Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran is significantly impacting the aluminum supply chain in the Middle East, leading to increased aluminum prices and potential production disruptions in the region [1][2]. Group 1: Event Summary - Qatar Aluminum and Bahrain Aluminum announced force majeure due to the conflict, with annual production capacities of 636,000 tons and 1.62 million tons, respectively, accounting for 0.8% and 2.0% of global production [1]. - Following these announcements, LME aluminum prices surged, increasing by 2.5% on March 3 and reaching a peak of $3,418 per ton on March 4, the highest since 2022 [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The conflict poses a risk of extended production halts in the Middle East aluminum industry, as production relies on natural gas. Disruptions in gas supply could lead to safety risks and high recovery costs for aluminum plants [2]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt both raw material imports and product exports, with the Middle East accounting for 9% of global aluminum production capacity by 2025. The region's reliance on external sources for alumina is 68% [2]. - The interruption of LNG supplies from Qatar, which contributes about 20% to global LNG, has caused European natural gas prices to spike by 60%, potentially leading to production halts in European aluminum plants due to energy shortages [3].