日前，联合国贸发会议发布《2025年最不发达国家报告》，探究服务业能否成为最不发达国家实现结构 转型的新路径，尽管服务业在最不发达国家经济中的比重日益增长，但目前尚未成为推动广泛发展和结 构转型的强大引擎。服务业增长并未有效转化为生产率的普遍提高和高质量就业。 服务业增长显著但转型乏力。报告指出，服务业已成为最不发达国家最大的经济部门，2023年，服务业 平均占此类国家国内生产总值（GDP）的48.9%，同时也是重要的就业吸纳者，提供了38.4%的就业， 但这一增长主要发生在诸如零售贸易等低生产率、非正规的传统服务领域。最不发达国家整体劳动生产 率增长缓慢，各类服务业行业中，只有金融和商业服务等少数知识密集型领域出现了生产率增长，而吸 纳了大部分劳动力的贸易服务等部门生产率几乎停滞。报告还注意到，在许多最不发达国家，城市低端 服务业吸收大量从农业部门转移出来的劳动力，导致其无法进入制造业，出现了"过早去工业化"的现 象。 服务业贸易格局脆弱性突出。报告指出，最不发达国家的服务出口高度集中于传统部门，旅游和运输2 项合计占其服务出口总额的近70%，使其极易受到外部冲击的影响。此外，最不发达国家正在错失数字 机遇 ...

Core Insights - The report by UNCTAD explores whether the service sector can become a new pathway for structural transformation in least developed countries (LDCs), highlighting that despite the growth of the service sector, it has not yet become a strong engine for broad development and structural transformation [1] Group 1: Service Sector Growth - The service sector has become the largest economic sector in LDCs, accounting for an average of 48.9% of GDP in 2023 and providing 38.4% of employment [1] - Growth in the service sector is primarily concentrated in low-productivity, informal traditional service areas such as retail trade, with slow overall labor productivity growth in LDCs [1] - Only a few knowledge-intensive sectors, like financial and business services, have seen productivity growth, while productivity in trade services, which employs a large portion of the workforce, has stagnated [1] Group 2: Vulnerabilities in Service Trade - The service export structure of LDCs is highly concentrated in traditional sectors, with tourism and transport accounting for nearly 70% of total service exports, making them vulnerable to external shocks [2] - LDCs are missing out on digital opportunities, with their participation in the dynamic global trade of digital delivery services being extremely low, at approximately 0.16%, the lowest recorded share [2] - Due to insufficient trade capacity, LDCs face significant deficits in service trade, with trade deficits in digital delivery services accounting for 41.1% of their total trade deficit in 2024 [2] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - The relationship between the service sector and industrialization is complementary rather than substitutive, suggesting that national strategies should not choose between "services or industry" but rather promote both [3] - The report recommends that LDCs and their development partners adopt a comprehensive transformation approach, integrating service sector development into broader structural transformation agendas [3] - Key strategies include investing in infrastructure and human capital, upgrading traditional service sectors, and enhancing regional and international cooperation to expand service trade [3] - The report emphasizes that the service sector alone is not a "magic bullet" for development challenges; it must be deeply integrated with the national economy and supported by comprehensive national strategies and favorable global conditions to effectively drive structural transformation [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that while the service sector is growing in least developed countries (LDCs), it has not yet become a strong engine for broad development and structural transformation [1] - In 2023, the service sector accounted for an average of 48.9% of GDP in LDCs and provided 38.4% of employment, but this growth is primarily in low-productivity, informal traditional service areas like retail [1] - Labor productivity growth in LDCs is slow, with only a few knowledge-intensive sectors like financial and business services showing productivity increases, while trade services, which employ most workers, have stagnated [1] Group 2 - The report highlights the vulnerability of service trade patterns in LDCs, with tourism and transport accounting for nearly 70% of service exports, making them susceptible to external shocks [2] - LDCs are missing out on digital opportunities, with their participation in the dynamic global digital delivery services sector at only about 0.16%, the lowest recorded share [2] - In 2024, LDCs' trade deficit in digital delivery services accounted for 41.1% of their total trade deficit, indicating significant trade capacity limitations [2] Group 3 - The report suggests a comprehensive transformation path, emphasizing that the relationship between services and industrialization is complementary rather than substitutive [3] - It recommends that LDCs and their development partners adopt integrated development strategies that include service sector development within broader structural transformation agendas [3] - Key recommendations include investing in infrastructure and human capital, upgrading traditional service sectors, and deepening regional and international cooperation to enhance service trade [3]