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反内卷升温,建筑行业如何受益?
2025-07-21 00:32
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The construction industry is facing severe issues of excessive competition and homogenization, leading to low profitability for companies. In 2024, the total revenue of the industry is expected to decline by 4.3%, with a performance drop of 14% [1][3] - The "anti-involution" policy introduced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to eliminate low-price disorderly competition and guide companies to launch new products, which is crucial for the construction industry [2] Key Companies and Their Performance - Central enterprises with good business models and stable cash flows, such as China National Materials and China State Construction International, are expected to benefit from the anti-involution policy due to their strong net profit performance and growth, making them suitable for dividend stock allocation [1][4] - Honglu Steel Structure has seen an increase in production and sales from 2021 to 2024, but its profits have fluctuated significantly, primarily due to steel price volatility. The net profit per ton dropped from 280 RMB in 2021 to 110 RMB in 2024 [1][6] - Zhongguang International and China National Materials are likely to benefit from improved domestic corporate profits, alleviating debt issues and encouraging investment in green technology upgrades [1][9] Market Dynamics - The rise in steel prices has a significant impact on companies like Honglu Steel Structure, which benefits from holding large inventories. The pricing strategy is based on current prices plus processing fees [1][5] - The construction sector may benefit from improved operational quality and valuation recovery due to the anti-involution policy [2] Challenges and Opportunities - The main challenges for the construction industry include excessive competition, homogenization, and issues such as blind expansion and high debt levels, which have led to low profitability [3][11] - Opportunities arise if the Chinese economy can break the deflation spiral and achieve a new growth cycle, leading to demand-side growth. Additionally, increased investment in green technology and the promotion of smart manufacturing will provide new development momentum for construction companies [11] Future Outlook - Honglu Steel Structure's future performance will depend on several factors, including market share improvement, macroeconomic conditions, and advancements in smart manufacturing that can reduce costs significantly [8] - The overall improvement in the competitive environment due to breaking the deflation spiral and healthy price increases will be beneficial for the construction industry and related companies [10]