2026-03-22 消费淡季运行 价格持稳成交一般 ——红枣周度报告 姓名：梁作盼 期货从业资格号：F3048593 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0015589 联系电话： 17615857579 公司网址： www.ztqh.com 本周观点 本页数据来源:Mysteel我的农产品 | | 利多因素 1、红枣质量同比偏好、价格同比基本持平；2、近期特级以上红枣价格需求较多 | | --- | --- | | | 利空因素 1、新旧季货量充裕，价格或承压；2、产销区红枣低位运行；3、多数货源需求一般 | | 市 | 当前新疆枣树仍处于休眠期，灰枣主产区气温在 1℃～15℃区间。由于入冬以来主产区积温普遍高于近年同期，枣树存在提前萌芽的可能性。 | | 场 | 年后市场逐步恢复，下游补货力度偏弱，红枣现货价格较节前基本持平。尽管节前新货购销情况尚可，但高库存格局尚未改变。节后市场虽 | | 基 | | | 本 | 存在阶段性补货需求，但随着天气转暖，红枣将逐步进入传统消费淡季，市场能否维持量平价稳仍待观察。 | | 面 | 现货价格方面，灰枣特级成品均价9.20元/公斤，一级均价7.90元/公斤，均与上周持平。 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the overall commodity market showed a pattern of high opening and low closing. Affected by China's "anti-involution" policy in July, commodities rose sharply. From August to September, financial assets remained strong, but bulk commodities were under pressure and some fell back to their starting points. Agricultural products showed a differentiated trend. After the red date futures price failed to break through effectively after consecutive surges, it turned into a volatile decline. The expectation of a new-season red date production cut has cooled down. The 2025/26 production season of Xinjiang red dates has a significant decline compared to last year and a slight decline compared to the median of recent years, but it is far from the absolute low-production years like 2021 and 2023. The average quality of this season is expected to be better than that of last year. The current inventory of the 2024 old crop is still at a relatively high level, putting pressure on the near-term spot market [2]. - The past bull markets in red date prices were basically weather-driven. The main weather factors affecting red date production include temperature, humidity, wind, and sunlight levels, among which high temperature, strong wind, and heavy rain can cause irreversible losses to production. The current red date price has fallen to a historical low, and the weather during the 2026 spring growing season is the main factor attracting market attention [2]. - Currently, the overall domestic agricultural product cycle is in a downward phase, with a large supply surplus pressure. Red dates are not typical agricultural products and are relatively less affected by the sector. The production cut of new-season red dates has been gradually fully priced in by the market. For the futures and spot prices to continue rising, new positive factors are needed. Due to the new delivery rules allowing old crops to be delivered at a discount, it is difficult for contracts before 2605 to have a high premium over the spot price. It is advisable to wait and see for the near-term contracts. After the spot inventory is depleted and the market shifts to the weather-driven stage, consider buying contracts after 2605 at low prices or going long on market volatility [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review 1. Red Date Spot Market - Not provided in the given content 2. Red Date Futures Market - In 2025, after the red date futures price failed to break through effectively after consecutive surges, it turned into a volatile decline [2]. 3. Red Date Futures Positioning and Trading Volume - The trading volume and trading amount of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange showed certain fluctuations from 2022 - 2025, with specific numerical data presented in the corresponding charts [46][47][48]. - The position volume of the red date index also showed fluctuations from 2021 - 2025, with specific numerical data presented in the corresponding chart [50]. Part II: Red Date Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 1. Red Date Production - In the 2024/25 season, red dates had a large harvest. The high price of general red dates in 2023 increased farmers' enthusiasm for field management, and the good weather throughout the 2024 production and harvest seasons led to a recovery in yield. According to Steel Union data, the output of Xinjiang grey dates in the 2024 production season was 700,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 230,800 tons or 67.10% [55]. - The 2025/2026 season is a low - production year after the increase. Initially, there were high expectations of a large production cut, but the good weather from August to October led to a much smaller actual production cut. The new - season grey date output is estimated to be about 650,000 tons, and the average quality is expected to be better than last year [55]. - The current mainstream view is that the red date planting area decreased slightly in 2025, and Xinjiang grey dates had an overall year - on - year production cut. By the end of October, institutional research showed that the production in Aksu and Alar might be cut by 40%, and in Tumushuke and Maigaiti, the cut was up to 30%. The overall new - year production is estimated to be about 500,000 tons, compared with 750,000 tons last year. If the actual output is less than 400,000 tons, the new - year supply - demand may be tight. The quality of new dates is good, and the supply may be similar to last year, with a relatively high number of warehouse receipts likely to be registered. The estimated inventory of old dates is about 300,000 tons [56]. 2. Red Date Import and Export - Not provided in the given content Part III: Main Weather Affecting Red Date Production - The main weather factors affecting red date production include temperature, humidity, wind, and sunlight levels. High temperature, strong wind, and heavy rain can cause irreversible losses to production [2]. Part IV: Seasonal Characteristics of Red Date Spot Price and Futures Spread 1. Seasonal Characteristics of Red Date Spot and Futures - The red date spot price shows certain monthly fluctuations. The average monthly price changes from 2018 - 2025 are presented in the table, with different trends in different months. For example, August has a relatively high average increase of 6.75%, while January has an average decrease of 6.37% [76]. - In 2025 specifically, the red date spot price also had fluctuations throughout the year, with significant increases in May and June and significant decreases in November and December [77]. 2. Inter - month Spread of Red Date Futures - Not provided in the given content Part V: Red Date Futures Technical Analysis and Volatility 1. Red Date Futures Technical Analysis - Not provided in the given content 2. Red Date Options - Not provided in the given content Part VI: Outlook for the 2026 Red Date Market - The current red date price has fallen to a historical low, and the weather during the 2026 spring growing season is the main factor attracting market attention. The new - season red date production cut has been gradually fully priced in by the market. For the futures and spot prices to continue rising, new positive factors are needed. It is advisable to wait and see for the near - term contracts. After the spot inventory is depleted and the market shifts to the weather - driven stage, consider buying contracts after 2605 at low prices or going long on market volatility [2][3]. Appendix: Stock Price Trends of Red Date - Related Listed Companies - The stock price trend of Hao Xiang Ni is presented in the corresponding chart, but no specific analysis is provided in the given content [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Xinjiang merchants have high enthusiasm for purchasing red dates, actively finalizing orchards and trees, and have shipped the harvested goods to the inland. Point - price shipments by futures - cash companies have increased, and some merchants are actively purchasing old - season goods. The inventory at sample points shows an increasing trend. As of October 31, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points in the red date industry this week is 9348 tons, a week - on - week increase of 245 tons, a 2.69% week - on - week increase, and a 120.78% year - on - year increase. In the sales area market, the price in the Hebei market has slightly decreased, and merchants are selectively making small - volume purchases, with the current price acceptance being average. It is expected that the production area will enter the concentrated harvesting stage in early November. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in merchants' purchasing enthusiasm and purchase volume. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates is 9740 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the main contract position is 158,526 lots, down 20,402 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 8823 lots, up 982 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no change; the total number of valid warehouse receipt forecasts is 0, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The unified price of red dates in Kashgar is 7.35 yuan/kg, with no change; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.6 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan; the unified price of red dates in Alar is 7.05 yuan/kg, with no change; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Henan is 4.75 yuan/jin, with no change; the unified price of red dates in Aksu is 6.65 yuan/kg, with no change; the price of special - grade red dates in Henan is 10.5 yuan/kg, with no change; the price of special - grade red dates in Hebei is 10.29 yuan/kg, down 0.06 yuan; the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong is 11.6 yuan/kg, with no change; the price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong is 10.6 yuan/kg, with no change [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons; the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory this week is 9348 tons, an increase of 245 tons; the monthly export volume of red dates is 2,283,671 kg, a decrease of 81,222 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume is 23,548,402 kg, an increase of 2,283,671 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is - 2981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year output growth rate is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 3 trucks of goods arrived. The reference price for first - grade red dates is 8.80 yuan/kg, and 7.60 yuan/kg for second - grade. Old - season goods are more popular than new - season goods, and the prices of all grades in the market have declined. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 6 trucks of goods arrived, with sufficient supply. The reference price for super - special red dates is 12.30 yuan/kg, 11.50 yuan/kg for special - grade, 10.50 yuan/kg for first - grade, and 8.80 yuan/kg for second - grade. Merchants are selectively purchasing, and the acceptance of new - season goods in the market is average [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The new - season main - producing area's jujube growth is better than last year, and the new jujubes are expected to be harvested about a week earlier than last year. Attention should be paid to the new jujube purchase price. The physical inventory of 36 sample points as of October 9, 2025, decreased by 36 tons compared with last week, a 0.39% month - on - month decrease and a 93.89% year - on - year increase. During the Double Festival, the arrival volume in the sales area was small, and the number of customers was average. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the Zhengzhou Jujube 2601 contract in the short term [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for jujubes was 11,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 160,756 lots, a decrease of 2,198 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 3,401 lots, a decrease of 630 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 0, and the total valid warehouse receipt forecasts were 0 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The unified price of Kashgar jujubes was 6 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 4.75 yuan/jin, the unified price of Alar jujubes was 5.2 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Henan was 4.75 yuan/jin, the unified price of Aksu jujubes was 4.8 yuan/kg, the price of special - grade jujubes in Henan was 10.5 yuan/kg, the price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei was 10.61 yuan/kg (an increase of 0.06 yuan), the price of special - grade jujubes in Guangdong was 11.6 yuan/kg, and the price of first - grade jujubes in Guangdong was 10.6 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual jujube output was 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons; the jujube planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory was 9,167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons; the monthly jujube export volume was 2,364,893 kg, an increase of 580,729 kg; the cumulative monthly jujube export volume was 21,264,731 kg, an increase of 2,364,893 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of jujubes by Hao Xiang Ni was 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year quarterly jujube production growth rate was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 5 trucks of jujubes arrived, and after the weather cleared, the number of customers increased, with about 40% of the market transactions. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 1 truck of jujubes arrived, the price remained stable, and customers purchased as needed, with fair transactions in the market and cold storage [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include partial production cuts in some surveyed areas and possible impacts of rainy weather on jujube quality in some areas. Negative factors are high inventory, abundant market supply, the off - season for consumption in September, and the likelihood of a normal but relatively small - yield year according to the survey results [4] - This week, the temperature in the main production areas of Xinjiang grey jujubes is between 10°C - 28°C, and the jujube trees are in the sugar - increasing period. There is no extreme weather in the weather forecast, but attention should be paid to rainfall during the sugar - increasing period and changes in jujube fruit quality. In the sales areas, the daily arrival of goods is about 3 trucks, the price of high - quality goods is strong, and the market trading atmosphere is average. The average price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei this week is 10.39 yuan/kg, and the average price of first - grade jujubes is 9.50 yuan/kg, with the mainstream price unchanged from last week [4] - The trading strategy suggests short - term waiting and seeing for single - side trading, and no recommendations for monthly spread, volatility, and options trading [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price (Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in the main production areas of Xinjiang is 5.33 yuan/kg. The mainstream transaction price in Aksu is 4.8 yuan/kg, in Alar is 5.2 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar is 6.0 yuan/kg [6] Spot Price (Main Sales Areas) - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, about 10 trucks of goods arrived at the parking area this week. The supply of goods in the market is small, the market trading atmosphere is average, the spot price fluctuates slightly, and downstream buyers purchase as needed. The market grade prices are as follows: super - special grade is 11.50 - 12.50 yuan/kg, special - grade is 9.70 - 11.70 yuan/kg, first - grade is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg, second - grade is 7.80 - 8.60 yuan/kg, and third - grade is 6.30 - 7.00 yuan/kg [10] Spot Price (Hebei Cangzhou) - The spot grade price difference in the Hebei Cangzhou market is stable compared to the previous week. The price difference between special - grade and first - grade jujubes is 1.02 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.22 yuan/kg compared to last week. The price difference between first - grade and second - grade jujubes is 1.2 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [13] Sample Point Weekly Inventory - According to the survey data of Mysteel Agricultural Products, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9,203 tons, a decrease of 44 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.48% and a year - on - year increase of 84.80%. The inventory of sample points has decreased [16] Sales Profit (Xinjiang Main Production Areas) - The average purchase price of grey jujubes in the main production areas of Xinjiang is 5.33 yuan/kg, and the price of first - grade finished products in the Hebei sales market is 9.00 - 9.80 yuan/kg. The freight from Aksu to Cangzhou is 600 - 630 yuan/ton, and the gross profit is equivalent to 2.36 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [19] Futures - Spot Basis (Special - Grade, First - Grade) - The futures price of jujubes has risen significantly, the spot price is stable, and the futures - spot basis has weakened slightly. The first - grade spot in Cangzhou has a discount of 585 yuan/ton compared to the standard delivery product [22] Contract Spread - No specific summary information provided other than the data charts Warehouse Receipt Quantity - As of September 26, the number of registered warehouse receipts for jujubes is 6,743, and the number of valid forecasts is 58, totaling 6,801 [29]