Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The steel and ore market is expected to continue its oscillating trend. The support and pressure levels for rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore are given, and specific trading strategies are proposed [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore closed down. During the night session, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed down, while iron ore closed up [1]. Important Information - Two Chinese Hong Kong-flagged container ships successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz on March 31 [1]. - In March 2026, the floating value of the coking coal long-term agreement's steel linkage decreased by 24 yuan/ton compared to February [1]. - From March 23 - 29, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 3.3472 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 77.1% and a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [1]. - In March, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all returned to the expansion range, rising by 1.4, 0.6, and 1.0 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [1]. - Trump said the US would end the war with Iran in "two to three weeks" and might reach an agreement before that. Iran's President said Iran was willing to end the war on the premise of having its demands met [1]. - On March 31, Zhongtian Iron and Steel announced its prices for the first ten days of April, with rebar and wire rod prices remaining unchanged. The price of rebar in East China is 3,400 yuan/ton, and the price of wire rod is 3,700 yuan/ton [1]. - The central bank's monetary policy committee held its first-quarter regular meeting, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and stock policies and strengthen monetary policy regulation [1]. Market Logic - On March 31, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3,240 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of Shanghai Ansteel/Bensteel hot-rolled coils was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [1]. - On March 31, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port increased by 1 yuan. For example, 60.8% PB fines were 783 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [1]. - On March 31, the spot market for port coke remained stable. The total inventory at the two ports increased compared to the previous working day [1]. - From March 23 - 29, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 26.267 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.436 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.263 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.547 million tons [1]. - From March 23 - 29, the global iron ore shipping volume was 24.724 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.719 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 18.751 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.843 million tons [1]. - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 176.6683 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.4735 million tons; the total inventory at 45 ports was 170.0031 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9809 million tons [2]. - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 89.7856 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.555 million tons [2]. - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a month-on-month increase of 1.25 percentage points; the profit rate of steel mills was 43.29%, a month-on-month increase of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3109 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0294 million tons [2]. - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 58.87%, a month-on-month increase of 2.3 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 3.87 percentage points. The average operating rate was 68.82%, a month-on-month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 4.51 percentage points [2]. Trading Strategy - It is expected that the steel and ore market will continue to oscillate. The support and pressure levels for rebar are 3,000 and 3,200 respectively; for hot-rolled coils, they are 3,180 and 3,350; for iron ore, they are 750 and 840 [2]. - For unilateral trading, short-term operations are recommended. For arbitrage, the strategy of going long on the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread can be cautiously held. Conservative investors can consider taking profits or reducing positions. The rebar - iron ore ratio is 3.86. The strategy of going long on rebar and short on iron ore is recommended to enter the market before the holiday and exit after the holiday [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall. Geopolitical conflicts mainly cause short - term emotional premiums on oil prices, and the risk premium usually fades within a few weeks to 2 - 3 months. If the current conflict subsides quickly, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [3][4]. - When crude oil prices fall, the crude oil chemical sector and futures will show a downward trend, with structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties will decline in sync with crude oil, while coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties have stronger resistance to decline, and downstream processing links will see improved profitability [5][6]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that there will be further adjustments in the early trading session tomorrow, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting at high and buying at low for the time being. Gold is expected to continue with a slightly bullish and volatile trend. Iron ore is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal is yet to come. Glass should be treated as wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken. Methanol is in a high - level oscillation. Pulp futures are in an interval oscillation [7][11][12][16][18][20]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog I. After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall - Geopolitical conflicts on oil prices are mostly short - term emotional premiums rather than long - term trends. After most Middle - East geopolitical events, the crude oil risk premium will quickly be reversed within a few weeks to 2 - 3 months and return to the pricing based on supply - demand fundamentals [4]. - If the current conflict subsides quickly and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will fade. Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [4]. II. The trends of the crude oil chemical sector and futures when crude oil prices fall - The crude oil chemical futures as a whole will follow the decline of crude oil but show structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE will see weakened cost support and their prices will fall in sync with crude oil. The larger the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5]. - Coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties such as coal - based olefins and methanol have relatively independent costs, stronger resistance to decline, and a smaller decline compared with pure oil - chemical varieties. Downstream processing links such as plastic and rubber products will see relieved cost pressure, improved marginal profitability, and smoother price transmission [6]. III. Key influencing factors and rhythm - The speed of premium fading: The faster the conflict subsides, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, and the main decline is usually completed within 1 - 4 weeks [6]. - Inventory and positions: The concentrated closing of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline [6]. - Macroeconomics and supply - demand: If the global crude oil inventory rises, OPEC+ increases production, or strategic reserves are released, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices. If the demand side remains stable, the decline will be more moderate [6]. Technical Analysis - Stock index futures: It is expected that there will be further adjustments in the early trading session tomorrow, and it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting at high and buying at low for the time being. The Shanghai Composite Index is still within the 15 - minute oscillation range [7][8]. - Gold: Gold has stabilized in the daily - level oscillation. After a higher opening, it showed an oscillating trend throughout the day. It should be treated with a slightly bullish and volatile mindset in the future [11]. - Iron ore: Australia and Brazil's shipments maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long - term, it is in the period of mine production capacity release, and the expectation of loose supply still exists. The resumption of production of steel mills after the festival may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Attention should be paid to the influence of policy and sentiment. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal is yet to come [12][13]. - Glass: The daily melting volume has declined slightly, and the inventory has been slightly reduced. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be treated as wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken [16][17]. - Methanol: Iran is China's largest source of methanol imports, accounting for over 70%. The obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the expected maintenance of Iranian facilities have led to a sharp increase in the expectation of import supply contraction, which is the core driver of this round of price increase. However, if the price remains high for a long time, terminal demand will be suppressed, forming a negative feedback. It should be treated as high - level oscillation [18]. - Pulp: The trading sentiment in the spot market is average. Domestic pulp enterprises' production is within the normal range, and the pulp output will not change much. The inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate, and the pressure remains. The previously shut - down facilities of downstream paper mills are gradually resuming production, and the overall pulp consumption continues to rise. The futures market has shown an interval oscillation recently [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the risks and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors in the second quarter of 2026, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals, black commodities, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It points out that each sector faces different challenges and uncertainties, such as geopolitical risks, inflation expectations, high inventory, and weak demand. The report also provides corresponding investment strategies and risk management suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Precious Metals: Geopolitical Inflation Expectations Suppress Non-interest-bearing Assets - The Fed faces a dilemma between a weak employment market and inflation in 2Q, and any attempt to front-run the Fed's rate cuts will face high policy risk [4][5]. - The high-frequency switching of the Fed's monetary policy path has led to sharp fluctuations in the precious metals market, and the market's pricing of rate cuts has converged significantly [7]. - The geopolitical conflict has changed the transmission path of precious metals, and inflation expectations have led to a shift of funds from precious metals to high-yield assets, suppressing precious metal valuations [18]. - The repeated swings between negotiation and military confrontation between the US and Iran have made the driving effect of geopolitical events on precious metals turn into high-frequency and disordered two-way fluctuations [24]. Non-ferrous Metals: Macro Valuation Decline and Micro High Inventory - The overseas macro environment shows signs of stagflation, and interest rates and the US dollar put pressure on the valuation of non-ferrous metals [26][27]. - The high inventory situation in the non-ferrous metals market makes the market prone to narrow and violent fluctuations, and the supply side is vulnerable to non-economic factors [31][33][34]. Black Commodities: Negative Feedback under High Inventory and Weak Demand - The fundamentals of black commodities in 2Q have negative feedback risks, and the supply pressure of raw materials and the high inventory situation may lead to a negative feedback loop [36][39]. - The iron ore and coking coal markets face different risks, and the high valuation of ferroalloys lacks solid support [39]. Energy Chemicals: Geopolitical Premium - The energy chemicals market is highly sensitive to geopolitical events, and the blind judgment of the geopolitical situation may lead to a sharp decline in prices [48]. - The logistics reconstruction and basis risk in the energy chemicals market require traders to have strong time window control ability [51]. Agricultural Products: Biodiesel Policy and El Niño - The cost pricing logic of agricultural products has changed, and the easing of the Middle East situation may lead to a collapse of cost support [59]. - The supply growth of agricultural products is expected to be realized in 2Q, but the demand is weak, and the prices of some products may face downward pressure [64]. - The climate pattern switch and policy tail risks may have a significant impact on the agricultural products market [67]. Summary and Response - Precious metals: Adopt risk control as the top priority, build long-term strategic positions, and use options for risk management [69]. - Non-ferrous metals: Construct bullish call spread combinations and seagull option strategies for different types of enterprises [69]. - Black commodities: Adopt defensive and short-selling strategies, use arbitrage strategies and options to manage risks, and closely monitor marginal changes [69]. - Energy chemicals: Do not recommend unilateral trading, and construct seagull option strategy systems for upstream and midstream enterprises [69]. - Agricultural products: Adopt a band trading strategy, use arbitrage strategies to hedge risks, and strictly control positions [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shock" rating for the steel and ore sector in the black building materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel and ore market is expected to continue its volatile trend. The support and pressure levels for different varieties are as follows: the support level for rebar is 3000, and the pressure level is 3200; the support level for hot-rolled coil is 3180, and the pressure level is 3350; the support level for iron ore is 750, and the pressure level is 840. For trading strategies, short-term operations are recommended for single positions. For arbitrage, the strategy of going long on the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread can be cautiously held, and conservative investors can consider taking profits or reducing positions. The strategy of going long on the rebar - iron ore ratio (going long on rebar and short on iron ore) is recommended to enter the market before the holiday, hold it in the short term, and exit at an appropriate time after the holiday [1][2] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Monday, rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore closed higher, and they also closed higher during the night session [1] Important Information - From January to February, transportation fixed asset investment reached 355.8 billion yuan, with highway and waterway investments of 244.9 billion yuan and 28 billion yuan respectively [1] - The east - west oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia is operating at a full - capacity of 7 million barrels per day [1] - On March 30, Rio Tinto announced that iron ore port operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia had fully resumed, and its 2026 Pilbara iron ore shipping guidance remained at 323 - 338 million tons [1] - The US is in serious consultations with Iran to end military operations in Iran. Trump threatened to "completely destroy all power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island in Iran" if an agreement cannot be reached in the short term. Iranian officials said they would cut off power to the entire region if power generation facilities were attacked [1] - The National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament passed a bill to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, including financial arrangements and a charging system in Iranian rials, and banning US and Israeli ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz [1] Market Logic - On the 30th, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3220 yuan, unchanged; the price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi Steel hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan, up 10 yuan [1] - On the 30th, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port increased by 4 yuan. For example, 60.8% PB powder was 786 yuan (up 4 yuan), Super Special powder was 672 yuan (up 4 yuan), 61.6% PB lump was 894 yuan (up 4 yuan), Carajás fines was 949 yuan (up 4 yuan), and SPGF mixed powder was 756 yuan (up 4 yuan) [1] - On the 30th, the spot market for coke at ports remained stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic spot market was average. The volume of trade collection at the two ports decreased slightly compared with the previous working day, and the total inventory at the two ports continued to increase compared with the previous working day. The inventory at Rizhao Port was 470,000 tons (unchanged), and at Qingdao Port it was 900,000 tons (up 70,000 tons), with a total inventory of 1.37 million tons, up 150,000 tons from last week [1] - From March 23rd to March 29th, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 26.267 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.436 million tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.263 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.547 million tons [1] - From March 23rd to March 29th, the total global iron ore shipping volume was 24.724 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.719 million tons. The total shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 18.751 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.843 million tons [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 176.6683 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4735 million tons; the total inventory at 45 ports was 170.0031 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9809 million tons [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at national steel mills was 89.7856 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.555 million tons [1] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points; the profit rate of steel mills was 43.29%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3109 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0294 million tons [1][2] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 58.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.87 percentage points. The average operating rate was 68.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.93 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51 percentage points [2] Trading Strategy - The steel and ore market is expected to continue its volatile trend. For single positions, short - term operations are recommended. For arbitrage, the strategy of going long on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread can be cautiously held. Given that the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil have been weaker than rebar recently, conservative investors can consider taking profits or reducing positions. The current rebar - iron ore ratio is 3.86. The strategy of going long on the rebar - iron ore ratio (going long on rebar and short on iron ore) is recommended to enter the market before the holiday, hold it in the short term, and exit at an appropriate time after the holiday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Iran - US conflict ends, crude oil prices are likely to fall. Geopolitical conflicts mainly cause short - term emotional premiums on oil prices, and after most Middle - East geopolitical events, the risk premium of crude oil will be quickly reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, returning to fundamental supply - demand pricing [3][4]. - If the current conflict subsides quickly and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [4]. - Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [4]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Impact of the End of the Iran - US Conflict on Crude Oil Prices - Geopolitical conflicts mainly bring short - term emotional premiums to oil prices, not long - term trends. After most Middle - East geopolitical events, the risk premium of crude oil will be quickly reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, returning to fundamental supply - demand pricing [4]. - If the conflict subsides quickly and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from the current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will fade [4]. - Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [4]. II. Trends of Crude Oil Chemical Sector and Futures when Crude Oil Prices Fall - Crude oil chemical futures generally follow the decline of crude oil but show structural differentiation [5]. - Direct oil - chemical products (such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE): The cost support weakens, and prices fall synchronously with crude oil. The greater the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5]. - Coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route products (such as coal - to - olefins, methanol): The cost is relatively independent, with stronger resistance to decline, and the decline range is smaller than that of pure oil - chemical products [6]. - Downstream processing sectors (such as plastic and rubber products): The cost pressure eases, the profit margin improves, and price transmission becomes smoother [6]. III. Key Influencing Factors and Rhythms - The speed of premium fading: The faster the conflict subsides, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, and the main decline is usually completed within 1 - 4 weeks [6]. - Inventory and positions: The concentrated closing of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline [6]. - Macroeconomics and supply - demand: If the global crude oil inventory rises, OPEC+ increases production or releases strategic reserves, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices; if the demand side remains stable, the decline range will be more moderate [6]. IV. Technical Analysis of Different Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After sufficient adjustment, it is expected to continue to fill the gap upwards tomorrow. It is recommended to go long on dips [8][9]. - **Gold**: The daily - level decline of gold is gradually stopping. After opening lower, it fluctuated higher throughout the day. It should be treated with a bullish and oscillating mindset in the future [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipments from Australia and Brazil maintain a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long - term, it is in the mine production capacity release cycle, and the expectation of loose supply still exists. The resumption of production of steel mills after the festival may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of policy and sentiment. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, and the right - side signal still needs to wait [13][14]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has declined slightly, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be regarded as a wide - range oscillation before the upper pressure is broken [17][18]. - **Methanol**: Iran is China's largest source of methanol imports, accounting for more than 70%. The obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the expected maintenance of Iranian facilities, has sharply increased the expectation of import supply contraction, which has become the core driving force for this round of price increase. However, if the price remains high for a long time, terminal demand will be suppressed, forming a negative feedback. It should be treated as a high - level oscillation [19]. - **Pulp**: The trading sentiment in the spot market is average. Domestic pulp mills' production is within the normal range, and the pulp output will change little. The inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate, and the pressure continues. The previously shut - down facilities of downstream paper mills are gradually resuming production, and the overall pulp consumption continues to rise. The futures market has shown a range - bound trend recently [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the current market [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish tendency but with poor operability on the market [1] - Coking coal: ★★☆, indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Iron: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the given star - rating description [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, showing a bullish tendency but with poor operability on the market [1] Core Views - The steel market is affected by macro - sentiment, with cost support under inflation expectations, and the rhythm may be volatile. The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile. Coke and coking coal prices may be prone to rise due to energy concerns from geopolitical conflicts. The silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon markets are also affected by various factors such as energy prices and demand [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market strengthened today. Thread demand improved, production decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil demand improvement slowed, production increased, and inventory gradually decreased but pressure remained. Blast furnaces continued seasonal resumption, and iron - water production increased, but poor steel mill profits restricted further increase. From January - February data, real - estate investment decline narrowed, infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth increased, and steel exports declined from high levels. The spot supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the market is mainly affected by macro - sentiment [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market fluctuated today. Global shipments decreased significantly compared to the previous period and were weaker than the same period last year. Australian shipments declined due to a hurricane, while Brazilian and non - mainstream shipments increased. Domestic arrivals rebounded and were stronger than the same period last year. Terminal demand entered the peak season, iron - water production increased last week, and there is still room for resumption. Geopolitical conflicts bring uncertainty, and high oil prices provide cost support. The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - Coke prices fluctuated during the day. Coking profits were average, and daily production increased slightly. Coke inventory increased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness improved slightly. Carbon element supply is abundant, downstream iron - water production increased slightly, and steel profits improved slightly. Coke futures are at a premium, and coking coal futures are at a large premium to Mongolian coal. High Mongolian coal customs - clearance data still drags down the market. Geopolitical conflicts may make coke prices prone to rise [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices fluctuated widely during the day. Yesterday, the Mongolian coal customs - clearance volume was 1,230 vehicles. Coal mine production returned to a high level, weekly production decreased slightly, and spot auction transactions were good with rising prices mainly due to energy concerns. Terminal inventory increased significantly, and there was some restocking. Total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. Carbon element supply is abundant, downstream iron - water production increased slightly, and steel profits improved slightly. Coke and coking coal futures premiums and high Mongolian coal customs - clearance data still drag down the market. Geopolitical conflicts may make coking coal prices prone to rise [6] Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - manganese prices fluctuated during the day. With rising energy prices, there is an expectation of increased manganese ore mining and transportation costs. Spot manganese ore transaction prices continued to rise, and port inventory increased slightly. Under the influence of typhoons, the inventory accumulation rate at ports is expected to decline. Iron - water production increased significantly on the demand side. Silicon - manganese supply decreased slightly, factory inventory decreased, and warehouse - receipt inventory increased slightly, with overall inventory decreasing [7] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices were strongly volatile during the day. Lanthanum - carbon prices increased significantly, eroding some smelting profits. As spot prices followed the futures prices, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia in the main production areas turned profitable, and losses in other areas decreased. Iron - water production rebounded significantly on the demand side. Export demand remained at about 25,000 tons, with little marginal impact, and monthly export volume is expected to remain at about 35,000 tons in the medium - to - long term. Magnesium metal production remained at a high level, and secondary demand was relatively stable. Overall demand is still resilient. Ferrosilicon weekly supply decreased slightly, inventory decreased overall, and prices may be driven by silicon - manganese [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel and ore markets are expected to continue their volatile trends. The support and pressure levels for rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore are given, and specific trading strategies are proposed, including short - term operations, arbitrage strategies such as long - spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and long - rebar and short - iron ore strategies [1][2] Summary by Directory Market Review - On Friday, rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore closed down. At night, hot - rolled coils closed down while rebar and iron ore closed up [1] Important Information - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 1.02456 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% (calculated on a comparable basis) [1] - The steel industry had a loss of 2.47 billion yuan from January to February [1] - Some ships from three countries were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. On March 28, Iran agreed to let 20 more Pakistani ships pass through, allowed several Malaysian oil tankers stranded in the strait to pass, and Thailand reached an agreement with Iran on the passage of its oil tankers [1] - On March 28, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched their first military operation in response to the escalating regional situation, using multiple ballistic missiles to strike "important military targets" in Israel [1] - On March 30, 2026, Tangshan, Handan, Cangzhou, Langfang, Baoding, Hengshui and other places lifted the emergency response to heavy pollution weather [1] Market Logic - On the 27th, the price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3220 yuan, down 10 yuan; the price of Shanghai Angang/Benxi Steel hot - rolled coils was 3290 yuan, unchanged [1] - On the 27th, the market prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port decreased by 3 yuan. For example, 60.8% PB powder was 785 yuan, down 3 yuan [1] - On the 27th, the spot market of port coke remained stable. The trading atmosphere in the domestic spot market was average. The total inventory of the two ports increased. The inventory at Rizhao Port was 470,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; at Qingdao Port was 830,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the total inventory was 1.3 million tons, up 150,000 tons from last week [1] - Last week, rebar production decreased by 54,600 tons, apparent demand increased by 172,800 tons, and the inventory decreased by 275,000 tons (47,600 tons the week before last). Hot - rolled coil production increased by 54,000 tons, apparent demand increased by 31,200 tons, and the inventory decreased by 80,200 tons (103,000 tons the week before last). Overall, the fundamentals of rebar were stronger than those of hot - rolled coils last week [1] - Last week, the daily output of molten iron was 2.31 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons. The profitability rate was 43.29%, an increase of 0.87% [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 176.6683 million tons, a decrease of 1.4735 million tons from the previous week; at 45 ports was 170.0031 million tons, a decrease of 0.9809 million tons [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills across the country was 89.7856 million tons, a decrease of 0.555 million tons from the previous week [1] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points; the profitability rate was 43.29%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average output of molten iron was 2.3109 million tons, an increase of 29,400 tons [1][2] - Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 58.87%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the previous week and 3.87 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating rate was 68.82%, an increase of 1.93 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 4.51 percentage points from the same period last year [2] Trading Strategies - It is expected that steel and ore will continue to fluctuate. The support and pressure levels for rebar are 3000 and 3200 respectively; for hot - rolled coils are 3180 and 3350 respectively; for iron ore are 750 and 840 respectively [2] - For single - side trading, short - term operations are recommended [2] - For arbitrage, the strategy of long - spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar can be held cautiously. The closing price difference on Friday was 175. Conservative investors can consider taking profits or reducing positions due to the weaker fundamentals of hot - rolled coils than rebar recently [2] - The ratio of rebar to iron ore is 3.85. The strategy of long - rebar and short - iron ore is recommended to enter the market before the holiday, hold it in the short - term, and exit after the holiday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the black sector rose first and then fell, with raw materials outperforming finished products, especially coking coal, whose price increased significantly. The Iran-US negotiation news led to a decline in crude oil prices and a cooling atmosphere in the futures market. The focus of the macro - policy remains on the Middle East situation, and the "negotiation" between the US and Iran is still uncertain, which will continue to affect the global market in the short term. In terms of the industrial pattern, steel demand is continuously recovering, and steel inventories continued to decline last week. On the raw material side, coking coal production has returned to a normal - to - high level since last year, and iron ore shipments are at a seasonal low [3]. - Steel, coking coal, coke, and iron ore are all expected to move in a volatile manner. For steel, the futures price of rebar is below the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, with a relatively low static valuation. The demand is still recovering, and the inventory is declining, but the de - stocking speed is not fast. For coking coal, domestic production continues to rise, and the total inventory slightly accumulates, with downstream inventory increasing and upstream mines de - stocking. For coke, production slightly increased last week, and the total inventory increased, with independent coking plants de - stocking and steel mills and ports increasing inventory. For iron ore, with the resumption of steel mills' production, hot metal output continued to increase last week, but it is still lower than the same period last year and has room for further growth. Iron ore shipments and arrivals are at a seasonal low, and the inventories of steel mills and ports both decreased last week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison: Rise and Fall - The black sector rose first and then fell last week, with raw materials performing better than finished products, and coking coal prices rising significantly [3][5] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison: Lithium Carbonate Soars, Crude Oil Drops - In the futures market, lithium carbonate had a large increase, while crude oil prices dropped due to the news of the Iran - US negotiation [3][7] 03 Spot Price: Coking Coal Rises Sharply, Iron Ore and Scrap Steel Fall - The spot price of coking coal increased significantly, while iron ore and scrap steel prices decreased [9] 04 Profit and Valuation: Poor Steel Mill Profits, Low Rebar Futures Valuation - Steel mills' profitability is poor, and the futures price of rebar is below the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces, with a relatively low static valuation [4][11] 05 Steel Supply and Demand: Demand Continues to Recover, Inventory Continues to Decline - Steel demand is continuing to recover, and steel inventories are continuously declining. However, the current de - stocking speed is not fast, and the quality of demand needs further attention [4][13] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand: Hot Metal Output Increases, Steel Mill and Port Inventories Decrease - With the resumption of steel mills' production, hot metal output continued to increase last week, but it is still lower than the same period last year and has room for further growth. Recent iron ore shipments and arrivals are at a seasonal low, and the inventories of steel mills and ports both decreased last week [4][22] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand: Raw Coal Production Increases, Inventory Transfers to Downstream - Domestic coking coal production continues to rise and is at a normal - to - high level since last year. The total coking coal inventory slightly accumulates, with downstream inventory increasing and upstream mines de - stocking [4][25] 08 Coke Supply and Demand: Production Recovers from a Low Level, Port Inventory Increases Significantly - Coke production slightly increased last week, and the total inventory increased, with independent coking plants de - stocking and steel mills and ports increasing inventory [4][27] 09 Variety Price Difference: Steel Mill Profits Decline, Coke/Coking Coal Ratio Drops - Steel mill profits are declining, and the coke/coking coal ratio is decreasing [29] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - Iran put forward six conditions for a cease - fire, including ensuring no more war, closing US military bases in the Middle East, and having the aggressor pay compensation to Iran. The "Shanghai Seven" real - estate policy has been in effect for one month, and the cumulative net signing of second - hand houses in Shanghai from March 1 to March 24 increased by 3% year - on - year. The IEA warned that it may take six months to restore oil and gas supply in the Persian Gulf, and the world is facing the most serious energy crisis in history. Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted upwards on March 23. Goldman Sachs said that the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%. The US government put forward a 15 - condition plan to end the conflict with Iran through Pakistan, and the US is considering a one - month cease - fire. US President Trump will visit China in mid - May. Zimbabwe's lithium export ban has continued for nearly a month, and the impact may exceed market expectations. Russia will temporarily stop ammonium nitrate exports for one month. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 pm on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Iran-US conflict subsides, crude oil prices are likely to fall. Geopolitical conflicts usually cause short - term emotional premiums in oil prices, and the risk premium will quickly be reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, and the price will return to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals. If the current conflict is quickly resolved and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from its current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel [3][4]. - When crude oil prices fall, the crude oil chemical futures market will generally follow the decline, but there will be structural differentiation. Direct oil - chemical varieties will decline in sync with crude oil, while coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties have stronger resistance to price drops, and the downstream processing sector will see improved profitability [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. After the Iran - US conflict, crude oil prices are likely to fall - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East usually lead to short - term emotional premiums in oil prices. After most Middle - East geopolitical events, the risk premium of crude oil will be quickly reversed within weeks to 2 - 3 months, and the price will return to be determined by supply - demand fundamentals. - If the current conflict is quickly resolved and the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Brent crude oil is likely to fall from its current high to the range of $62 - 73 per barrel, and the geopolitical premium will disappear. - Only when there is a substantial long - term blockade or continuous interruption of supply in core oil - producing areas can oil prices remain high for a long time, but the probability of this scenario is currently low [3][4]. II. Trends of the crude oil chemical sector and futures when crude oil prices fall - Crude oil chemical futures will generally follow the decline of crude oil, but there will be structural differentiation. - Direct oil - chemical varieties (such as naphtha cracking, pure benzene, ethylene glycol, PTA, PP/PE) will see a weakening of cost support, and their prices will fall in sync with crude oil. The greater the previous increase, the more obvious the decline [5]. III. Key influencing factors and rhythms - Coal - chemical/light - hydrocarbon route varieties (such as coal - based olefins, methanol) have relatively independent costs, stronger resistance to price drops, and a smaller decline compared to pure oil - chemical varieties. - The downstream processing sector (such as plastic and rubber products) will see a relief in cost pressure, an improvement in profitability, and smoother price transmission. - The speed of premium disappearance: The faster the conflict is resolved, the steeper the decline of crude oil and chemical futures, and the main decline is usually completed within 1 - 4 weeks. - Inventory and positions: The concentrated closing of previous profit - taking positions will amplify short - term fluctuations, and the market will gradually return to the supply - demand logic after the decline. - Macroeconomic and supply - demand factors: If the global crude oil inventory rises, OPEC+ increases production, or strategic reserves are released, it will accelerate the decline of oil prices. If the demand side remains stable, the decline will be more moderate [6]. IV. Technical analysis of various futures - **Stock index futures**: The market opened lower and closed higher today, with heavy trading volume at noon and finally closed with a mid -阳线. Technically, the 5 - minute adjustment is sufficient, and it is expected that there will be an upward trend in the early trading on Monday. It is recommended to go long on dips [8][9]. - **Gold**: The daily - level decline of gold has gradually stopped. Gold maintained a volatile trend throughout the day, and a bullish and volatile outlook is recommended for the future [12]. - **Iron ore**: The shipping from Australia and Brazil maintains a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long term, it is in the period of mine production capacity release, and the supply is expected to be loose. On the demand side, steel mills will resume production after the holiday, which may have a certain driving effect, but the start of terminal demand still takes time. Technically, it is in a wide - range high - level shock, and the right - side signal still needs to wait [14][15]. - **Glass**: The daily melting has declined, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The resumption of work of deep - processing enterprises after the holiday needs to be monitored. In the short term, it is more affected by the overall sentiment of commodities. Technically, it should be regarded as a wide - range shock before the upper - level pressure is broken [17][18]. - **Methanol**: From the perspective of the industrial chain transmission mechanism, the current methanol price increase is "cost - driven". In the short term, downstream enterprises can digest cost pressure by raising prices, but if the price remains high for a long time, terminal demand will be suppressed, forming a negative feedback. It should be treated as a high - level shock [19]. - **Pulp**: The trading sentiment in the spot market is average. Domestic pulp mills are operating within the normal range, and the pulp output will not change much. The inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate, and the pressure remains. Downstream paper mills' previously shut - down equipment has gradually resumed production, and the overall pulp consumption continues to rise. The futures market has shown a range - bound trend recently [21].