Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the resumption of production at Anhui Huainan Alkali Factory and the reduction in photovoltaic glass production will put pressure on soda ash prices, but the cost line of the ammonia - soda process and the marginal improvement in light soda ash demand provide phased support. In the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the game between capacity expansion and demand improvement. Before the supply - demand pattern changes significantly, soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Key factors to track in the future include the progress of plant resumption, the cold - repair scale of photovoltaic glass, and the implementation of policy details [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: On August 13, 2025, the soda ash futures market showed a "high - opening and low - going" trend. For the soda ash 2601 (SA601) contract, the opening price was 1408 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1423 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1375 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 1383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 2.49 million lots, a decrease of 745,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1.218 million lots, an increase of 64,000 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Variety Prices**: - Futures prices: For the soda ash 2509 contract, the opening price was 1293 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton or 0.47%; for the soda ash 2601 contract, the opening price was 1408 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton or 0.36%; for the soda ash 2605 contract, the opening price was 1458 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1437 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton or 0.42% [4]. - Domestic spot prices: Most domestic soda ash prices remained stable on August 13, 2025. For example, in the national market, the price of light soda ash and heavy soda ash remained unchanged at 1250 yuan/ton and 1350 yuan/ton respectively. The price of float glass decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 1169 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% [5]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Policy - related**: Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's "Stable Growth Plan for Ten Key Industries" mentioned the optimization of soda ash production capacity, the detailed rules for eliminating old - fashioned production capacity in late August have not been implemented, and the market's expectations for policy strength have cooled [6]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: - Maintenance continuation: Jiangsu Xuzhou Fengcheng (600,000 tons/year) has been under maintenance for 23 days, Anhui Huainan Alkali Factory (600,000 tons/year) postponed its resumption of production due to equipment problems, and Tangshan Sanyou (2.3 million tons/year) reduced its load to 70%, affecting a daily output of about 28,000 tons in total. - Capacity release: Shandong Haitian (1.5 million tons/year) increased its load to 70%, and Shandong Haihua (3 million tons/year) operated at a reduced load. The supply side showed a pattern of "local contraction, overall looseness" [6].