本周行情综述 铜：本周 LME 铜价+1.99%到 13259.0 美元/吨，沪铜+3.53%到 10.39 万元/吨。供应端，据 SMM，进口铜精矿加工费周 度指数升至-50.43 美元/吨；截至本周四，全国主流地区铜库存环比周二增加 4.56%，总库存同比去年同期增加 15.56 万吨。冶炼端，节后国内废产阳极板企业陆续复工但产量尚未恢复，本周 SMM 废产阳极板企业开工率为 7.45%，预计 下周随企业陆续正常生产，开工率恢复至 54.09%。消费端，据 SMM，铜线缆企业开工率 27.72%，环比增加 12.52 个百 分点。节后正月初八起，多数线缆企业已陆续复工，但受终端复苏滞后影响，尚未完全进入满产状态，生产以执行节 前在手订单为主。元宵节后终端行业将逐步复工，订单释放节奏有望加快，预期下周铜线缆开工率环比增加 30.64 个 百分点至 58.36%，同比去年复工第二周增加 1.25 个百分点；本周漆包线行业已全面复工，但终端消费复苏偏缓，企 业普遍反馈需求恢复至正常水平需待元宵节后，符合往年节奏。 铝：本周 LME 铝价+1.16%到 3141.5 美元/吨，沪铝+2.76%到 2.38 万元/ ...

春节假期刚过，携程迎来其2025年第四季度及全年未经审计财务业绩，财报显示，携程集团2025全年营收624亿元，剔除投资收益净利润134亿元。2025年全 年国际OTA平台总预订同比增长约60%，全年服务入境旅客约2000万人次。 产业结构性破局 中央经济工作会议明确提出，坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场。扩大内需被列为2026年中国经济工作的八大重点任务之首。政策对服务消费的刺激态度明 确，文旅产业作为服务业重要品类，乘数效应显著，有望成为政府扩大内需的政策方向，文旅产业链上酒店、OTA、景区等有望直接受益。 当前促消费新举措陆续出台，或对下阶段服务消费起到明显拉动作用。2025年9月，商务部等九部门发布《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》，将统筹利 用财政、金融等手段，优化服务供给，激发服务消费新增量。商务部等三部门进一步印发《关于加强商务和金融协同 更大力度提振消费的通知》，提出完 善"1+N"政策措施体系，加大服务消费政策支持力度。 值得注意的是，内需增量在扩大，但市场上依然存在品质不足等问题，从供给端来看，有些产品千篇一律，部分景区依然是门票单一化收入结构、一些地方 导游还出现坐地起价和强制购物等问题。 ...

文｜迈点 今年不一样，数据依然火爆，但热闹背后，是需求、供给、城市格局、消费观念的全面重构。 从"回家过年" 到 "出去过年"，从 "有得住" 到 "住得好"，从 "大城市虹吸" 到 "小县城爆发"，酒店不再只是睡觉的地方。 今年春节，酒店行业真的变天了。 不是一房难求，不是价格疯涨，而是中国住宿业，已经换了套玩法。 过去看春节酒店市场，只看三件事：满房、涨价、赚得多。 先看最直观的现象：小城赢麻了，一线城市反而冷静了 它成了家庭团圆、旅行方式、城市竞争力、行业成熟度的集中投影。 这些变化背后，藏着怎样的时代风向？ 小城赢麻了，一线城市冷静了 今年春节，潮汕、泉州、景德镇、乐山、阳朔酒店预订量同比普遍翻倍，县域市场增幅更是超过200%。 最典型的广东汕头，平日一两百的经济型酒店，春节直接涨到2000+。 另一边，北京、上海等一线城市，高端酒店价格不涨反跌，部分五星酒店价格比平日还低10%-30%，仅靠 "反向过年" 勉强稳住入住率。 这种价格倒挂，不是临时现象，而是需求外溢、供给短缺、出行平权共同作用的结果。 过去，酒店行业的逻辑是：大城市= 高价值 = 高价格。 今年春节给出的答案是：有人气、有体验、有特色 ...

北京商报讯（记者 翟枫瑞）2月25日，装修建材板块增长，以18828.69点收盘，涨幅为2.12%。在板块 带动下，多只装修建材股股价实现增长。科顺股份以8.19元/股收盘，涨幅为14.23%，领涨装修建材 股。美克家居以2.85元/股收盘，涨幅为10.04%，涨幅位列装修建材股第二。东方雨虹以18.75元/股收 盘，涨幅为9.08%，涨幅位列装修建材股第三。除此之外，悦心健康以5.27元/股收盘，跌幅为7.22%， 领跌装修建材股。森鹰窗业以36.43元/股收盘，跌幅为3.24%，跌幅位列装修建材股第二。好莱客以 15.06元/股收盘，跌幅为2.59%，跌幅位列装修建材股第三。 华福证券在研报中表示，在反内卷加速供给侧改革预期下，建材产能周期有望迎来拐点。预期来看，利 率下行有利购房意愿修复，收储及城改有助购房能力修复，购房意愿及能力边际修复预期预计推动房地 产市场基本面企稳概率增加，亦有望推动地产后周期需求修复。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - **Steel Industry**: The outlook for the steel industry has shifted from cautious to bullish, primarily driven by supply-side expectations. The current profitability of the industry is low, which is seen as a potential opportunity for investment. The focus is on the supply-side policies that are influenced by the industry's profitability levels. The investment opportunities are concentrated during periods of poor profitability or strong expectations for recovery [1][2]. - **Non-Ferrous Metals**: The overall sentiment towards non-ferrous metals is positive, with a particular emphasis on the strategic importance of reserves. The current market conditions are compared to the 1970s, indicating that traditional supply-demand dynamics may not fully capture the market's behavior. Central bank gold purchases are highlighted as a significant factor influencing prices [3][4]. Key Insights - **Steel Sector Performance**: The steel sector is expected to face challenges in 2024, with a significant downturn anticipated in Q3 and Q4. However, there is a belief that supply-side expectations will strengthen in 2025, particularly in early 2025, before tapering off as profitability improves later in the year. Recommended stocks include Hualing Steel and Baosteel [2]. - **Gold and Silver Market**: The gold and silver markets are expected to maintain their upward trajectory due to concerns over U.S. dollar credit and geopolitical tensions. The current environment is seen as favorable for gold prices, with expectations of continued strength in the short term. Silver is noted for its higher price elasticity compared to gold, with potential for strong performance in March due to seasonal demand [5][6][7]. - **Copper Market Dynamics**: The copper market is currently in a seasonal accumulation phase, with domestic inventories exceeding 500,000 tons. The price of copper has stabilized around 100,000 yuan per ton, with expectations for a gradual recovery as demand from downstream industries increases. The long-term outlook remains optimistic due to ongoing demand from AI and electric grid applications [8][9][10][11]. - **Cobalt and Nickel**: The cobalt and nickel markets are expected to experience upward price movements, driven by supply constraints and strategic demand. Recommended stocks include Huayou Cobalt and Li Hang Resources, which are seen as having strong price elasticity [12]. - **Tin Market Outlook**: The tin market is projected to see price increases due to limited supply growth and strong demand from the semiconductor industry. The recommendation is to focus on companies like Xinyi Silver Tin, which are expanding production capacity significantly [13][14][15]. - **Tungsten Market Trends**: The tungsten market is experiencing a price increase, with strong demand from various sectors. Companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhongtian High-tech are expanding their production capabilities, indicating confidence in the market's future [16][17][18][19][20]. - **Rare Earth Elements**: The rare earth market is expected to remain tight, with supply constraints and increasing demand from new energy applications. Companies like Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth are recommended for investment due to their strategic importance and growth potential [21][22][23][24]. Additional Considerations - The overall sentiment across various metal markets indicates a cautious optimism, with strategic reserves and geopolitical factors playing a significant role in price movements. The focus on supply-side dynamics and the potential for recovery in profitability are critical themes for investors to consider moving forward [25].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increases in rare earth metals are attributed to ongoing supply-side reforms and upcoming policy documents for 2024-2025, indicating a bullish outlook for the industry [1][3]. Rare Earth Metals - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide is 849,800 CNY/ton, up 13.51% month-on-month - The price of dysprosium oxide is 1,450,000 CNY/ton, up 9.02% month-on-month - The price of terbium oxide is 6,460,000 CNY/ton, up 5.90% month-on-month - December saw a 3% month-on-month decrease but a 7% year-on-year increase in China's rare earth permanent magnet exports, reaching a historical high for the month [1][3]. - The processing fee for yttrium-rich europium ore has risen to 41,000 CNY/ton, indicating ongoing optimization in the smelting sector [3]. - Key stocks to watch include China Rare Earth (000831), Zhong Rare Metals (600259), Northern Rare Earth (600111), and Baotou Steel (600010) [3]. Tin - The price of tin ingots is 378,200 CNY/ton, down 10.74% month-on-month - Indonesia is considering a ban on tin raw material exports, which may create significant replenishment demand for tin processing companies [4]. - Long-term demand is expected to benefit from AI and automotive smart technology, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance for tin [4]. - Recommended stocks include Huaxi Nonferrous (600301) and others [4]. Tungsten - The price of tungsten concentrate is 696,700 CNY/ton, up 15.99% month-on-month - The price of ammonium paratungstate is 1,025,200 CNY/ton, up 15.11% month-on-month - The U.S. is increasing its strategic reserves, which may elevate tungsten's priority in the market [4]. - Recommended stocks include China Tungsten High-Tech (000657) and Xiamen Tungsten (600549) [4]. Antimony - The price of antimony ingots is 165,100 CNY/ton, up 0.62% month-on-month - The price of antimony concentrate is 144,000 CNY/ton, up 2.13% month-on-month - December saw a 4% month-on-month increase but a 71% year-on-year decrease in antimony exports [5]. - The outlook remains positive due to potential recovery in exports and stable demand, particularly in the photovoltaic glass sector [5]. - Recommended stocks include Huaxi Nonferrous and Hunan Gold (002155) [5]. Molybdenum - The price of molybdenum concentrate is 4,165 CNY/ton, up 2.97% month-on-month - The price of ferromolybdenum is 267,100 CNY/ton, up 3.33% month-on-month - The domestic molybdenum price is stabilizing due to high tungsten prices and increased defense spending [5]. - Recommended stocks include Jinduicheng Molybdenum (601958) and Guocheng Mining (000688) [5].

当老乡鸡向港交所递交老乡鸡上市申请，这家从安徽起步的中式快餐品牌，正以扎实的供给侧实践，诠释民生餐饮与资本赋能的共生之道。其IPO征程不仅 是企业规模化发展的必然选择，更藏着"扩内需"背景下，餐饮行业以品质与性价比赢得市场的密码。 冲击IPO并非追求规模的盲目扩张，而是为全产业链升级注入资本动能。募集资金将进一步强化供应链与门店标准化建设，让亲民价策略在全国布局中持续 落地。这种"资本反哺民生"的路径，恰是供给侧改革创新的生动实践——不依赖溢价竞争，而是靠产业链优化、品质升级，满足人们对美好生活的具体向 往。 从一家区域门店到全国超1600家门店的规模，老乡鸡IPO、老乡鸡上市的故事印证了：扩内需的根基在于供给侧对民生需求的响应。当资本与民生餐饮正向 绑定，既守住了亲民价的民生底线，又通过规模化、标准化升级提升品质，便走出了一条兼顾社会责任与商业可持续的发展之路，为行业提供了可借鉴的范 本。 全产业链布局是老乡鸡坚守亲民价的核心底气。上游端，品牌自建标准化养鸡基地，采用二段式养殖模式：前100天半封闭式平养让鸡只自然生长，后80天 转入自有基地全封闭式笼养，全程禁药管控，从源头保障食材品质与成本可控。中游中央 ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 内卷这道题该怎么解？——美国电力的经验 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SFC：BQT627 刘亚辉 张子淳 SAC：S0490523080003 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 [Table_Summary] 美国 PJM 市场近年来恰好经历反内卷的脱困，其脱困原因不仅仅是 AI 带来的需求修复，供给 改革同样重要，其修改容量市场供给曲线来实现容量电价的数倍上涨，最终实现内反内卷的成 功。我们认为国内可靠容量机制推广具有类似的结果，而且火电走出内卷困境的方式无疑也可 以作为我国众多过剩产业脱困的关键思路：政策发力强制产能退出才能有效、直接解决供求过 剩的矛盾，强制退出的重要手牌中，"低碳"、"环保"往往是最优先考虑的选项，同时核定产能 规则调整所带来的变化对供给侧的影响最为有效，也更容易被大多数市场主体所接受。如果能 够 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the small metals sector, with the Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index rising by 3.25% during the period, outperforming both the Shenwan Nonferrous Index and the CSI 300 Index by 10.21 percentage points and 4.23 percentage points respectively [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the prices of rare earth elements have reached new highs, driven by supply-side reforms and increasing demand for overseas stockpiling, particularly in the context of the upcoming supply-side documents for 2024-2025 [3][18]. - Tin prices have shown volatility due to macroeconomic factors, with Indonesia considering a ban on tin raw material exports, which could create significant replenishment demand for tin processing companies [4][28]. - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to increased strategic stockpiling in the U.S. and domestic demand from both civilian and military sectors [4][41]. - Antimony prices are anticipated to recover as exports stabilize, supported by a steady demand in the photovoltaic glass sector [5][47]. - Molybdenum prices are stabilizing and expected to rise due to low inventory levels and increased defense spending [6][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Market and Commodity Price Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index closed at 39,286.62 points, reflecting a 3.25% increase [2][13]. - Key commodity prices showed varied performance, with rare earth oxides like praseodymium-neodymium oxide increasing by 13.51%, while tin ingot prices decreased by 10.74% [4][16]. 2. Main Product Fundamentals and Views Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide reached 849,800 CNY/ton, up 13.51% [3][19]. - The sector is expected to see dual growth in valuation and performance, with key companies to watch including China Rare Earth, Zhong Rare Metals, and Northern Rare Earth [3][19]. Tin - Tin ingot prices fell to 378,200 CNY/ton, down 10.74% [4][28]. - The potential export ban by Indonesia could lead to a new price cycle for tin [4][28]. Tungsten - Tungsten concentrate prices rose to 696,700 CNY/ton, up 15.99% [4][41]. - The U.S. strategic stockpiling initiative may elevate tungsten's market priority [4][41]. Antimony - Antimony ingot prices increased to 165,100 CNY/ton, up 0.62% [5][47]. - The report anticipates a recovery in exports, which could lead to price increases [5][47]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices reached 4,165 CNY/ton, up 2.97% [6][51]. - The report suggests that low inventory levels and increased military spending will support price growth [6][51].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the small metals sector, with the Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index rising by 3.25% during the period, outperforming both the Shenwan Nonferrous Index and the CSI 300 Index by 10.21 percentage points and 4.23 percentage points, respectively [2][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the prices of rare earth elements have reached new highs, driven by supply-side reforms and increasing overseas inventory demand. The prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 13.51%, dysprosium oxide by 9.02%, and terbium oxide by 5.90% [3][18][19]. - Tin prices have shown volatility, with a decrease of 10.74% in the current period. The potential ban on tin raw material exports from Indonesia may create significant replenishment demand for tin processing companies, positively impacting tin prices in the long term [4][28]. - Tungsten prices have increased significantly, with tungsten concentrate rising by 15.99% and ammonium paratungstate by 15.11%. The report suggests that the strategic reserve initiatives in the U.S. may elevate tungsten's priority in global markets [4][40]. - Antimony prices have shown a slight increase, with antimony ingot prices up by 0.62% and antimony concentrate by 2.13%. The report anticipates a recovery in exports, which could lead to a price rebound [5][47]. - Molybdenum prices have stabilized, with molybdenum concentrate prices increasing by 2.97% and ferromolybdenum by 3.33%. The report notes that low inventory levels and increased defense spending may support further price increases [6][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Stock Market and Commodity Price Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Small Metals Index closed at 39,286.62 points, reflecting a 3.25% increase [2][13]. - Commodity prices for rare earths, tungsten, and molybdenum have shown upward trends, while tin prices have decreased [16]. 2. Main Product Fundamentals and Insights 2.1 Rare Earths - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reforms and the rising prices of rare earths, with significant export demand expected to continue [3][18][19]. 2.2 Tin - The potential export ban from Indonesia could lead to increased demand for tin processing, positively affecting prices in the long run [4][28]. 2.3 Tungsten - The report highlights the strategic importance of tungsten in global markets, with prices rising significantly due to supply constraints and increased military spending [4][40]. 2.4 Antimony - Antimony prices are expected to recover as export conditions improve, with a focus on high-growth resource companies [5][47]. 2.5 Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are projected to rise due to low inventory levels and increased demand from the defense sector [6][51].