Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to remain strong through the end of this year and into 2026, supported by new administration policies [3][4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is currently at 2.9%, with expectations it may decrease to 2.8%, still above the Fed's target of 2% [5][6] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement further rate cuts in the next two meetings, aligning with market expectations [4][5] - The Fed aims to gradually reduce inflation to 2% over the next two years, avoiding rapid changes that could destabilize the economy [6][9] Inflation Management - The Fed is expected to look through temporary inflationary effects from tariffs, which are anticipated to be smaller and delayed compared to previous expectations [8][9] - There is a discussion about potentially adopting a range for inflation targeting (2% to 3%) instead of a strict 2% target, although the current preference remains for a single target for clearer communication [10][11] Data Dependency and Challenges - The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report may be affected by a government shutdown, raising concerns about data availability for the Fed's decision-making [11][12] - The Fed has previously managed through similar situations, but the lack of data is not ideal for assessing the economy's state [12][13] Review of Economic Models - There is a call for a thorough review of the Fed's operational models, especially in light of the post-pandemic economic landscape [15][16] - The idea of running a new model in parallel with the existing one is suggested to improve future economic assessments [16]