Core Viewpoint - The domestic methanol market is gradually strengthening amid rising international geopolitical tensions, but the rebound in prices is expected to be limited due to insufficient demand support [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The methanol market in 2025 is projected to experience a supply-demand imbalance due to increased supply and weak demand, leading to a price decline of over 15% by year-end compared to the beginning of the year [2] - Supply-side factors include high operating rates of coal and natural gas methanol production facilities at 80% and 49% respectively, with an overall industry operating rate exceeding 78%, resulting in ample production [2] - The demand side is constrained by weak traditional downstream demand and insufficient growth in emerging demand, particularly in the methanol-to-olefins (MTO) sector, which is affected by negative margins [2] External Influences - International geopolitical situations and changes in imports significantly impact the methanol market, with Iranian methanol production currently at a low operating rate of around 16% due to domestic issues, leading to a substantial decrease in exports to China [3] - In January, China's methanol import volume is estimated to be between 1.05 million and 1.1 million tons, a decrease of approximately 400,000 tons from the previous month, which may boost market confidence [3] Market Dynamics - The current methanol spot market is characterized by platform consolidation, with expectations of inventory reduction at ports, but weakened demand from sectors like MTO may limit price movements [4] - In 2026, methanol prices may exhibit seasonal volatility, with potential price increases in the first half due to lower import pressure, while the second half may face significant import challenges [4] - Long-term prospects indicate that green methanol could become a core focus due to its applications in shipping and electric vehicles, driven by EU carbon border adjustment mechanisms, leading to a shift towards higher industry concentration and green transformation [4]