乌兹日报网1月22日报道，据乌兹别克斯坦国家统计委员会统计，2025年，乌工业产值1101.1万亿苏姆 (约合902亿美元)，较上年增长6.8%。截至2026年1月1日，全国共有5.98万家工业企业，其中食品—1.19 万家(20%)、非金属矿物制品—8300家(13.8%)、服装—6000家(10%)、金属制品—4800家(8%)、家具— 4100家(6.9%)、纺织品—3700家(6.2%)、橡胶和塑料制品—2800家(4.7%)。 按工业生产统计，制造业产值947.2万亿苏姆(776.4亿美元)，占比86%，采矿业产值77万亿苏姆(63.1亿 美元)，电力、燃气产值70.8万亿苏姆(58亿美元)，供水、污水和废弃物处理产值6.1万亿苏姆(5.1亿美 元)。此外，2025年，乌开采天然气423亿立方米、石油65.57万吨、煤炭890万吨，生产汽油120.02万 吨、柴油115.81万吨、波特兰水泥2020万吨、纱线59.29万吨。 ...

人民币升值下的行业机会 20260127 摘要 人民币升值利好以美元计价成本的行业，如航空业（燃油成本）和地产 行业（美元债务成本下降），提升盈利能力。 人民币升值增强国内居民购买力，利好可选消费品行业，包括零售、轻 工制造、美容护理和纺织品等消费导向型行业。 历史数据显示，人民币升值期间外资倾向流入中国市场，利好中国优势 产业，如锂电池、半导体和工业金属等。 自 2015 年以来，人民币升值周期与 A 股指数通常呈现负相关关系，即 人民币升值时股市表现较好。2025 年四五月份至今，大盘行情与人民 币汇率走势基本一致。 成长风格板块在人民币升值背景下通常表现优于价值风格板块，市场风 格偏向成长性、高增长及弹性较大的板块，如科技、新能源等。 公用事业、地产、交通运输和非银金融等行业对汇率变化敏感，直接受 益于人民币升值带来的汇率损益。 人民币升值期间，外资流入明显增加，关注有色、新能源、电力设备及 电子等一级行业，以及锂电池、工业金属、半导体、光伏及通信设备等 二级细分领域。 Q&A 人民币升值对哪些行业具有潜在利好？ 人民币升值对一些行业具有显著的潜在利好，主要可以从成本、消费和资金流 三个维度进行分析。 ...

编辑：韩睿 "不走数字化这一步，未来肯定后悔。"从给父母店铺"打工"，到创立自主品牌，中奕科技纺织品总经理叶向东深刻意识到义乌全球数贸中心带来的数字化机 遇，并借此推动自家纺织品走向海外。他认为，每一代人都有每一代人的时代红利，通过义乌市场实现销售的数字化和产品的多元化，就是他要把握的时代 红利。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨纺织品、服装与奢侈品 [Table_Title] 12 月运动制造跟踪：鞋服多环比降速，越南出 口回暖——长江纺服周专题 26W03 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月运动鞋服订单多环比降速，整体景气度仍未现拐点。零售端，12 月美、英表观零售仍具 韧性，其余地区需求有所徘徊，此外美国消费者信心指数却持续下行，并未反映在品牌及上游 业绩中，我们认为是由于增长主要由高端消费拉动，大众服装消费预计仍待修复。出口端，越 南 12 月鞋服出口显著改善，中国仍承压。制造上游 2026H1 业绩确定性更强，下游运动链持 续修复方向确定。品牌服装收入 2025Q4 波动、2026 年盈利预计修复。红利标的仍有望受价值 型投资青睐。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于旭辉 魏杏梓 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524020003 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Title 12 月运动制造跟踪：鞋服多环比降速，越南出 2] 口回暖——长江纺服周专题 26W03 [Table_Summar ...

然而，经过几年，到了2024年，美国对中国的关税措施已经覆盖了数千亿美元的商品。尽管美国企业在此过程中承受了巨大的成本压力，消费者也不得不为 此埋单，但效果却远没有预期的那么显著。拜登上台后，虽然没有完全放松这一政策，依旧推进了芯片法案和通胀削减法案等一系列措施，强化了供应链多 元化，尤其大力推广友岸外包。在这种政策推动下，印度成为了热门的替代选择。这个国家拥有丰富的劳动力资源，同时政府提供了相应的补贴政策，以吸 引外资。 然而，事实的数据摆在那里：美国的对华贸易赤字并没有显著减少，中国依旧稳居美国的第三大贸易伙伴，2024年双边贸易额达到了5825亿美元。而印度和 美国的贸易额仅为1292亿美元，排在全球第十二位。美国试图通过印度取代中国的供应角色，但现实却是，印度出口到美国的太阳能电池板、手机等商品， 在2022年的增长幅度高达150%以上，2023年则更为显著。然而，这些商品的核心组件，仍然大多数来自中国。 贸易战的硝烟已经弥漫了数年，美国的失利似乎已成定局。自2018年特朗普政府开始对中国加征关税以来，华盛顿的战略意图非常明确：通过高额关税迫使 中国做出让步，遏制中美之间日益扩大的贸易顺差，同时希望将 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [9]. Core Insights - The current inventory replenishment cycle in the U.S. apparel industry is characterized by weak elasticity due to several factors, including K-shaped consumer spending, misalignment in brand recovery rhythms, and constraints faced by comprehensive sports brands [3][6]. - Despite the transition from inventory destocking to replenishment, the expected rebound in manufacturing performance and market response has not materialized as anticipated [6][19]. - The report forecasts limited replenishment elasticity in the near term, with potential improvements in terminal demand expected after the current interest rate cycle concludes [3][8]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the weak momentum in the current manufacturing replenishment cycle, noting that the U.S. apparel industry has transitioned to a phase of active replenishment after reducing inventory to healthy levels since Q1 2023 [6][17]. Analysis of Weak Replenishment Cycle - **Macro Perspective**: U.S. consumer spending is experiencing K-shaped differentiation, where high-income households support overall consumption while lower-income households face suppressed purchasing power and willingness to spend [7][32]. - **Brand Perspective**: The misalignment in recovery rhythms among brands has diluted overall replenishment elasticity, with brands like Adidas and Deckers already undergoing several quarters of replenishment without strong retail catalysts [7][30]. - **Industry Perspective**: The growth potential in the sports category is diminishing due to factors such as slowing penetration rates, reduced technological innovation, and diminishing returns from direct-to-consumer (DTC) strategies [7][30]. Future Replenishment Elasticity Expectations - In the short term, historical inventory cycles suggest that mature brands may experience shorter replenishment periods, while growth-oriented brands could see longer cycles [8][19]. - The report indicates that after the current interest rate cycle, retail demand may improve, leading to a more resilient growth trajectory for top brands transitioning into replenishment phases [8][19]. - Recommended stocks include Crystal International and Shenzhou International, with a focus on companies like Wah Lee and Yue Yuen [8][19].

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam's trade with Japan shows significant growth, with exports reaching $26.8 billion and imports at $24.7 billion, indicating a strong economic relationship between the two countries [1] Export Summary - Vietnam's exports to Japan reached $26.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [1] - Key export categories include: - Textiles: $4.6 billion, up 6.1% [1] - Transportation equipment and parts: $3.3 billion, up 8.6% [1] - Wood and wooden products: $2.2 billion, up 23.3% [1] - Mobile phones and accessories: $1.7 billion, up 17.7% [1] - Footwear: $1.6 billion, up 19% [1] - Agricultural, forestry, and fishery products also saw strong growth: - Coffee: $611 million, up 46.6% [1] - Cashews: $85.6 million, up 34.7% [1] - Pepper: $27 million, up 25.9% [1] Import Summary - Vietnam's imports from Japan totaled $24.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [1] - Major import categories include: - Computers, electronic products, and accessories: $8.347 billion, up 24.06% [1] - Machinery, equipment, and parts: $4.886 billion, up 21.69% [1] - These two categories account for approximately 54% of Vietnam's total imports from Japan, highlighting the close economic ties in the regional supply chain [1]

Core Insights - In 2025, the total import and export volume between Vietnam and Germany is expected to exceed $13.66 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.6% and accounting for approximately 20% of Vietnam's total trade with the European Union [1] Trade Structure - Vietnam's exports to Germany are projected to exceed $9.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 20%, making up around 18% of Vietnam's total exports to the EU [1] - Imports from Germany are estimated at approximately $4.1 billion, which constitutes about 25% of Vietnam's total imports from the EU [1] Agricultural and Seafood Exports - Exports of agricultural and seafood products from Vietnam to Germany are expected to surpass $1.9 billion, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 64% [1] - Coffee exports alone are projected to exceed $1.22 billion, with a remarkable growth of 103% in export value and a 48.5% increase in export volume [1] - Germany is currently the largest importer of Vietnamese coffee, accounting for 13.7% of Vietnam's total coffee exports [1] - Other agricultural exports to Germany are also on the rise, including seafood exports exceeding $224.55 million (up 11%), cashew exports over $215.62 million (up 42%), and chili exports surpassing $123.76 million (up 36%) [1] Processed and Industrial Goods Exports - Exports of processed and industrial goods from Vietnam to Germany are expected to exceed $6.97 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] - Notable categories include computer, electronic products, and accessories, with exports exceeding $1.38 billion (up 31%), machinery, equipment, and accessories exceeding $1.43 billion (up 8%), and textile exports surpassing $905 million (up 14%) [1]

Core Insights - The Moroccan government is implementing a "Five-Point Strategy" to promote exports and diversify trade, aiming to reduce the growing trade deficit [1][2]. Group 1: Product and Market Diversification - The strategy emphasizes product diversification by expanding the range of export goods and services, focusing on high-value-added products, processed goods, and advanced technology industrial products, while reducing reliance on traditional exports like phosphates, textiles, and automotive parts [1]. - Market diversification is also a key focus, as nearly 70% of Moroccan exports currently go to European countries, primarily France and Spain. The government aims to explore markets in Africa, Asia, and the Americas to build a more resilient export base [1]. Group 2: Support for Exporters and Innovation - The government plans to support exporters through training, financial assistance, compliance guidance with international standards, and organizing trade missions for 400 small and medium-sized enterprises lacking independent export resources [1]. - Enhancing innovation and competitiveness is another priority, with efforts to drive innovation in key sectors and improve productivity by adopting new technologies and elevating product quality to meet international standards [1]. Group 3: Logistics and Trade Facilitation - The strategy includes improving logistics and trade facilitation by enhancing connectivity at ports, airports, and transportation networks, simplifying export documentation, and supporting digital trade platforms to ensure faster and lower-cost access to global markets [2]. Group 4: Trade Deficit Projection - According to recent government data, Morocco's trade deficit is projected to reach approximately $29.4 billion by 2025 [3].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the tension in US-India relations due to President Trump's threats to impose high tariffs on Indian goods if India continues to import oil from Russia [1][3] - The bilateral trade between the US and India reached $129 billion in 2022, with India having a trade surplus of $45.7 billion, primarily in electronics, textiles, and jewelry [1] - The US has previously imposed tariffs of up to 50% on certain Indian goods, and the current situation highlights the deep-seated trade disagreements, particularly regarding India's high tariff policies [1][5] Group 2 - India's reliance on Russian oil, which is priced $20-30 per ton lower than international benchmarks, is crucial for its economy, especially in the context of rising global inflation [3] - The potential increase in US tariffs could lead to an estimated economic loss of $57.6 million for India's core export sectors, threatening millions of jobs [3] - The US strategy aims to pressure allies to reduce energy imports from Russia while using tariffs as leverage in trade negotiations, particularly in agriculture [5] Group 3 - The ongoing trade friction is indicative of broader instability in the global economic order, with the US frequently using tariffs as a diplomatic tool, complicating international trade relationships [5][8] - India's strategy involves balancing its core interests with flexible diplomatic approaches to maintain energy security and international standing [7][8] - The current trade competition transcends mere economic interests, evolving into a struggle for strategic trust and international order, prompting countries to seek diversified cooperation models [8]