Core Viewpoint - The labor market is cooling, increasing downside risks to employment while inflation risks are easing. The current monetary policy is in a mild tightening state, but the restrictive level is lower than before recent actions [1][4][8]. Group 1: Employment and Inflation Risks - As the labor market cools, the downside risks to employment have increased, while inflation faces reduced upward risks. The core inflation continues to trend downward without evidence of secondary effects from tariffs [7][9]. - The September non-farm payroll data showed mixed results, with an unexpected rise in unemployment, indicating a significant weakening in the job market [7]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - There is still room for further adjustments in the federal funds rate to bring the policy stance closer to neutral, balancing the dual objectives of the Federal Reserve [8][9]. - Following the recent rate cuts, there are noticeable divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the necessity of further cuts in December, complicating the decision-making process [6][8]. Group 3: Inflation Targeting Challenges - The Federal Reserve aims to restore inflation to the long-term target of 2% while avoiding excessive harm to the labor market. The expectation is that tariffs will continue to push prices higher next year, but inflation is projected to return to the 2% target by 2027 [9].

同时，中美之间达成贸易"休战"，对于美元而言同样是一个支撑。这意味着至少在1年之内，双方的贸 易政策会保持在可预期范围之内，关税水平和贸易限制会维持稳定。这实际上对于美国控制通胀有帮 助。另外，随着美国与一些国家相继达成贸易协议，美国与其他国家之间的实际关税水平也没有特朗普 此前宣称的那么大。这将扭转此前市场担心的通胀上升的前景，使得美元走弱预期发生转变。就此而 言，美国内部、外部的一系列变化，虽然不一定有利于美国经济，但却会改变美元的走势。 另外，从国际主要货币来看，欧元和日元都受限于自身问题，难以对美元相抗衡。日本方面，在高市政 府上台后，基本放弃了维持日元稳定、约束通胀的政策，改为进一步扩大财政刺激，推动日元贬值，以 刺激出口和资本市场。这导致日元兑美元汇率，回到了155左右。欧洲方面，欧元区经济第三季度勉强 实现0.2%的增长，略高于市场预期，但内部分化严重，德、法等核心国家经济仍然低迷。德国方面巨 额财政刺激效果并不理想，而法国仍然陷入财政预算的政治纷争之中。俄乌冲突的持续，更令欧洲经济 前景黯淡，也使得一度受到关注的欧元难以维持当前的地位。就此来看，即使在特朗普"保守主义"政策 之下，美国市场的深 ...

原油日报 | 2025-11-19 美沙会晤后预计欧佩克将维持现有产量计划 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨83美分，收于每桶60.74美元，涨幅为1.39%； 1月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨69美分，收于每桶64.89美元，涨幅为1.07%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.74%， 报466元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 美国至11月14日当周API原油库存 444.8万桶，前值130万桶。当周API投产原油量 30.3万桶/日，前值50.2万桶 /日。当周API汽油库存 154.6万桶，前值-138.5万桶。当周API精炼油库存 57.7万桶，前值94.4万桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 高盛预计，到2026/27年，TTF天然气价格将为29/20欧元/兆瓦时，JKM天然气价格将为10.50/7.30美元/百万英 热单位，以刺激额外的天然气需求。到2028/2029年，TTF天然气价格将达到每兆瓦时12/12欧元，JKM天然气价格 将达到每百万英热单位4.40/4.45美元，亨利港天然气价格将达到每百万英热单位2.70/2.75美元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Alberto Musalem, predicts a significant rebound in the U.S. economy in the first quarter of next year, driven by several positive factors including the end of government shutdowns, gradual implementation of fiscal support measures, the effects of previous interest rate cuts, and a moderately relaxed regulatory environment [1] Economic Outlook - Musalem emphasizes that the anticipated economic activity boost is expected to accelerate growth [1] - He notes that the current monetary policy is nearing a level where it no longer exerts downward pressure on inflation, indicating limited room for further rate cuts without risking economic imbalance [3] Inflation Concerns - Musalem reaffirms a strong commitment to restoring the inflation rate to the 2% target, highlighting that approximately 40% of current inflation is driven by tariff factors [4] - He points out persistent challenges from rising service prices and increasing financial pressure on middle- and low-income households, evidenced by a rise in reliance on food assistance and utility bill aid [4] Employment Market - Despite a slowdown in labor conditions and a potential temporary rise in unemployment due to government shutdowns, Musalem expects overall employment to remain stable near "full employment" levels [5] - Concerns are raised regarding high asset valuations, with reference to the Federal Reserve's recent Financial Stability Report indicating that U.S. housing prices and financial markets remain elevated compared to historical standards [5] Policy Balance - Musalem's statements highlight the challenge faced by the Federal Reserve in balancing economic growth support with inflation control, suggesting that policymakers will need to carefully assess data to ensure decisions promote recovery while maintaining price stability [6]

旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利在最新博客文章中表示，美国经济可能正在经历需求下滑，但关税相关通胀 目前看来得到控制。她强调美联储应以"开放心态"讨论，是否在今年已降息50个基点的基础上继续降 息。 在周一发布的文章中，戴利分析了当前经济形势，认为工资增长放缓指向"负面需求冲击"。她指出， 尽管价格增长仍然较高，但通胀水平总体可控，进口关税并未广泛推高物价水平。 戴利目前不具备联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）投票权，她强调，"制定正确政策需要开放心态，并深 入挖掘辩论双方的证据"。 对于12月是否继续降息，戴利没有发表具体观点。华尔街见闻此前文章提到，美国银行认为，鲍威尔在 10月降息后发表的谨慎言论，意味着启动12月降息的门槛已经提高，需要数据来"证明"其合理性，而 非"反驳"其必要性。 关税通胀影响范围有限 戴利在分析中特别关注了关税对通胀的影响程度。她表示，"迄今为止，关税的影响主要局限于商品领 域，很少蔓延到服务业通胀或通胀预期，后者仍相对良好地锚定在我们的目标附近"。 这一判断为美联储继续宽松政策提供了理论支撑。在贸易政策不确定性增加的背景下，戴利的表态显示 美联储认为关税对整体通胀的威胁相对可控。 历史经验 ...

Core Insights - The anticipated rebound in the crypto market has not occurred, with Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) facing pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainties [1][6] - Recent policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have created a cautious environment, delaying expectations for global monetary easing [2][4] Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve's October rate cut of 0.25% was its second easing this year, but the outlook for future cuts was reduced from four to two by 2026, indicating a "higher for longer" interest rate environment [3][4] - The Bank of Japan maintained steady rates but expressed concerns over global inflation and U.S. trade policies, prioritizing inflation control over growth [4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's remarks, the crypto market experienced significant sell-offs, with Bitcoin dropping below $107,000 and Ethereum falling into the $3,600 range, resulting in over $700 million in liquidations across major exchanges [5][6] - The crypto market's stagnation followed a mid-October flash crash that wiped out over $19 billion in leveraged positions, with altcoins plummeting up to 60% [7] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The renewed hawkish stance from central banks has led to increased caution among investors, pushing many traders to the sidelines as ETF inflows decreased by nearly $1 billion [7][8] - As November approaches, the crypto market remains in a holding pattern due to mixed signals from central banks and resurfacing global trade tensions [8]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming economic data releases in Europe, including GDP and inflation figures, are crucial for assessing the impact of U.S. tariffs on economic growth and inflation, with expectations of minimal growth in the Eurozone [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's Q3 GDP is expected to show a slight growth of 0.1%, with significant economic reports from major economies providing further insights [1]. - October inflation data is anticipated to decrease from 2.2% in September to 2.1%, indicating a potential easing of price pressures [4]. - A bank lending survey will be released, which will help evaluate the transmission of monetary policy to the real economy [4]. Economic Activity and Consumer Confidence - Recent corporate surveys indicate a potential recovery in the Eurozone economy, driven primarily by Germany's infrastructure and defense spending [6]. - Despite a strong labor market, consumer confidence remains low, raising concerns about the sustainability of private consumption recovery [4][6]. - The economic outlook for Germany is cautious, with warnings of potential stagnation and the risk of recession if negative growth persists [6][7]. Inflation Trends - The expected slowdown in inflation supports the European Central Bank's assertion that price growth is currently near target levels, with indications that inflation may remain below target in the coming months [9]. - There is a prevailing market sentiment that inflation risks are skewed to the downside, with potential implications for future interest rate discussions [9].

Core Viewpoint - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Alberto Musalem, indicated potential support for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of the month, while emphasizing the need for cautious decision-making [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - Musalem stated that he could support a further reduction in policy interest rates if there are additional risks in the labor market and inflation remains under control [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on October 28-29, with market expectations leaning towards another 25 basis point cut following the previous cut on September 17 [1] Economic Outlook - There are expectations that the Federal Reserve may lower rates again by the end of the year, but Musalem cautioned against making premature predictions about future actions [1] - He highlighted that the task of controlling inflation is not yet complete and that the Federal Reserve must avoid any potential persistent inflation, which could arise from factors such as tariff pressures, reduced labor supply, and economic slowdown [1] Price Pressures - Musalem noted that tariffs are currently increasing price pressures and are expected to impact the economy over the next two to three quarters [1] - He also mentioned that the labor market may face greater pressures moving forward [1]

Core Insights - The financial condition of American consumers has weakened compared to the peak during the pandemic, leading to more cautious spending behavior despite ongoing consumer expenditure supported by low unemployment and wage growth [1][2] - There is a structural shift in the labor market where companies are neither hiring nor laying off, indicating a significant change in the supply-demand relationship for labor [1] - The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in sectors like coding and call centers is driving productivity growth, which may help alleviate some cost pressures and support inflation control [1] Consumer Spending - Consumers are making trade-offs in their spending, indicating a shift from the more generous spending patterns observed in 2022 [1] - The spending capacity of households is increasingly constrained, particularly among middle and lower-income groups, while demand remains strong among higher-income individuals [1] Labor Market - The labor market is experiencing a notable change, with a high number of job seekers for each position, reflecting a significant shift in the dynamics of labor supply and demand [1] - Companies are facing a situation where labor demand and supply are shrinking at the same rate [1] Productivity and AI - The integration of AI technologies is seen as a factor that could significantly improve productivity, potentially offsetting some of the cost pressures faced by businesses [1] External Policy Uncertainty - Businesses are planning to pass on tariffs to consumers, indicating that trade policies are beginning to affect price transmission [1] - The current decision-making environment is complex, with the Federal Reserve facing higher uncertainty in monetary policy formulation due to fluctuating high-frequency data and accelerated structural changes [2]

Core Points - The UK unemployment rate has increased from 4.7% to 4.8%, indicating clear signs of weakness in the labor market [1] - This change is rapidly influencing monetary policy expectations, significantly increasing market bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England within the year [1] - Analysts from TwentyFour Asset Management suggest that the weak labor data provides the Bank of England with more room to initiate a rate cut sooner than previously anticipated [1] - Following the data release, the probability of a rate cut in December surged from 33% to 47%, reflecting investors' reassessment of the UK's monetary policy trajectory [1] - Despite the Bank of England's long-standing emphasis on prioritizing inflation control, the cooling labor market may weaken wage growth momentum, thereby alleviating core inflation pressures [1] - Policymakers may face a re-evaluation between maintaining high rates to combat inflation and mitigating economic downturn risks [1] - Currently, the Bank of England has not provided clear signals regarding the December meeting, but ongoing weakness in employment data could be a critical trigger for a policy shift [1]