity [1] - If subsequent production assessments fall short of expectations, red date prices may continue to rise, particularly with the upcoming holiday stocking demand, making short-term price increases more likely [1] Strategy and Risks - The strategy is neutral, with the potential for short-term price increases due to unverified production cuts [1] - High inventory levels of old dates necessitate attention to the production of new dates, as any production shortfall could lead to a return to weaker price conditions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market acknowledges the potential reduction in the new season's production, but there are differences in production estimates. Mysteel initially estimates that the new - season production will decrease by 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an expected output of 56 - 62 million tons. Before the production is finalized, the expectation of a new - season production cut supports the red date futures price. However, as the previous price increase has digested the positive impact of the production cut, the driving force for the red date 2601 contract has weakened. It is expected to have a short - term strong adjustment, and attention should be paid to the actual new - season production. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main red date futures contract is 11,470 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 136,661 lots, with an increase of 1,130 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,464 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts is 9,826. The total number of valid warehouse receipt forecasts is 1,237, with an increase of 1 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The prices of red date products in different regions remain stable. For example, the unified price of red dates in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.8 yuan/jin, and the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong is 11.5 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual red date production is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, with a decrease of 4.1 in the area [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 9,686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons compared to last week, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 79.94%. The monthly export volume of red dates is 1,765,107 kg, a decrease of 464,120 kg. The cumulative monthly export volume is 17,115,674 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan/kg. The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative year - on - year production of Hao Xiang Ni's red dates is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 21st, in the Alar region, the weather changed from light rain to cloudy with temperatures between 16 - 28°C. Jujube farmers are actively engaged in field management, and the jujubes are about to enter the sugar - increasing period. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on the fruits. On Thursday, the red date 2601 contract closed up 0.39% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Before the new - season production is finalized, the expectation of reduced production of new - season crops supports the futures price of red dates. However, after the previous price increase digested the positive impact of reduced production, the red date 2601 contract will have a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to focus on the new - season production and conduct short - term trading [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates was 11,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 135,531 lots, a decrease of 8,102 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 11,868 lots, an increase of 2,517 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 9,832, and the total valid warehouse receipt forecasts were 1,236, a decrease of 343 [2] 现货市场 - The prices of red dates in various regions remained mostly stable, with the price of Hebei red date special grade decreasing by 0.02 yuan/kg to 10.44 yuan/kg [2] Upstream Market - The annual production of red dates was 606.9 million tons, an increase of 318.7 million tons; the planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national red date inventory was 9,686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons compared to last week, a 1.00% month - on - month decrease and a 79.94% year - on - year increase. The monthly export volume of red dates was 1,765,107 kg, a decrease of 464,120 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume was 17,115,674 kg, an increase of 1,765,107 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi Province was 20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan. The cumulative sales volume of red dates by HaoXiangNi was 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative year - on - year production of red dates by HaoXiangNi was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2] Industry News - On August 20th, the weather in Aksu changed from sunny to light rain, with temperatures between 14 - 26°C. The jujube farmers were actively engaged in field management. The mainstream per - mu yield was 700 - 800 kg. The red date fruits were in the fruit - swelling stage, and the first - crop large fruits had gradually turned red. Attention should be paid to the rainfall. On Wednesday, the red date 2601 contract closed down 0.77%. According to Mysteel's research data, the physical inventory of red dates in 36 sample points in the 33rd week was 9,686 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The red jujube futures market is experiencing significant price fluctuations due to a combination of adverse weather conditions in southern Xinjiang and high inventory levels, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since late June, trading volume for red jujube futures has increased significantly, with prices showing heightened volatility [1]. - Adverse weather, including sandstorms and high temperatures, has raised concerns about reduced yields for the new season, causing prices to rise from 9,800 yuan per ton to over 11,000 yuan [2]. - Despite initial price increases, the market has seen a rapid decline due to high inventory levels and cautious purchasing behavior from traders and processors [2][3]. Group 2: Production Estimates - There is considerable disagreement among industry experts regarding the expected reduction in red jujube production for 2025, with estimates ranging from a 5% to 25% decrease compared to 2024 [3]. - A report from Mysteel suggests a production estimate of 560,000 to 620,000 tons for the new season, while another source indicates a potential drop to 420,000 tons, reflecting a 35% decrease from normal production levels [3][4]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand - As of the end of July, national red jujube inventory remains high, estimated between 400,000 to 450,000 tons, with significant stock in Hebei province [5]. - The market is expected to maintain a loose supply-demand balance, with projected inventory levels of 300,000 to 350,000 tons even during the peak consumption season from August to October [5]. - Weak downstream demand and changing consumer habits are limiting price increases, with traders adopting a cautious purchasing strategy [5][6]. Group 4: Future Considerations - Key factors to monitor include the production data expected in October, inventory depletion rates, and weather conditions in September, particularly rainfall in Xinjiang, which could impact fruit quality and market sentiment [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The market sentiment of red dates has improved, and the inventory reduction process is progressing well. The new season's crops are in the critical fruit - setting period, with an expected production decline of 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, and an estimated new - season production of 56 - 62 million tons. Overall, the improving trading atmosphere and expected reduction in new - season production support the upward trend of red date futures prices. Technically, the red date 2601 contract is in an upward channel, and it is recommended to conduct long - biased trading [8]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Weekly Highlights Summary** - **Market Trend**: This week, the price of the main red date contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased by 0.04% [8][11]. - **Inventory Status**: As of the 32nd week, the physical inventory of 36 red date sample points was 9,784 tons, a decrease of 255 tons from last week, a 2.54% week - on - week decrease, and a 72.62% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Production Forecast**: The new - season production is expected to decrease by 5 - 10% compared to 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an estimated production of 56 - 62 million tons [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to conduct long - biased trading, with the support level for the red date 2601 contract at 11,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Future Trading Reminders**: Weather and consumption are the key factors to watch [8]. **Futures and Spot Market Conditions** - **Futures Price**: The price of the main red date contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange increased by 0.04% this week [8][11]. - **Futures Position**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in red date futures was - 16,035 lots [15]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt**: As of this week, the number of red date warehouse receipts was 9,214 [17]. - **Futures Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the 2605 and 2601 contracts of red date futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 140 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey dates and the main red date futures contract was - 1,095 yuan/ton [22]. - **Purchase Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the unified purchase prices of red dates in Aksu, Alar, and Kashgar were 4.8 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 6 yuan/kg respectively [25]. - **First - Grade Spot Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the wholesale prices of first - grade grey dates in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 4.60 yuan/jin and 4.75 yuan/jin respectively [29]. - **Extra - Grade Spot Price**: As of August 15, 2025, the wholesale prices of extra - grade grey dates in Cangzhou, Hebei, and Henan were 10.45 yuan/kg and 10.5 yuan/kg respectively [33]. **Industrial Chain Conditions** - **Supply - Inventory**: As of the 33rd week, the physical inventory of 36 red date sample points was 9,686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons from last week, a 1.00% week - on - week decrease, and a 79.94% year - on - year increase [38]. - **Supply - Production**: The 2024/25 production season of red dates is expected to see a recovery in production as the crops are growing well [43]. - **Demand - Export**: In June 2025, China's red date exports were 1,765,107 kilograms, a 20.82% month - on - month decrease, and the cumulative exports from January to June were 17,115,674 kilograms, an 11.50% month - on - month increase [46]. - **Demand - Trading**: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang Red Date Good Brand had no trading volume [50]. **Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation** - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for red dates this week was presented, but no specific data was provided [52]. - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of HaoXiangNi was presented, but no specific data was provided [54].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report advises to view the jujube futures price from a bullish perspective in the near term, suggesting to continue holding long positions in the CJ601 contract and be cautious about the position limit and expiration risks of the CJ509 contract. For the long - term, it recommends waiting for the end of the opening - price game and then shorting the CJ605 contract opportunistically [1][2]. 2) Core Viewpoints The current jujube market is in a state of production game. The spot price in the sales area is rising steadily, and the futures price is oscillating upwards. The market's focus is on the supply side, with significant differences in the expected production of new - season jujubes between the long and short sides. The upstream is bullish, and combined with the steady increase in the spot price, it has pushed the futures price to break through and rise. The CJ601 contract shows an obvious strengthening trend [1]. 3) Summary by Content Spot Market - Xinjiang jujubes have entered the swelling period, and some first - crop fruits are starting to turn red. Last week, the spot sales in the sales area accelerated. The spot price in Cangzhou was stable with an upward trend, and the prices of high - quality goods were gradually strengthening. The average prices of super - grade and first - grade jujubes were 10.12 yuan/kg and 9.15 yuan/kg respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25 yuan/kg and 0.32 yuan/kg [1]. Futures Market - Recently, the jujube futures price has been oscillating upwards, breaking through the previous high pressure level last Friday. The market's trading focus is still on the supply side, and there are large differences in the expected production of new - season jujubes between the long and short sides. The total open interest of jujube futures increased to more than 230,000 lots on Friday, remaining at a historical high, indicating intense long - short contradictions. The market recognizes the expected reduction in new - season jujube production due to adverse weather in June - July, but there are large disputes over the reduction range. The disputes over production will ultimately shift to the expected game of the new - season opening price. The upstream is bullish, and combined with the recent steady increase in the spot price, it has pushed the jujube futures price to break through and rise. Technically, the CJ601 contract shows an obvious strengthening trend [1].