· 受助于美国官员称中美贸易谈判进展顺利，美国股市标普500指数周二收高，同时受到特斯拉大涨提振。美国公债收益率午后变化不大，经济学家预计消费 物价将上涨。美元上涨。油价下跌，但维持在七周高点附近。金价小幅走低，美元升值增加了金价压力。 | 股市指数 | 收报 | 日夜家1% | 年初至今变动% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纳斯达克指数 | 19714.99 | 0.63 | 2.09 | | 标普500指数 | 6038.81 | 0.55 | 2.67 | | 道琼斯工业均指 | 42866.87 | 0.25 | 0.76 | | 恒生指数 | 24162.87 | (0.08) | 20.45 | | 上证综指 | 3384.82 | (0.44) | 0.99 | | 利率 | 收报 | | 日变动% 年初至今变动% | | 美国2年期国债 | 4.0181 | 0.37 | (5.37) | | 美国5年期国债 | 4.0856 | 0.09 | (6.84) | | 美国10年期国债 | 4.4698 | (0.09) | (2.26) | | 美元1个月SOFR ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices remained volatile. The IMF lowered the global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%, and the Fed may cut interest rates if the job market deteriorates. The US significantly reduced tariffs on China, but the two sides have not entered the formal negotiation stage, causing market concerns. Domestically, industrial enterprise profits turned positive, and the central bank conducted net MLF injections. The domestic economic cycle is accelerating. Fundamentally, the spot TC negative value dropped to -$40, the domestic trade spot premium was high, and the B structure of the futures market narrowed. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain volatile, pending further clarity on the Sino-US trade situation [2][3][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Price Changes**: From April 18th to April 25th, LME copper rose from $9,254/ton to $9,360/ton, a 1.15% increase; COMEX copper rose from 470.5 cents/pound to 490.05 cents/pound, a 4.16% increase; SHFE copper rose from 76,140 yuan/ton to 77,440 yuan/ton, a 1.71% increase; international copper rose from 67,750 yuan/ton to 68,990 yuan/ton, a 1.83% increase. The Shanghai-London ratio rose from 8.23 to 8.27 [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of April 25th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas decreased to 563,461 tons, a 9.44% decrease from April 18th. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 9,950 tons, SHFE inventory decreased by 54,858 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 2,800 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 8,849 short tons [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro Factors**: The IMF lowered the 2025 global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%. The US may adjust tariffs on Chinese goods, and the Fed may cut interest rates if the job market worsens. Domestically, in Q1, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.8% year-on-year, and in March, they increased by 2.6% year-on-year [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The spot weekly TC once widened to -$40. The global mine supply is expected to remain tight in the medium term. Domestic smelters maintain high operating rates, but imports decreased in March. In terms of demand, the bidding progress of power grid investment projects is slow, but the start-up rate of cable enterprises in March rebounded to 73.6%. The new energy industry has stable copper demand growth [10]. - **Inventory**: As of April 25th, the total global copper inventory decreased to 563,000 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the LME0 - 3 structure turned to C. The cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 37.9%. SHFE inventory decreased by 55,000 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased by 2,800 tons. The COMEX copper inventory increased to 132,000 tons [8]. 3. Industry News - Peru's Antamina copper mine had a mining accident, and production is expected to be significantly affected. In February 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 61,000 tons. In Q1, MMG's copper concentrate production reached 120,000 tons, and the production of its African mine increased. The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China increased slightly, and the start-up of refined copper rod enterprises is expected to slowly recover in early May [12][13][14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in various regions, copper spot premium trends, and the net long - position ratio of COMEX copper non - commercial traders, etc., to visually display the market situation [15][16][19]