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割不动中国,美国收割印度,数万亿资金撤离,莫迪的重大失误
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-07 09:46
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant capital outflow from the Indian market, likening it to the financial turmoil of 1999, and highlights the challenges faced by the Modi government in managing the economy amidst this crisis [1][3]. Group 1: Capital Outflow - On October 3, a massive capital withdrawal occurred, with $1.017 billion in bonds and $18.5 billion in stocks sold off in a single day [5]. - The outflow is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments, which triggered a rapid shift of global funds away from emerging markets like India [5][12]. - The withdrawal is characterized as a strategic move by international capital, aiming to pressure the Indian government to relax foreign exchange controls [5][12]. Group 2: Economic Impact - India's economy is heavily reliant on foreign markets, with exports accounting for over 20% of GDP, making it vulnerable to external financial shifts [7]. - The depreciation of the rupee and rising prices have led to a loss of orders across various sectors, including textiles and IT services, impacting the overall economic landscape [9][10]. - Analysts warn that if the current trends continue, India's economy could regress to levels not seen since around 2000, representing a 24-year setback [3]. Group 3: Government Response - The Modi government is in a precarious position, needing to balance market stability with the demands of international investors [12][14]. - The government's inconsistent policy approach—oscillating between easing and tightening regulations—has created uncertainty, leading to frustration among foreign investors [12][14]. - The outcome of this crisis will be a critical test for the Modi administration, with potential long-term implications for India's economic trajectory [14].