近期，在国际地缘局势持续推高溢价的背景下，国内甲醇行情逐步走强。1月26日，甲醇主力合约收于 2347元(吨价，下同)，山东地区出厂基准价为2173元。业内人士分析，甲醇价格或迎来阶段性反弹，但 由于需求端支撑不足，反弹空间预计有限，仍将处于低位震荡态势。 供应端双重扩容 需求端支撑乏力 华鲁恒升化工原料采购公司经理刘卫明指出，2025年国内甲醇市场受供应增量、进口冲击及需求疲软影 响，供需失衡态势凸显，价格全年震荡下行，年末现货均价较年初下跌超15%，行业盈利持续承压。 从需求端看，传统下游需求疲软与新兴需求培育不足制约消费增长。核心下游甲醇制烯烃(MTO)行业受 聚烯烃利润倒挂影响，外采装置长期亏损、开工维持低位；甲醇燃料、商用车等新兴需求逐步释放，但 受行业标准、配套设施等因素制约，规模仍小，短期难以弥补传统需求缺口。 外围扰动强冲击 伊朗进口成变数 国际地缘局势与进口变化对甲醇市场影响显著。金联创资讯分析师张晓艳指出，2025年甲醇进口价格波 动主要受海外供应、国际物流及区域价差等多重因素影响。 金联创数据显示，目前伊朗甲醇年产能1731万吨，占全球总量的9.36%；2025年对华出口量873万吨， ...

2026年，甲醇结束了自去年7月以来的下跌趋势，转入上涨行情。我们认为，甲醇价格止跌走强的原 因，除了大类资产共振上涨的带动外，甲醇自身低估值和港口去库预期也提供了重要支撑。此外，地缘 政治因素对甲醇价格产生明显影响，放大了价格的波动幅度。 进口预期缩减 甲醇港口库存自去年5月进入季节性累积周期，9月升至历史最高位。去年四季度，港口库存居高不下， 未出现往年同期流畅去库的态势。受高库存压制，甲醇价格表现偏弱。 2025年11月，随着天气转冷，伊朗甲醇装置开始陆续停车。伊朗甲醇以天然气为原料，近年来受天然气 资源匮乏困扰，冬季为保障居民供暖，天然气制甲醇装置需阶段性停车。自2019年实施冬季限气以来， 伊朗甲醇装置一般于11月中旬起陆续停车。去年因气温偏高，停车时间有所推迟，11月下旬才逐步开 始。11月24日，两套年产330万吨装置率先停车，其他装置陆续跟进。据金联创统计，截至2026年1月15 日，伊朗多数甲醇装置已经停车，整体开工率不足两成。 甲醇制烯烃（MTO）是甲醇最主要的下游。据卓创统计，目前，国内煤制烯烃行业开工率为80.75%， 较前一期下降4.67个百分点。具体来看，港口目前有两套装置停车检修 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term methanol investment will be mainly oscillating, supported by reduced imports and the expectation of tight supply - demand balance. High port inventory but increasing de - stocking expectations, stable coal prices providing cost support, and geopolitical sentiment enhancing market resilience. The core price range is expected to be 2200 - 2300 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - This week, methanol supply contracted overall, affected by both import and domestic production adjustments. Import volume decreased significantly, and although domestic capacity utilization increased slightly, total output declined due to new maintenance and production cuts in some plants. Next period, supply is expected to recover as more plants plan to resume production and there will be fewer maintenance and production cuts. Different production processes have different operating rates, with coal - based methanol operation relatively stable and natural - gas - based processes fluctuating slightly [2] Demand - This week, methanol demand remained weak in the off - season, showing significant structural differentiation. Total consumption decreased slightly week - on - week, lacking an upward driver. The main downstream methanol - to - olefins (MTO) industry was mediocre, with regional differences in operating rates. Traditional downstream industries generally had weak demand, with most industries' loads declining. In the short term, the demand side will remain weak and needs the resumption of downstream plants, the release of terminal demand, or favorable policies [2] Inventory - This week, methanol inventory increased at a high level, and the pressure to reduce inventory has not been alleviated. Inland enterprise inventory has been increasing for four weeks, and port inventory also rose. Although the unloading of foreign vessels was smooth, the提货 volume in some warehouses decreased. Overall, the current inventory is at a high level, and the supply - demand contradiction has eased but not fundamentally improved [2] Methanol Profit - This week, the profits of methanol and its downstream industrial chain showed obvious differentiation. Methanol - end profits improved slightly, while most downstream industries were still under pressure. The losses of coal - based and natural - gas - based methanol production processes narrowed, and only the profit of coke - oven - gas - based production decreased slightly but remained profitable. Most downstream industries saw increased losses, and only a few products like glacial acetic acid and MTBE had improved profits [2] Politics - This week, the political situation in Iran was tense both domestically and internationally. Domestically, there were sporadic demonstrations due to rising prices and currency depreciation, and the situation was gradually stabilizing. Internationally, the US and Israel were accused of interfering in Iran's internal affairs, and Iran's military, president, and permanent representative to the UN strongly responded [2] Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, the strategy is "oscillating with a slight upward bias"; for arbitrage, it is to "wait and see". Key factors to watch include downstream demand, olefin procurement, spring maintenance, and geopolitics [2]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Lianhong New Materials indicates the successful commissioning of its integrated project, which is expected to enhance product diversity and demonstrate industry chain advantages, positively impacting performance despite uncertainties in product profitability [1] Group 1: Project Details - The integrated project by Lianhong New Materials commenced construction in April 2024 and is scheduled for overall completion by September 2025 [1] - Key production units include: - 300,000 tons/year of Propylene Oxide (PO) - 1,300,000 tons/year of Methanol-to-Olefins (MTO) - 200,000 tons/year of Ethylene-Vinyl Acetate (EVA) - 240,000 tons/year of Polyether Polyols (PPG) - All major units have successfully started operations and produced qualified products, currently running stably [1] Group 2: Impact on Company Performance - The project is expected to enrich the company's product structure and highlight its industry chain advantages [1] - There is an anticipation of a positive impact on the company's performance due to the project, although product profitability remains uncertain [1]

Core Insights - The Lianhong Gelun integrated project has achieved a significant milestone with the successful commissioning of a 1.3 million tons/year Methanol-to-Olefins (MTO) unit and a 200,000 tons/year Ethylene-Vinyl Acetate (EVA) unit, marking a smooth operation and production of qualified products [1] Group 1: Project Progress - The project team has systematically advanced the trial production preparations since the overall completion of the Lianhong Gelun integrated project in late September 2025, including developing various contingency plans and conducting equipment checks [1] - After the initiation of feedstock input, the team meticulously calculated and controlled the reaction parameters and conditions of each unit to ensure a successful startup [1] Group 2: Production Achievements - The MTO unit commenced methanol feed on December 10 at 18:18, with qualified ethylene and propylene products entering storage by December 11 at 01:30, achieving a 100% qualification rate for the first batch, setting a new record for similar units [1] - Following the commissioning of the EVA unit, Lianhong New Materials' EVA production capacity has increased from 160,000 tons/year to 360,000 tons/year, enhancing production flexibility and market competitiveness [2]

Group 1 - The Lianhong Gelun integrated project achieved a significant milestone on December 10, with the successful commissioning of a 1.3 million tons/year Methanol-to-Olefins (MTO) unit and a 200,000 tons/year Ethylene-Vinyl Acetate (EVA) unit, marking a smooth operation and qualified product output [1][3] - Since the overall completion of the Lianhong Gelun integrated project in late September 2025, the project team has systematically advanced trial production preparations, ensuring orderly operations through comprehensive planning and training [1] - The MTO unit achieved a 100% product qualification rate during its first feed, setting a new record for similar units, and will provide stable raw material support for downstream high-end new material products [1] Group 2 - Following the commissioning of the EVA unit, Lianhong New Materials' EVA production capacity increased from 160,000 tons/year to 360,000 tons/year, enhancing production flexibility and market competitiveness [3] - The integrated project’s ongoing commissioning of various units is expected to further drive the company's scale and profitability growth [3]

Core Insights - The Lianhong New Materials' subsidiary, Lianhong Gerun, has achieved significant progress with the successful commissioning of its 130,000 tons/year Methanol-to-Olefins (MTO) unit and 20,000 tons/year Ethylene-Vinyl Acetate (EVA) unit, marking a smooth operation and qualified product output [1] Group 1 - The MTO unit commenced methanol feed on December 10 at 18:18, with qualified ethylene and propylene products entering storage by December 11 at 01:30, achieving a 100% product qualification rate on the first run, setting a new record for similar units [1] - The EVA unit's production capacity has increased from 160,000 tons/year to 360,000 tons/year, enhancing production flexibility with both tubular and kettle methods, better meeting the diverse application needs in photovoltaic, cable, and foaming sectors, thus strengthening market competitiveness [2] - The ongoing commissioning of the integrated project’s units is expected to further drive the company's scale and profitability growth [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The upward space of methanol 01 contract is limited. The downstream MTO profit is poor, and further price increases may lead to negative demand feedback. The downstream restocking willingness is weak due to profit levels and high inventories, and the inland profit is also poor [4][39]. - Previously, it was recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options for the 01 contract and pay attention to long opportunities in the far - month contracts. Currently, it is suggested to hold the 01 put - selling option until maturity, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of the 01 contract [4][39]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - From November 17 to December 1, the methanol market rebounded from the bottom, mainly due to the expected changes brought by the implementation of Iranian plant shutdowns, which was in line with previous judgments [4][9][39]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis remained stable, and the near - far month spread rebounded slightly. The near - month price, which was previously oversold, rebounded relatively more due to the change in expectations. On November 17, the basis in East China was - 19 yuan/ton, and on December 1, it was - 16 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread was - 116 yuan/ton on November 17, dropped to - 137 yuan/ton on November 19, and rebounded to - 96 yuan/ton on December 1 [10]. 3. Supply - side Analysis 3.1 Cost and Operation - The profit of upstream coal - to - methanol slightly rebounded. The inland methanol price was relatively stronger than that in coastal areas, and the recent slight decline in coal prices led to the profit rebound. However, it is still the peak coal - using season, and the cost is unlikely to drop significantly, which supports the methanol price. Last week, the coal - to - methanol operation rate remained stable at a high level, while the gas - to - methanol operation rate declined. As of December 1, the Qinhuangdao steam - coal closing price was 821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to November 17, and the Datong steam - coal wagon - board price was 710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. As of November 27, the weekly operation rate of coal - to - methanol enterprises was 82.42%, a month - on - month increase of 0.11 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.17 percentage points; the weekly operation rate of gas - to - methanol enterprises was 45.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.87 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.19 percentage points [12]. 3.2 Inventory - The turning point of port inventory accumulation has appeared. After the implementation of Iranian plant shutdowns, the import pressure of methanol in the first quarter of next year will be greatly relieved. As of the week of November 27, the total port inventory was 116.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.64 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 16.57 million tons. The inland inventory was lower than the same period in previous years. However, the impact of Iranian plant shutdowns on imports is mainly in January - February next year, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction and high port inventory are difficult to solve in the 01 contract [18]. 4. Demand - side Analysis 4.1 MTO Demand - The profit of downstream MTO has significantly deteriorated, especially in the northwest region, mainly due to the weak price of downstream polyolefins. As of November 27, the weekly operation rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 86.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.76 percentage points; the weekly operation rate of enterprises purchasing methanol externally for olefin production was 82.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.75 percentage points. The MTO demand restricts the upward movement of methanol prices [22]. 4.2 Traditional Demand - The weighted operation rate of traditional downstream industries slightly rebounded, mainly due to the increase in the acetic acid operation rate. However, winter is still the off - season for traditional demand, and the demand for methanol is limited [29]. 5. Summary and Outlook - The market review is the same as the previous part. The view is that the 01 contract put - selling option should be held until maturity, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of the 01 contract. The strategy is to hold the 01 put - selling option until maturity [39][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply - demand structure of the methanol market is expected to improve, and the methanol futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile trend [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iran Export Restrictions - On October 9, 9 ships responsible for Iran's methanol transportation to China were included in the SDN list, with a total annual transportation capacity of over 4 million tons, accounting for about 40% of Iran's methanol exports to China, which may cause a significant short - term reduction in Iran's methanol arrivals [2] - The sanctions cut off some logistics channels and led to insurance suspension, causing some ships to be stranded. In the short term, the unloading in East China ports will slow down, and the futures price will rise. In the long term, a new transportation network may be built, and the proportion of non - Iran sources may increase, but the cost will be higher [2] Decline in China's Imports - China imports 25% - 30% of its methanol from Iran. The sanctions have cut off logistics channels and increased "secondary sanctions" risks, leading to shipping insurance suspension and ship scheduling tension [2] - In the short term, due to insufficient alternative capacity and longer voyages, the unloading in East China ports will slow down, and the futures price will rise. In the long term, new transportation networks may be built, and non - Iran sources may increase, but the cost will be 300 - 400 yuan/ton higher [2] Demand Recovery - After the National Day holiday, MTO devices restarted, and the average operating load reached 87.97% as of October 10, 2025, a 4.94 - percentage - point increase. The futures profit of methanol - to - olefins decreased by 14 yuan/ton [3] - As of October 10, 2025, the methanol inventory in East and South China ports was 1273000 tons, a slight increase. If Iran's arrivals decline and MTO devices' operating load rises, the inventory may fall [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Huisheng Engineering, reported a strong financial turnaround in 2024, with significant revenue growth and profitability recovery, indicating a positive shift in its business trajectory [1][4]. Financial Performance - The total revenue for 2024 reached approximately 5.65 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 47.0%, ending a previous downward trend [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 140 million yuan, a significant recovery from losses in the previous year [1]. - Operating cash flow improved dramatically, with a net cash flow from operating activities of about 3.09 billion yuan, up from 650 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. Business Segments - The core petrochemical segment generated approximately 4.66 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 54.7% [2]. - The coal chemical segment reported revenue of about 820 million yuan, an increase of 33.8% [2]. - The new energy segment achieved a breakthrough with revenue of approximately 26.8 million yuan [2]. Order Growth and Talent Acquisition - New signed orders surged to approximately 10.87 billion yuan, representing a staggering year-on-year increase of 2,563.6% [3]. - The total value of uncompleted contracts reached about 25.72 billion yuan, ensuring future revenue growth [3]. - The company expanded its workforce significantly, hiring over 30 key professionals and more than 100 senior talents, increasing total employees to 1,867, up by 259 from the previous year [3]. Green Transformation and International Strategy - Huisheng Engineering has made substantial progress in green transformation, successfully implementing technologies for green hydrogen, green ammonia, and biomass [4]. - The company has expanded its international project footprint, with overseas revenue exceeding 70% for the first time, becoming a major growth driver [4]. - Strategic collaborations with industry giants like Saudi Aramco and ADNOC have been deepened, with several high-profile projects actively progressing [4]. Valuation Perspective - The current price-to-earnings ratio is below 8 times, and the price-to-book ratio is approximately 0.4 times, indicating that the company is significantly undervalued [4].