红枣市场2026年年报 红枣：守正待时 静待风起 -2025年红枣市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 宋从志 Z0020712 ▷ 摘要: ● 2025 年商品整体仍然呈现高开低走。7月份商品整体受国内"反内卷"政策影响集体 出现大涨,8-9月份金融类资产仍然延续强势表现,但大宗商品受制于近端压力偏大,部 分跌回起点。农产品整体商品属性较强、金融属性不足、受情绪影响较小,走势出现分化, 红枣期价连续冲高未形成有效突破后,转为震荡下跌。新季红枣陆续下树,当前减产预期 有所降温。2025 年新作产量调研反馈来看，新疆红枣经历 2024 年大幅丰产后，2025/26 作季相较于去年产量仍有较大幅度下滑,相较于近年产量中位数也有小幅度下滑,但减产 水平远达不到例如 2021、2023年度的绝对小年程度;从质量上看,本作李平均质量有望 好于去年同期;目前 2024年旧作库存当前仍然处于相对较高水平,令近端现货仍然承压。 红枣过去发生过的价格牛市,基本都是天气主导,红枣产自我国西部地区,产区较为分散, 产地天气复杂多变,影响红枣产量的主要天气因素包括:温度、湿度、大风及光照水平, 其中高温和大风、暴 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Xinjiang merchants have high enthusiasm for purchasing red dates, actively finalizing orchards and trees, and have shipped the harvested goods to the inland. Point - price shipments by futures - cash companies have increased, and some merchants are actively purchasing old - season goods. The inventory at sample points shows an increasing trend. As of October 31, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points in the red date industry this week is 9348 tons, a week - on - week increase of 245 tons, a 2.69% week - on - week increase, and a 120.78% year - on - year increase. In the sales area market, the price in the Hebei market has slightly decreased, and merchants are selectively making small - volume purchases, with the current price acceptance being average. It is expected that the production area will enter the concentrated harvesting stage in early November. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in merchants' purchasing enthusiasm and purchase volume. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates is 9740 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the main contract position is 158,526 lots, down 20,402 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 8823 lots, up 982 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no change; the total number of valid warehouse receipt forecasts is 0, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The unified price of red dates in Kashgar is 7.35 yuan/kg, with no change; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.6 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan; the unified price of red dates in Alar is 7.05 yuan/kg, with no change; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Henan is 4.75 yuan/jin, with no change; the unified price of red dates in Aksu is 6.65 yuan/kg, with no change; the price of special - grade red dates in Henan is 10.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the price of special - grade red dates in Hebei is 10.29 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan; the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong is 11.6 yuan/kg, with no change; the price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong is 10.6 yuan/kg, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons; the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory this week is 9348 tons, an increase of 245 tons; the monthly export volume of red dates is 2,283,671 kg, a decrease of 81,222 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume is 23,548,402 kg, an increase of 2,283,671 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is - 2981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year output growth rate is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 3 trucks of goods arrived. The reference price for first - grade red dates is 8.80 yuan/kg, and 7.60 yuan/kg for second - grade. Old - season goods are more popular than new - season goods, and the prices of all grades in the market have declined. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 6 trucks of goods arrived, with sufficient supply. The reference price for super - special red dates is 12.30 yuan/kg, 11.50 yuan/kg for special - grade, 10.50 yuan/kg for first - grade, and 8.80 yuan/kg for second - grade. Merchants are selectively purchasing, and the acceptance of new - season goods in the market is average [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The new - season main - producing area's jujube growth is better than last year, and the new jujubes are expected to be harvested about a week earlier than last year. Attention should be paid to the new jujube purchase price. The physical inventory of 36 sample points as of October 9, 2025, decreased by 36 tons compared with last week, a 0.39% month - on - month decrease and a 93.89% year - on - year increase. During the Double Festival, the arrival volume in the sales area was small, and the number of customers was average. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the Zhengzhou Jujube 2601 contract in the short term [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for jujubes was 11,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 160,756 lots, a decrease of 2,198 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 3,401 lots, a decrease of 630 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 0, and the total valid warehouse receipt forecasts were 0 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The unified price of Kashgar jujubes was 6 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 4.75 yuan/jin, the unified price of Alar jujubes was 5.2 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Henan was 4.75 yuan/jin, the unified price of Aksu jujubes was 4.8 yuan/kg, the price of special - grade jujubes in Henan was 10.5 yuan/kg, the price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei was 10.61 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.06 yuan), the price of special - grade jujubes in Guangdong was 11.6 yuan/kg, and the price of first - grade jujubes in Guangdong was 10.6 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual jujube output was 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons; the jujube planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory was 9,167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons; the monthly jujube export volume was 2,364,893 kg, an increase of 580,729 kg; the cumulative monthly jujube export volume was 21,264,731 kg, an increase of 2,364,893 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of jujubes by Hao Xiang Ni was 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year quarterly jujube production growth rate was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 5 trucks of jujubes arrived, and after the weather cleared, the number of customers increased, with about 40% of the market transactions. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 1 truck of jujubes arrived, the price remained stable, and customers purchased as needed, with fair transactions in the market and cold storage [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include partial production cuts in some surveyed areas and possible impacts of rainy weather on jujube quality in some areas. Negative factors are high inventory, abundant market supply, the off - season for consumption in September, and the likelihood of a normal but relatively small - yield year according to the survey results [4] - This week, the temperature in the main production areas of Xinjiang grey jujubes is between 10°C - 28°C, and the jujube trees are in the sugar - increasing period. There is no extreme weather in the weather forecast, but attention should be paid to rainfall during the sugar - increasing period and changes in jujube fruit quality. In the sales areas, the daily arrival of goods is about 3 trucks, the price of high - quality goods is strong, and the market trading atmosphere is average. The average price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei this week is 10.39 yuan/kg, and the average price of first - grade jujubes is 9.50 yuan/kg, with the mainstream price unchanged from last week [4] - The trading strategy suggests short - term waiting and seeing for single - side trading, and no recommendations for monthly spread, volatility, and options trading [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price (Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in the main production areas of Xinjiang is 5.33 yuan/kg. The mainstream transaction price in Aksu is 4.8 yuan/kg, in Alar is 5.2 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar is 6.0 yuan/kg [6] Spot Price (Main Sales Areas) - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, about 10 trucks of goods arrived at the parking area this week. The supply of goods in the market is small, the market trading atmosphere is average, the spot price fluctuates slightly, and downstream buyers purchase as needed. The market grade prices are as follows: super - special grade is 11.50 - 12.50 yuan/kg, special - grade is 9.70 - 11.70 yuan/kg, first - grade is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg, second - grade is 7.80 - 8.60 yuan/kg, and third - grade is 6.30 - 7.00 yuan/kg [10] Spot Price (Hebei Cangzhou) - The spot grade price difference in the Hebei Cangzhou market is stable compared to the previous week. The price difference between special - grade and first - grade jujubes is 1.02 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg compared to last week. The price difference between first - grade and second - grade jujubes is 1.2 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [13] Sample Point Weekly Inventory - According to the survey data of Mysteel Agricultural Products, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9,203 tons, a decrease of 44 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 84.80%. The inventory of sample points has decreased [16] Sales Profit (Xinjiang Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in the main production areas of Xinjiang is 5.33 yuan/kg, and the price of first - grade finished products in the Hebei sales market is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg. The freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 600 - 630 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is equivalent to 2.36 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [19] Futures - Spot Basis (Special - Grade, First - Grade) - The futures price of jujubes has risen significantly, the spot price is stable, and the futures - spot basis has weakened slightly. The first - grade spot in Cangzhou has a discount of 585 yuan/ton compared to the standard delivery product [22] Contract Spread - No specific summary information provided other than the data charts Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of September 26, the number of registered warehouse receipts for jujubes is 6,743, and the number of valid forecasts is 58, totaling 6,801 [29]