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建信期货-每日观点2025/11/24
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 13:34
本报告谨提供给建信期货有限责任公司(以下简称本公司)的特定客户及其他专业人士。本公司不因接 收人收到本报告而视其为客户。 本报告的信息均来源于公开资料,本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所包含 的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。本公司力求报告内容的客观、公正,但报告中的观点、结论和建议仅 供参考,报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价,投资者应当充分考虑自身特定状况,并完 整理解和使用本报告内容,不应视本报告为做出投资决策的唯一因素。对依据或者使用本报告所造成的 一切后果,本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。 免责申明 (来源:建信期货研究服务) 建信期货研究服务 国债:市场环境改善,宽松预期再起,逢调做多 集运:春节前出货潮预期开始发酵或带动淡季04合约高估,关注02-04正套 股指:震荡整理阶段,或以时间换空间 钢材:冲高回落,有低位反弹诉求 焦炭:探低回升,走低空间不大,关注下游补库节奏 焦煤:探低回升,等待企稳,关注下游补库节奏 铁矿:基本面整体仍有压力,在前期宽幅震荡区间内波动运行 原油:俄乌局势持续缓和,空头思路操作 沥青:基差回归,震荡运行 工业硅:现货价格重新松动,窄幅运行 ...
黑色金属日报-20251124
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 12:02
| | | 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 | SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2025年11月24日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面有所反弹。螺纹表需有所好转,产量同步回升,库存继续下降。热卷需求回暖,产量小幅回升,库存开始下降。下游 承接能力不足,钢厂整体延续亏损状态,后期高炉继续减产可能性较大,供应压力逐步缓解,关注唐山等地环保限产持续性, 从下游行业看 ...
头条:钢材领涨焦煤独跌 反弹条件需继续巩固
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 11:34
来源:兰格钢铁网 行情展望 从目前市场运行状况来看,钢市有所反弹,较上周运行均值有所回升,但持续上涨的驱动逻辑尚未形 成,上涨幅度有待进一步巩固。另一方面,多地建材缺规格已形成区域性价格支撑的有力条件。当前产 量和库存未积累重大矛盾,市场不存在重大风险,但利润空间有限,后市仍不明朗,商家操作谨慎,低 吸高抛成为阶段性主要策略。 从盘面来看,黑色系涨跌互现,焦煤保持弱势,主力焦煤跌1.48%,焦炭盘中略微回涨,最终收涨 0.21%,铁矿涨3.5点,螺纹和热卷涨幅高于原料,分别涨29点和22点。从螺纹主力01合约来看,最终收 3089,持仓143万手,减仓超8万手,主力移仓换月已开始。前20席位持仓中,多头持仓减少4.7万手, 空头持仓减少7.7万手。日线明显反弹,但尾盘回落收于3100关口之内,较高点3117回落28点。下一步 关注短线3070-3080附近支撑。从日线结构来看,明日重心有所上升,回到3050之下概率不大,窄幅回 撤后仍有反弹机会。日内参考运行区间:3050-3132。 今日钢市总体小幅上涨,多地螺纹、热卷报价上涨10-20元,少数带钢市场涨幅达到30元,唐山迁安钢 坯资源也同步上涨30元。从成 ...
金信期货日刊:玻璃看多策略要点-20251124
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 01:29
金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/11/24 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD 玻璃2605合约当前价格接近1000元/吨成本线,下行空间受限,但抄底需严守风控、静待信号。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品,为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益,请勿复制、传播、销售,否则将承担法律责任!包图网将对作品进行维权,按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿! ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 基本面看,传统地产需求疲软拖累产销,但光伏玻璃、BIPV等新赛道需求同比增长18%,构成长期支撑; 供应端沙河部分产线冷修,虽有复产预期,但落后产能出清持续推进。 技术面需关注1000-1005元支撑区间,仅当价格站稳该区间且出现成交量放大、连续减仓等信号时,可轻 仓试多。 风险提示不可忽视:库存仍处高位,冬季需求淡季或加剧累库压力,且持仓高企存在流动性风险。抄底核 心逻辑是成本支撑与产业转型红利,需摒弃盲目抄底思维,待供需拐点明确后再逐步加仓。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源:公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考,市场有风险,入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD ...
阿尔及利亚三部门召开高层协调会加速推进廷杜夫铁矿开发及西部矿业线铁路投运
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-11-21 15:21
与会者强调,上述两项目是国家级战略项目,将对阿经济发展和社会进步产生深远影响。 (原标题:阿尔及利亚三部门召开高层协调会加速推进廷杜夫铁矿开发及西部矿业线铁路投运) 会议还研究了在廷杜夫、贝沙尔、纳阿马建立新选矿与加工厂的计划,以形成从采矿、加工、转化到运输的完整产业链,首批铁矿料将在 2026年起运往奥兰TOSYALI钢铁集团。 《曙光报》11月20日消息,阿三部门近日在油气与矿业部召开协调会,重点跟进总统特本关于2026年一季度启动廷杜夫铁矿本地化开采及西 部矿业铁路2026年1月投运的指示。会议由油气与矿业国务部长阿尔卡布与公共工程部长贾拉维共同主持,多部门负责人及相关企业高管参会。 会议围绕铁矿开采与选矿的技术流程、配套基础设施推进情况进行协调,特别是全长950公里的西部矿业线铁路,被视为铁矿项目价值链落地 的核心枢纽。与会方讨论了确保铁路在明年1月按期投入使用及铁矿本地化开发如期启动的具体措施。该项目被视为阿独立以来的重要经济突破, 将为阿钢铁产业提供稳定原料,掌握工业主权,推动经济多元化。 ...
黑色金属日报-20251121
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 11:09
【钢材】 今日盘面震荡为主。本周螺纹表需有所好转,产量同步回升,库存继续下降。热卷需求回暖,产量小幅回升,库存开始下降。 下游承接能力不足,钢厂整体延续亏损状态,后期高炉继续减产可能性较大,供应压力逐步缓解,关注唐山等地环保限产持续 性。从下游行业看,地产投资降幅继续扩大,基建、制造业投资增速持续回落,内需整体依然偏弱,钢材出口高位有所回落。 需求预期仍偏悲观,成本端煤焦依然疲弱,盘面整体依然承压,震荡区间下移仍有一定支撑,短期关注宏观情绪变化。 【铁矿】 铁矿今日盘面震荡。供应端,全球发运偏强,四季度发运量预计维持高位,国内港口库存本周阶段下滑,整体仍然保持累库趋 势,短期存在一定结构性犹动。需求端,钢材表需环比有所反弹,但目前进入淡季并且钢厂盈利情况较差,铁水本周小幅减 产,仍然处于李节性减产趋势中,减产速度有所放缓,短期关注宏观层面是否会有利好政策出台。铁矿石基本面边际转宽松, 我们预计盘面走势震荡为主。 【焦炭】 日内价格下行。焦化利润一般,日产持续微降。焦炭库存微增,目前下游少量按需采购,库存变动不大,贸易商采购意愿一 般。整体来看,碳元素供应充裕,下游铁水仍在高位区间,不过库存小幅下降。炼焦煤总库 ...
综合晨报-20251121
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 02:18
Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251121
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 01:37
期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 | 股指期货:A 股再受考验 3 | | --- | | 国债期货:消息扰动下,债市表现分化 4 | 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 21 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 蛋白粕:利多带动有限 粕类继续承压 5 | | --- | | 白糖:国际糖价继续震荡 国内糖价震荡略涨 5 | | 油脂板块:震荡行情延续 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉:现货稳定,盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | 生猪:出栏压力增加 现货略有回落 8 | | 花生:花生现货稳定,花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋:需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 9 | | 苹果:需求表现一般 果价稳定为主 10 | | 棉花-棉纱:基本面矛盾不大 棉价震荡为主 11 | | 钢材:钢价区间震荡,铁水仍有压减空间 13 | | --- | | 双焦:现货价格高位回调,盘面偏弱运行 13 | | 铁矿:偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金:供需双弱,成本支撑区间震荡 15 | | 贵金属:美国非农信号不一 金银延续震荡 16 | | --- | | 铜:短期关注下方支撑 17 | | 氧化铝:实质性减产仍未兑现 关注仓单 ...
国内商品期货夜盘开盘涨跌不一,沪金跌0.17%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-11-20 13:43
每经AI快讯,11月20日,国内商品期货夜盘开盘涨跌不一,沪金跌0.17%,沪银跌0.53%,沪锌涨 0.27%,铁矿涨0.06%,焦煤跌0.62%,玻璃跌0.3%,原油涨0.9%。 每日经济新闻 (责任编辑:刘畅 ) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱: news_center@staff.hexun.com ...
黑色金属日报-20251120
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:13
| | | | 11/11/11 | SDIC FUTURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月20日 | | 螺纹 | 女女女 | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★★★ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面继续回落。本周螺纹表需有所好转,产量同步回升,库存继续下降。热卷需求回暖,产量小幅回升,库存开始下降。 下游承接能力不足,钢厂整体延续亏损状态,后期高炉继续减产可能性较大,供应压力逐步缓解,关注唐山等地环保限产持续 性。从下游行业看,地产投资降幅继续扩大,基建、制 ...