智通财经APP获悉，2026年初，在德国经济复苏乏力的背景下，通胀率意外放缓至欧洲央行设定的目标 水平。据德国国家统计局周五公布的数据显示，2月份消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨2%，较1月份的 2.1%回落0.1个百分点。值得注意的是，此前接受调查的经济学家普遍预测该通胀率将维持稳定，此次 数据意外低于市场预期。 尽管德国经济在多年低迷后显现复苏迹象，德国联邦银行仍认为其增长势头仅属"疲弱"。财政刺激措施 预计将于春季开始显现更明显成效，推动今年经济增长至少达到1%，并助力通胀稳定在2%的目标水 平。 欧洲央行官员曾多次表态，对当前的借贷成本水平颇为满意，自去年6月起便未再对其进行调整，原因 在于通胀率一直徘徊在2%的目标值附近。经济学家普遍预测，至少到2027年底，利率将不会进行任何 调整，即便当前通胀率持续低于央行设定的目标区间。 欧元区通胀数据将于下周二公布，分析师普遍预测该数据将达1.7%。德国通胀的放缓将被法国和西班 牙超出预期的通胀压力所抵消——法国通胀率大幅攀升至1.1%(较前值增长近两倍)，西班牙则小幅上升 至2.5%。 尽管欧洲央行周五早些时候发布的调查显示欧元区通胀预期有所下降，但消费者 ...

期 货 研 究 2026 年 02 月 27 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：供应压力未缓解 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | T | T-1 | | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | 23845 | 10 | | 185 | -805 | 2245 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | 23780 | ー | | ー | l | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | 3142 | | -33 | 25 | -50 | 233 | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | | 266795 | | 28445 | 120299 | -388216 | 55077 | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | | 252168 | | 4008 | ...

Interest-rate cuts in the near term aren’t appropriate by the Fed until there’s more evidence that sticky inflation is declining, said Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee. Goolsbee, a voting member of the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee, also said the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down many of President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs could help cool inflation. “I remain optimistic that there can be more rate cuts this year. But that hinges on seeing actual progress on ...

20 Feb 2026 18:52:13 ET │ 19 pages Vi e w p o i n t | US Economics Weekly IEEPA passes torch to new tariffs CITI'S TAKE The Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under IEEPA, but the market reaction was limited given this was widely expected. The administration has already begun to reimpose tariffs through alternative authority, and we expect the average effective tariff rate to only fall slightly, if at all. Still, uncertainty is now higher as rates on individual countries and products are yet to be de ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may cut its target interest rate more than previously anticipated, which would positively impact financial markets and investor sentiment [3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cuts - Futures markets have initially priced in only two quarter-percentage-point cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, which are crucial for boosting stock prices and consumer spending [1]. - Despite pressure from the White House, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has committed to using economic data to guide monetary policy, resulting in no rate cuts in January [2][6]. - Recent trends indicate that inflation is falling faster than expected, which could provide the Fed with the opportunity to implement additional rate cuts beyond the initial two [4][5]. Group 2: Inflation Trends - Inflation has shown signs of decreasing, with consumer prices rising 2.4% annually in January, slightly below the expected 2.5% [5]. - The core Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.5%, marking the lowest level since April 2021 [5]. - If the downward trend in inflation continues, it may lead to a third or fourth quarter-percentage-point cut this year, as suggested by some Fed officials [6]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy - The potential nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair could complicate monetary policy, as he aims to cut rates while also reducing the Fed's balance sheet [7]. - Investors may anticipate a more aggressive rate-cutting approach if Warsh is confirmed, given his alignment with President Trump's views [7].

Economic Growth - The US GDP rose at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in Q4 2025, significantly below the expected 2.5% [1][7] - For the full year of 2025, the US economy grew at a pace of 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024 [2] Inflation Metrics - The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, increased to 2.9% in December, surpassing estimates of 2.7% [4][11] - The core PCE, excluding food and energy prices, rose 3% over the past year, indicating inflation reduction efforts have stalled [5] Federal Reserve Policy - Recent economic reports suggest the Federal Reserve may be reluctant to cut interest rates further this year [6] - The disappointing GDP report is expected to prolong disagreements among Fed policymakers regarding interest rate decisions [5] Government Impact - The GDP decline was partially attributed to a government shutdown, which influenced consumer spending and exports [7][10] - Government spending and investment fell by 5.1%, largely due to a 16.6% drop in federal spending during the shutdown [10] Economic Indicators - Despite the slowdown, final sales to private domestic purchasers rose by 2.4%, and gross private domestic investment increased by 3.8% [10]

美联储最新公布的会议纪要再次暴露决策层对利率未来走向的巨大分歧，除了支持降息派和观望派，纪要还首次明确提到有人讨论加息的可能性。 这反映出，在通胀持续高于联储目标2%、经济保持韧性的情况下，联储的政策重心重新回到通胀风险，而非就业放缓。 美东时间18日周三公布的会议纪要显示，在1月末的货币政策委员会FOMC会议上，"一些（Several）"与会者表示，支持在利率前瞻指引中采用"双向"表 述，以此"反映若通胀保持在高于目标水平，就可能适合"加息。这一措辞标志着，部分官员对通胀粘性的担忧明显增加。 另一些（Several）与会官员认为，若通胀如预期下降，就可能适合进一步降息。而大多数（Most）与会者警告，通胀回落至2%的进程可能比普遍预期"更 慢、更不均衡"。绝大多数（the vast majority of）参会者判断，近几个月就业方面的下行风险有所缓和，但通胀更加持久的风险依然存在。 本次纪要中"一些（Several）"这一用语多次出现，凸显了FOMC内部观点的差异程度。暴露美联储内部分歧的去年11月会议纪要公布后，媒体和有"新美 联储通讯社"之称的记者Nick Timiraos就指出，在联储的措辞中，许多 ...

Very interesting morning, Jon, with lots of data. As you mentioned, jobless claims come in a big drop, 206,000 for last week. That's down from the initially reported 227. Continuing claims are at 1,000,869, slightly up from 1,000,008 62 in the initially reported last week's figures.We also have trade numbers in the trade deficit for the month of December, 70.3% billion, significantly higher than the 53.0% billion reported for the month of November. Add in to that wholesale inventories up 2/10 and retail inv ...

Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. It's time for the big picture. Let's welcome in the team from Charles Schwab.Now we've got Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy and Michelle Gibli, director of international equity research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research. A very good morning to you both. All right, Coop, let's just start with you because we've got the 10ear back at 408, so we're off the lows of the year.The next event risk obviously that we're looking at is goi ...

Last Week’s Data Is Still Being DigestedAll of this new information is on top of last week’s US consumer price data, which increased less than expected in January, and a jobs report that came in higher than expected. Taking both reports into consideration alongside the weakness in gold, it looks as if traders believe the reports gave the Fed additional leeway for policy easing this year.What Gold Traders Want to Hear From the MinutesAs far as the minutes are concerned, gold traders will be looking for evide ...