2025 年 08 月 15 日 纯苯：高位震荡 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z008016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BZ2603 | 6179 | 6237 | -58 | BZ2603-EB2508 | -1143 | -1085 | -58 | | BZ2604 | 6160 | 6204 | -44 | BZ2603-EB2509 | -1059 | -1060 | 1 | | BZ2605 | 6231 | 6222 | 9 | BZ2603-EB2603 | -1177 | -1169 | -8 | | BZ2603-BZ2604 | 19 | 33 | -14 | BZ2604-EB2604 | -1223 | -1212 | -11 | | BZ2604-BZ2605 | -71 | -18 | -53 | 山东纯苯价格 | 6235 | 6245 | -10 | | 纸货价格：N+ ...

黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z008016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BZ2603 | 6237 | 6250 | -13 | BZ2603-EB2508 | -1085 | -1072 | -13 | | BZ2604 | 6204 | 6200 | 4 | BZ2603-EB2509 | -1060 | -1072 | 12 | | BZ2605 | 6222 | 6242 | -20 | BZ2603-EB2603 | -1169 | -1183 | 14 | | BZ2603-BZ2604 | 33 | 50 | -17 | BZ2604-EB2604 | -1212 | -1241 | 29 | | BZ2604-BZ2605 | -18 | -42 | 24 | 山东纯苯价格 | 6245 | 6200 | 45 | | 纸货价格：N+1 | 6165 | 6170 | -5 | 山东纯苯价格-加氢苯价格 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Pure Benzene and Styrene Weekly Report [1] - Author: Huang Tianyuan from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Date: June 22, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the supply - side pressure of pure benzene remains high. Domestic production will increase significantly due to the peak of cracking unit commissioning (June - August) and the recovery of refinery operations in the second half of the year. The annual apparent demand is expected to grow by 8.9%, with a slower growth rate compared to the previous two years but still at a high level. The import volume in the first half of the year (especially from January to May) increased unexpectedly (year - on - year + 64%, mainly from South Korea), and the monthly average import volume in the second half of the year is expected to stabilize at around 450,000 tons. The annual import forecast is raised to 5.55 million tons (year - on - year + 28.7%). The production of hydrobenzene is expected to remain flat throughout the year, and its market position may improve in the second half of the year due to the futures listing and delivery rules. The downstream demand structure has changed significantly, with styrene becoming the core support (accounting for 46%), while the overall growth rate of the other "four small downstream" sectors has slowed down and shown differentiation [3]. - Styrene maintained a pattern of high profit, high operation rate, and low inventory in the first half of the year, benefiting from the contraction of overseas supply and high downstream production. However, this pattern will reverse in the second half of the year. On the supply side, the supply of styrene will be significantly restored with the large - scale restart of domestic and foreign plants and the potential commissioning of new capacities, as well as the recovery of overseas supply. On the demand side, the production scheduling growth rate of major downstream home appliances is weak, and the demand is under pressure during the traditional off - season in the third quarter due to weak domestic demand and the impact of trade policy uncertainties on exports. As a result, the high - profit state of styrene is difficult to sustain, and there is significant compression pressure in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of basis decline and profit compression. However, if export orders arrive in the fourth quarter and trade policies are favorable, styrene prices may still experience a phased rebound [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene - **Supply Situation**: In the first half of 2025, the price of pure benzene continued to decline. The reasons were the pre - Spring Festival market rush and excessive inventory accumulation, as well as the non - realization of the downstream production capacity commissioning expectations in the industrial chain. In the second half of the year, domestic supply will continue to increase, and the market will gradually shift to a destocking pattern. From January to May 2025, the total production of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The annual apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 is expected to be 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The apparent demand growth rates of pure benzene in 2023 and 2024 were 17.2% and 12% respectively. From January to May 2025, the import volume of pure benzene was 2.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 64%, 970,000 tons more than the same period last year. The production of hydrobenzene from January to May 2025 was 1.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.5% [10][11][14]. - **Demand Structure Changes**: The downstream structure of pure benzene has changed significantly. By May 2025, styrene accounted for 46%, caprolactam 20%, adipic acid 7%, aniline 10%, and phenol 16%. The apparent demand for phenol in 2025 is expected to be 6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The apparent demand for caprolactam in 2025 is expected to be around 7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual apparent demand for adipic acid is about 1.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. The apparent demand for aniline in 2025 is expected to remain at 3.61 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [34][36][42]. - **Terminal Demand Structure**: The terminal demand structure of pure benzene includes 17% related to real estate (real estate building materials and coatings), 53% in consumer goods (22% in home appliances, 15% in packaging and daily necessities, 16% in textile and clothing and footwear), 7% in automobiles and new energy, and 18% in new materials, electronic capacitors, and manufacturing equipment [52]. 3.2 Pure Benzene Futures - **Contract Rules**: The trading varieties are pure benzene, with a trading unit of 30 tons per lot, a minimum price change unit of 1 yuan per ton, a daily price limit of 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price, and a minimum trading margin of 5% of the contract value. The contract months are from January to December, and the trading time is from 9:00 - 11:30 am and 13:30 - 15:00 pm from Monday to Friday, as well as other trading times specified by the exchange. The last trading day is the fourth - last trading day of the contract month, and the last delivery day is the third day after the last trading day. The delivery grade is in accordance with the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pure benzene delivery quality standard, and the delivery location is the designated delivery warehouse of the Dalian Commodity Exchange. The delivery method is physical delivery, and the trading code is BZ [54]. - **Risk Control Measures**: The risk control system of pure benzene futures includes price limits and margin settings, general - month position limits of 2,000 lots (equivalent to 60,000 tons), position limits of 400 lots in the month before the delivery month, and position limits of 200 lots in the delivery month [55]. - **Delivery Standards**: Hydrobenzene and petroleum benzene are delivered at par. The futures delivery quality standard of pure benzene follows the national standard 545, using the international indicator system and requirements, which fully conforms to the actual situation of the spot market. The delivery system includes one - time delivery, rolling delivery, and futures - to - cash delivery, combining the factory warehouse and warehouse systems, with factory warehouse delivery as the main method and warehouse delivery as auxiliary [56]. - **Regional Premium and Discount Rules**: The Dalian Commodity Exchange sets delivery regions based on the principles of major production areas, major trading centers, and the same price system. The delivery regions include Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Guangdong, Shandong, Tianjin, Hebei, Anhui, and Liaoning, with different premium and discount settings [59]. 3.3 Styrene - **Supply and Demand Situation in the First Half of 2025**: In the first half of 2025, the global styrene production contracted. Styrene currently has a pattern of neutral inventory, high profit, and neutral production. It maintained a high - profit, high - operation, and low - inventory pattern in the first half of the year, benefiting from the contraction of overseas supply and high downstream production, and received concessions from the pure benzene segment [3][62]. - **Supply and Demand Outlook in the Second Half of 2025**: In the second half of the year, the supply of styrene will be significantly restored with the large - scale restart of domestic and foreign plants and the potential commissioning of new capacities, as well as the recovery of overseas supply. The demand is under pressure during the traditional off - season in the third quarter due to the weak growth rate of major downstream home appliance production scheduling, weak domestic demand, and the impact of trade policy uncertainties on exports. The port inventory of styrene will enter a clear inventory - building cycle from July to September after reaching the bottom in June. Therefore, the high - profit state of styrene is difficult to sustain, and there is significant compression pressure in the second half of the year. However, if export orders arrive in the fourth quarter and trade policies are favorable, styrene prices may still experience a phased rebound [3]. - **Downstream Product Situation**: The production and inventory of downstream products such as ABS, PS, and EPS also show different trends. For example, the inventory of ABS has increased significantly due to the increase in inventory samples, and the production and profit margins of various products are also affected by factors such as raw material prices and market demand [70].