Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to remain strong through the end of this year and into 2026, supported by new administration policies [3][4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is currently at 2.9%, with expectations it may decrease to 2.8%, still above the Fed's target of 2% [5][6] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement further rate cuts in the next two meetings, aligning with market expectations [4][5] - The Fed aims to gradually reduce inflation to 2% over the next two years, avoiding rapid changes that could destabilize the economy [6][9] Inflation Management - The Fed is expected to look through temporary inflationary effects from tariffs, which are anticipated to be smaller and delayed compared to previous expectations [8][9] - There is a discussion about potentially adopting a range for inflation targeting (2% to 3%) instead of a strict 2% target, although the current preference remains for a single target for clearer communication [10][11] Data Dependency and Challenges - The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report may be affected by a government shutdown, raising concerns about data availability for the Fed's decision-making [11][12] - The Fed has previously managed through similar situations, but the lack of data is not ideal for assessing the economy's state [12][13] Review of Economic Models - There is a call for a thorough review of the Fed's operational models, especially in light of the post-pandemic economic landscape [15][16] - The idea of running a new model in parallel with the existing one is suggested to improve future economic assessments [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is prepared to continue raising interest rates if the Japanese economy accelerates and core inflation steadily approaches the 2% target [1] - BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicated that the central bank will not preset policy paths but will make decisions based on actual data performance, reflecting a "data-dependent" policy approach [1] - Recent GDP data for Q1 2025 showed a 1.8% annualized decline, indicating weak external demand affecting recovery, yet the BOJ maintains a view that rising wages and prices will support gradual policy normalization [1] Group 2 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has fallen below key technical levels, with the conversion line at 145.55 and the base line at 144.26, indicating bearish sentiment [2] - There are significant options expirations at various levels, including 144.35-50, 145.00, and 145.50-55, which may influence market movements [2] - The USD/JPY is forming a bullish hammer pattern above 145, but is facing resistance from the cloud chart above [3] Group 3 - Resistance levels for USD/JPY are identified at 146.45 (cloud bottom), 147.67 (high on May 15), and 148.17 (Bollinger Band upper limit) [4] - Support levels are noted at 144.17-144.26 (21-day moving average and base line) and 144.00 (high on May 7) [5]