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GTC泽汇:硬资产时代金银逻辑重构
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 10:45
Core Viewpoint - The current market for gold and silver is undergoing a fundamental re-evaluation, transitioning from a speculative-driven environment to one driven by structural demand, indicating a significant shift in the role of precious metals in asset allocation [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The shift in the gold market's core logic began in 2022 due to changes in the global monetary landscape, with emerging market central banks increasing their gold reserves to mitigate risks associated with a single reserve currency [3]. - This institutional buying, driven by macro policy rather than price fluctuations, has established a solid long-term bottom for gold prices, with room for further increases in global central bank gold reserves [3]. - GTC ZEHUI anticipates that this trend of institutional-led allocation will remain resilient over the coming years [3]. Group 2: Silver Market Insights - The silver market is facing a pronounced structural gap, particularly evident in the second half of 2025, due to strong industrial demand depleting surface inventories and creating a tight global supply chain [3]. - The current state of the silver market reflects a long-term structural issue caused by supply-demand mismatches, with high leasing rates indicating a persistent shortage of physical silver [3]. - GTC ZEHUI suggests that while silver may experience more volatility, its dual inflation logic in both industrial and investment sectors remains unchanged [3]. Group 3: Investment Outlook for 2026 - For 2026, GTC ZEHUI recommends a rationally optimistic approach, suggesting a moderate growth expectation with annual returns projected between 10% and 15%, despite the unlikelihood of replicating the explosive growth seen in 2025 [3][4]. - The allocation of 20% of portfolios to hard assets like gold and silver is becoming a new norm among institutions, indicating a structural re-evaluation of these assets [4]. - GTC ZEHUI views 2025 as a pivotal year for regaining confidence in gold and silver, with 2026 expected to be a year of deepening the benefits of this structural re-evaluation [4].