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格林大华期货早盘提示:铁矿-20251030
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 07:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials sector is "Oscillating Bullish" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to be oscillating bullish in the short - term, but the upside potential should be viewed with caution due to the expected decline in hot metal production later [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Market Review - Iron ore prices closed higher on Wednesday and continued to rise in the night session [3] Important Information - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment plans to use carbon market measures to promote green and low - carbon emissions reduction in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries [3] - As of October 29, 27 provinces had announced their GDP data for the first three quarters of 2025. Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three, with GDP of 10,517.698 billion yuan, 10,281.1 billion yuan, and 7,711.5 billion yuan respectively. 23 provinces had GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan, and Guangdong and Jiangsu exceeded 10 trillion yuan [3] - The Ministry of Transport completed 2.6 trillion yuan in transportation fixed - asset investment in the first three quarters [3] - President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [3] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and will end the balance - sheet reduction starting from December 1 [3] Market Logic - The macro sentiment has improved, and there are significant changes on the supply side. The global iron ore shipments this period reached 3,388.4 tons, the highest level in the same period in recent years, which is expected to result in a strong arrival volume later. The arrival of iron ore decreased this period, and the supply of imported ore decreased marginally in the short - term [3] - From October 20 - 26, the total iron ore inventory at seven ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,158.3 tons, a decrease of 14.7 tons compared to the previous period, continuing the destocking trend, and the inventory level has dropped to the lowest level since the second half of the year [3] - The daily hot metal output in the previous period was 239.9 tons, a weekly decrease of 1.05 tons, still at a relatively high level. Steel mills in some areas of Hebei are under production restrictions, and the hot metal output is expected to decline, likely falling below 230 tons later [3] Trading Strategy - It is expected to be oscillating bullish in the short - term. The pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 833, and the support level is 750. Short - term operations are recommended with stop - losses set [3]