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欧市金银震荡 多空博弈待破局
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-13 07:04
Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market is experiencing intense competition with a delicate balance in price movements, as spot gold remains in narrow fluctuations during the Asian session despite previous rebounds [1] - Silver has seen a two-day increase, surpassing $38 and continuing to rise, while risk appetite is supported by easing US-China trade tensions and US-Russia negotiations regarding Ukraine [1][2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached historical closing highs, while Japan's Nikkei 225 index broke the 43,000-point mark, indicating a strong performance in risk assets that may diminish the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July remained unchanged at a year-on-year rate of 2.7%, while the core CPI rose from 2.9% in June to 3.1%, exceeding market expectations [2] - The CPI and core CPI recorded month-on-month growth of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, aligning with market forecasts, which alleviated concerns about rising trade costs leading to widespread inflation [2] - Market participants are pricing in expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, influenced by the recent economic data [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Spot gold is currently in a bearish consolidation phase, with significant resistance at the $3358 - $3360 range, and a potential upward movement towards $3380 and $3400 if this resistance is broken [4] - For silver, a rebound from the 200-hour simple moving average indicates a potential bullish opportunity, with targets set at $38.70, $39.00, and possibly $39.50, which is the highest level since February 2012 [5] - If silver fails to maintain above $38.00 and drops below $37.85, it may face increased selling pressure, potentially leading to a decline towards $37.00 and testing lower support levels [5]