智通财经APP获悉，有着"恐怖数据"称号的美国零售销售额扩张速度意外放缓，凸显出在劳动力市场趋于疲软以及关税带来的暂时通胀冲之下，消费者支 出步伐放缓。虽然消费者支出增长幅度放缓，但是仍然韧性十足的正向增长零售销售额也进一步强化了近期一度主导市场交易逻辑的"金发姑娘式的软着 陆"的这一温和增长宏观环境叙事逻辑。 在摩根士丹利经济学家团队们看来，在特朗普政府2025年通过的OBBBA减税法案(即所谓的"大而美"法案)将从2026年开始强劲推动经济增长效应，叠加特 朗普关税政策带来的物价上扬最终被证实为暂时性的通胀扰动直至短期通胀逐渐消散，以及微软、谷歌等科技巨头们围绕AI算力基础设施为核心的AI数据 中心建设进程如火如荼，将共同带动美国经济在2026年呈现出"金发姑娘式的软着陆"的这一温和增长宏观环境。 所谓"金发姑娘"(Goldilocks)式美国宏观经济环境，即指代美国经济不冷不热、刚刚好，维持GDP与消费者支出、非农劳动力市场适度"温和增长"和长期稳 定的"温和通胀趋势"，与此同时基准利率位于下行轨迹。整体而言，大摩预计美国经济将在2026年逐步走出高度不确定状态，回到"温和增长"的这一积极 轨道。 此外 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，苏州五月时光商贸有限公司成立，法定代表人为潘珊，注册资本30万人民币， 经营范围为一般项目：工艺美术品及礼仪用品销售（象牙及其制品除外）；刀剑工艺品销售；互联网销 售（除销售需要许可的商品）；日用品销售；工艺美术品及收藏品零售（象牙及其制品除外）；日用陶 瓷制品销售；玻璃纤维增强塑料制品销售；针纺织品销售；箱包销售；专业设计服务；玩具销售；木制 玩具销售；橡胶制品销售；电子产品销售；电子元器件零售；电子专用设备销售；塑料制品销售；日用 百货销售；金银制品销售；音响设备销售；家用电器销售；乐器零售；照相机及器材销售；五金产品零 售；礼品花卉销售；货物进出口；技术进出口；文具用品零售；办公用品销售；乐器零配件销售；金属 包装容器及材料销售；美发饰品销售；照明器具销售（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主 开展经营活动）。 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，密迩（上海）服装科技有限公司成立，法定代表人为顾丹锋，注册资本5万人 民币，经营范围为一般项目：技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广；鞋帽 零售；鞋制造；鞋帽批发；日用百货销售；日用品销售；工艺美术品及收藏品零售（象牙及其制品除 外）；珠宝首饰制造；珠宝首饰零售；美发饰品销售；美发饰品生产；网络技术服务；咨询策划服务； 广告设计、代理；广告发布；数字广告发布；专业设计服务；平面设计；服装服饰批发；服装服饰零 售；服饰制造；服饰研发；针纺织品销售；针纺织品及原料销售；皮革制品销售；皮革制品制造；集贸 市场管理服务；互联网销售（除销售需要许可的商品）；货物进出口；技术进出口。（除依法须经批准 的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）许可项目：互联网信息服务。（依法须经批准的项目， 经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）。 ...

（原标题：2025年上半年波黑外国直接投资减少约1亿马克） 波黑媒体BiznisInfo11月12日报道。波黑央行数据显示，今年上半年流入波黑的外国直接投资约为 7.8亿马克，较去年同期的8.91亿马克减少了1.11亿马克。 2025年上半年，对波黑投资最多的国家是克罗地亚，投资额达2.03亿马克。紧随其后的是德国 （1.74亿马克）和塞尔维亚（1.08亿马克）。从投资领域看，外商投资主要集中在金融服务行业（5.038 亿马克），其次是零售贸易（2.198亿马克）和批发贸易（2.05亿马克）行业。 东萨拉热窝经济学院教授、经济学家姆利纳雷维奇指出，外国投资下降的趋势并非波黑独有，西巴 尔干地区其他国家也面临同样情况。投资减少的原因在于欧盟主要经济体（它们是西巴尔干地区的主要 投资国）的经济停滞或经济活动下滑；另一个原因是资本正越来越多地转向欧洲以外、生产成本更具竞 争力的替代目的地。外国投资下降对波黑经济增长的影响相对较小，因为与塞尔维亚等国相比，波黑此 前吸引的外国直接投资规模本就有限。 姆利纳雷维奇认为，波黑未来需要将外资政策与经济结构转型相协调。有必要激励那些能带来更高 附加值、创造优质就业岗位并提升经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics driven by liquidity and the potential limitations of this bull market, drawing parallels with Japan's past market behavior during the 1990s [2][14][58]. Market Performance - Since the policy shift on "September 24," the domestic market has rebounded significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index rising by 47% and 50% from their lows, respectively [2]. - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index stands at a dynamic PE of 11.6, which is above the historical average, indicating that certain high-growth sectors may no longer be considered cheap [2][6]. Valuation Comparisons - While the Hang Seng Index appears cheaper than the S&P 500's dynamic valuation of 22.3, this comparison lacks context regarding profitability and liquidity conditions [6][8]. - The article highlights that the median PE of leading Chinese tech companies is 17.8, which is higher than their median net profit margin of 9.6%, suggesting potential overvaluation in some sectors [6][8]. Economic Indicators - Post-August, domestic demand indicators have weakened, and recent financial credit data supports the view that the credit cycle may be turning downward in the fourth quarter [9][11]. - The article notes that risk premiums in traditional sectors like finance and real estate have dropped below historical averages, while new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are stabilizing around historical means [9][11]. Historical Context: Japan's Bull Markets - The article analyzes Japan's three bull markets in the 1990s, which were characterized by significant government stimulus and external economic trends, yet ultimately faced limitations due to structural issues and market sentiment [14][58]. - Each of Japan's bull markets was initiated by substantial fiscal stimulus, with the first round starting in 1992, leading to a 54% rebound over 12.8 months [19][33]. Investor Behavior - During Japan's first bull market, individual investors' participation surged, while foreign investors' share declined, indicating a shift in market sentiment [28][30]. - The second bull market saw a similar pattern, with individual investor enthusiasm waning as foreign investor participation increased [40][42]. Conclusion and Implications - The article concludes that while liquidity can drive market rallies, without substantial improvements in the underlying economy, these rallies may face ceilings [58]. - It suggests that to break through current market limitations, structural policy changes focusing on technology and income expectations are necessary, rather than relying solely on traditional fiscal measures [67].

Core Insights - Zhongshan Huicheng Lighting Technology Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 500,000 RMB, indicating a new player in the lighting technology sector [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is Chen Xianfeng, which may suggest a centralized leadership structure [1] - The company’s business scope includes a wide range of activities such as technology services, sales of lighting fixtures, semiconductor lighting components, and various retail products [1] Business Activities - The company is involved in technology services including development, consulting, and transfer, which may enhance its competitive edge in the lighting industry [1] - Retail activities encompass a diverse array of products, from daily necessities to electronic products, indicating a broad market approach [1] - The inclusion of import and export activities suggests potential for international trade and market expansion [1]

Core Insights - A new company, Mangshi Kunyuan Yuhong Tea Co., Ltd., has been established with a registered capital of 100,000 RMB [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is He Yumei [1] - The company’s business scope includes tea planting, sales of agricultural products, tea utensils, daily ceramics, arts and crafts, food sales (only pre-packaged food), packaging services, cultural and artistic exchange activities, conference and exhibition services, daily necessities sales, hardware retail, home appliance sales, textile products and raw materials sales, import and export of goods, technology import and export, artistic creation, and various technical services [1]

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) is witnessing significant procurement activities, with the Shanghai trading group actively engaging in large-scale purchases [1] - Major retail procurement alliance members, including Bailian Group and Bright Food Group, have signed contracts with suppliers from various regions, covering multiple sectors such as food, home goods, beauty, and medical devices [1] - China Baowu Steel Group has also made substantial procurement agreements with 13 global suppliers, focusing on advanced low-carbon metallurgical equipment and high-quality raw materials [1][2] Group 1 - The Shanghai trading group has achieved procurement intentions for 54 projects, with 25 projects signed on-site during the expo [1] - The procurement products represent advanced manufacturing levels in the global low-carbon metallurgy sector, aimed at upgrading processes and optimizing product structures for Baowu's steel production [2] - The procurement includes a range of resources such as iron ore, chromium ore, manganese, nickel, coal, and various metal materials [1][2] Group 2 - Multiple districts in Shanghai are also signing key industrial and benchmark projects during the expo [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ganzhou Mufu Trading Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 100,000 RMB, indicating a new player in the trading sector focusing on a wide range of consumer goods and services [1] Company Summary - The legal representative of the company is Cai Pengpeng [1] - The registered capital of the company is 100,000 RMB [1] - The company operates in various sectors including internet sales, daily necessities, fishing gear, retail of shoes and hats, cosmetics, hardware products, textiles, outdoor products, watches, and more [1] Business Scope - The business scope includes general projects such as internet sales (excluding licensed goods), retail of daily necessities, fishing gear sales, and cosmetics retail [1] - The company also engages in wholesale of kitchenware and sanitary ware, sales of office supplies, household appliances, and personal hygiene products [1] - Additional areas of operation include sales of sports equipment, communication devices, electronic products, and food (only pre-packaged food) [1]

Core Viewpoint - A new individual business named "Chongyi Water Mist Trading" has been established in Changshu City, focusing on various retail and sales activities related to gardening products, pet supplies, and other general merchandise [1] Company Summary - The business is registered with a capital of 30,000 RMB [1] - The legal representative of the business is Ma Xiye [1] - The business activities include sales of gardening products, pet food and supplies, plastic products, mechanical equipment, pumps and vacuum equipment, spray guns and similar devices, hardware products, daily necessities, home goods, and internet sales [1]