（原标题：全线大涨！这一金属也火了 后市如何？） 部分上市公司的三季报也体现了行业经营境遇的好转。云铝股份三季报显示，公司前三季度实现营业总 收入为440.72亿元，较去年同报告期营业总收入增加48.86亿元，同比上涨12.47%。归母净利润为43.98 亿元，较去年同报告期归母净利润增加5.78亿元，同比上涨15.14%。经营活动现金净流入为69.77亿 元，较去年同报告期经营活动现金净流入增加14.04亿元，同比上涨25.19%。 据SMM调研，11月国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率震荡下滑，行业逐渐从旺季转向淡季，但消费表现 仍有韧性。 五矿期货认为，受中美贸易缓和、美联储降息预期等宏观利好推动，有色金属氛围持续偏暖。基本面 看，当前国内铝锭库存震荡去化，美国现货铝溢价维持高位，LME铝锭库存延续减少态势，且库存绝 对水平处于相对低位，叠加供应扰动、下游开工率偏稳，以及铜价上涨，铝价仍有进一步走强的可能。 2025年是有色金属投资大年，作为工业金属大户的电解铝也没有缺席。 12月5日，A股电解铝板块全线大涨。闽发铝业涨停，中孚实业、宏创控股、南山铝业等9只股票涨幅超 过5%。 机构认为，基于国内电解铝已经进 ...

01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 供应偏紧，铝价震荡走强 铝月报 2025/12/05 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） CONTENTS 目录 04 成本端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止11月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4422万吨（建成产能4578万吨），行业开工率月度环比维稳；11月电解铝 产量环比减少2.8%、同比增长1.5%，预计12月运行产能环比小幅增加，铝水比例预计延续小幅下滑。 ◆ 库存&现货：11月末铝锭现货库存录得59万吨，月环比下降1.5万吨。12月初库存增加。保税区库存录得6.1万吨，月环比下降0.7万吨。铝棒 库存合计14.4万吨，月环比下降0.9万吨。LME全球铝库存录得53.8万吨，环比减少1.6万吨，处于往年同期低位。11月末国内华东铝锭现货 贴水于期货35元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M贴水26美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：2025年10月中国原铝进口量为24.8万吨，环比增加1 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the Hong Kong stock market has shown significant growth since 2025, with the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 28.20% and 24.11% respectively [1] - It is expected that the Hong Kong stock market will continue to experience wide fluctuations in December, influenced by three main factors: the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts improving liquidity in Hong Kong stocks, the narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. leading to an appreciation of the Renminbi, and the clearer domestic "14th Five-Year Plan" which is expected to enhance the earnings outlook for listed companies in Hong Kong [1] - Looking ahead, 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year as the "14th Five-Year Plan" commences, with developments in new productivity sectors and easing U.S.-China trade tensions expected to support the resilience of the Hong Kong stock market, potentially leading to a "slow bull" market trend [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Index (930914), which selects 30 high dividend yield stocks from securities eligible for the Hong Kong Stock Connect, focusing on those with good liquidity and consistent dividend payments [1] - The index comprises stocks from various traditional high dividend sectors such as finance, energy, and industrials, aiming to reflect the overall performance of high dividend securities in the Hong Kong Stock Connect with stable dividend characteristics and relatively low market volatility [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent increase in spot gold prices, surpassing $4,100 per ounce, driven by expectations of the U.S. government shutdown ending and potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December [1][5][18] - Spot gold rose by 2.84% to $4,114.96 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 2.76% to $4,120.60 per ounce, indicating a strong upward trend in the gold market [1][18] - The article notes that the domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with rebar and iron ore prices slightly increasing, while coking coal and glass prices declined [1] Group 2 - In international news, the U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill aimed at ending a 40-day government shutdown, which may lead to the resumption of normal government data releases [5] - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on market liquidity and investor sentiment, suggesting that the resolution may alleviate some of the liquidity risks previously heightened by the shutdown [18] - The article also mentions the release of new policies by the State Council of China to promote private investment, which includes measures to encourage private capital participation in urban infrastructure projects [6] Group 3 - The article provides insights into the oil market, noting a 1.32% decline in SC night market prices, attributed to Saudi Arabia's significant reduction of official selling prices for crude oil to Asia in response to increased supply from OPEC+ producers [3][12] - The copper market is highlighted, with tight concentrate supply and high smelting output, while the overall demand remains weak due to sluggish performance in the real estate sector [3][19] - The article mentions the performance of the shipping industry, particularly the European shipping index, which saw a decline, indicating pressure on freight rates due to insufficient price increases from major shipping companies [2][30]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.53% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.18%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.92% [2] - A total of 3,376 stocks rose, with 92 hitting the daily limit up, while 1,957 stocks declined [3][4] - The total trading volume reached 21,943.71 billion, with a trading volume of 140,007.9 million [4] Consumer Sector Performance - The consumer sector experienced a collective surge, with nearly 20 stocks, including China Duty Free Group and Shede Spirits, hitting the daily limit up [5] - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October, marking a shift from decline to growth, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing year-on-year increase [5] Financial Sector Activity - Financial stocks, including Northeast Securities, saw significant gains, with Northeast Securities hitting the daily limit up [8] - Other notable financial stocks included GF Securities and Dongxing Securities, which rose by 3.74% and 3.10% respectively [8] Chemical Sector Trends - The chemical sector continued its strong performance, with companies like Luxi Chemical and Chengxing Chemical hitting the daily limit up [9] - Notable gainers included Dongyue Silicon Materials, which rose by 14.94%, and other chemical stocks showing increases around 10% [9] Storage Chip Sector Dynamics - The storage chip sector was notably active, with companies such as Dawi Co. and Wanrun Technology hitting the daily limit up [10] - Key performers included Shen Gong Co., which rose by 20%, and other stocks in the sector showing significant gains [10] Downward Adjustments - The robotics sector faced adjustments, with Zhejiang Rongtai hitting the daily limit down [11] - Other companies in the sector also experienced declines, indicating a potential correction phase [11] Global Market Influences - Positive global market sentiment was noted, with major Asian indices like the Seoul Composite Index rising over 3% and the Nikkei 225 Index increasing over 1% [11] - The U.S. market also showed signs of recovery, with pre-market indices trending upwards [13] Trade Relations Impact - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations, including the suspension of investigations into China's shipbuilding industry, contributed to market optimism [14][15] - The U.S. government nearing the end of a shutdown also provided a positive backdrop for market performance, with potential funding agreements being discussed [16]

Report Overview - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated and closed higher. The current 2025/26 annual cotton prices in Xinjiang are mostly between 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a net weight basis. The downstream demand is tepid but has some resilience, and the inventory pressure is not significant. With the Sino - US trade in a phased easing period, the export competitiveness of downstream textile and clothing enterprises may improve. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needs to be digested, and the trading center will mainly move up slowly in a fluctuating manner [7][8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and closed higher. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,825 yuan per metric ton, down 16 yuan per metric ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang and machine - picked cotton in northern Xinjiang were in the range of 14,600 - 14,800 yuan per metric ton on a net weight basis. The trading of pure cotton yarn was lukewarm, with high - count yarns selling better than low - count yarns. The production and sales in the grey fabric spot market were sluggish, with few large orders and difficult access to export orders [7] - **International Market**: The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again on November 4. The federal government's "shutdown" entered the 35th day, tying the longest record in history, and the USDA data has not been updated [8] - **Market Outlook**: The acquisition of Xinjiang seed cotton is gradually coming to an end, and the short - term driving force is weakening. Zhengzhou cotton faces hedging pressure at high prices, and some cotton merchants continue to lower the spot sales basis. The downstream terminal demand is tepid, but there is still some resilience in rigid demand, and the inventory of downstream finished products is not high. The Sino - US trade is in a phased easing period, and the export competitiveness may improve. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needs to be digested, and the trading center will mainly move up slowly in a fluctuating manner [8] 3.2 Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, a total of 1,018 cotton processing enterprises across the country have processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume was 9,218,299 bales, totaling 2.0819 million tons, an increase of 91,600 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 9,133,907 bales, totaling 2.063 million tons, an increase of 91,100 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland was 51,656 bales, totaling 11,500 tons [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads between different contracts, commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates [14][16][17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - For gold, the short - term view is to observe the 4000 - dollar mark's long - short game due to short - term pressure from a strong dollar index and a 10% high - level retracement, with a mid - term view of oscillation and a reference view of waiting and seeing [1][3] - For copper, the long - term view is positive, considering the tight supply situation after the price correction. The mid - term view is upward, and the short - term is to pay attention to overseas COMEX copper inventory and domestic policy implementation [1][4] 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price Situation**: Last week, the gold price dropped to $4000 and then oscillated, with the domestic Shanghai gold stabilizing around 900 yuan. The short - term gold price has retreated about 10% from its high [3] - **Driving Factors**: The short - term strengthening of the US dollar index has significantly pressured the gold price. After the October Fed meeting, the market's expectation of interest rate cuts decreased, leading to the continuous strengthening of the US dollar index [3] Copper - **Price Situation**: At the end of October, the main copper contract reached a record high of 89,000 yuan/ton and then declined. The price has fallen back to around the key support level of 85,000 yuan/ton [4] - **Driving Factors for the Correction**: - Macro - sentiment change: The previous macro - level positives such as Fed rate cuts and new Sino - US tariff agreements have been digested by the market, and the sentiment has returned to rationality [4] - US dollar strengthening: The rebound of the US dollar index has made copper more expensive for holders of other currencies, suppressing demand [4] - Technical pressure: After the price reached a record high, it triggered profit - taking by long - position holders [4] - **Future Outlook**: The tight supply situation has limited further price drops. It is necessary to continue to monitor overseas COMEX copper inventory and the implementation of domestic "anti - involution" policies [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are respectively "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with a reference view of "wait - and - see". The core logic is the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the Fed's hawkish stance. For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "rise", "rise", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with a reference view of "long - term bullish". The core logic is macro - economic easing, mine - end production cuts, and a rapid increase in capital attention [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **View**: Intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" [1][3]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, the gold price weakened again. The main contract price of Shanghai gold futures dropped from around 920 yuan to below 910 yuan. The short - term strengthening of the US dollar index has significantly pressured the gold price. After the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts decreased, leading to a continuous strengthening of the US dollar index. The New York gold price fell below $4000 again, and the technical support at $3900 can be continuously monitored [3]. Copper (CU) - **View**: Intraday view is "oscillation with a slight upward bias", medium - term view is "rise", and the reference view is "long - term bullish" [1][4]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, the domestic macro - economic situation weakened, and the copper price decreased significantly with a reduction in positions. Short - term bulls had a strong willingness to close their positions. Overseas, after the Fed's October interest - rate meeting, LME copper prices dropped significantly. The Fed's hawkish stance and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations led to a rebound in the US dollar index, which is negative for the copper price. In addition, the copper price has risen significantly since late September and is facing pressure at historical highs in the short term, so bulls have a strong willingness to close their positions. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the support at the 85,000 - yuan mark [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices first declined and then rose today. In the afternoon, the domestic macro - atmosphere improved, and the non - ferrous sector as a whole went up. On the industrial level, electrolytic copper slightly increased in inventory on Monday. The short - term main contract price of Shanghai copper has rebounded from the 10 - day moving average for two consecutive days. Continuously monitor the technical support at this position [4]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices significantly increased with rising positions today, especially in the afternoon. The main contract price closed above the 20,600 yuan mark at the end of the session. Aluminum is relatively more affected by the domestic macro situation. Recently, the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the increasing expectation of anti - involution in China are beneficial to aluminum prices. On the industrial level, electrolytic aluminum slightly increased in inventory on Monday. Technically, pay attention to the high - level pressure in November 2024 [5]. - **Nickel**: The main contract price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated around 121,000 yuan today. The upward movement of the non - ferrous sector in the afternoon had little impact on nickel. The weakness on the industrial level makes funds more inclined to short - allocate nickel to hedge long positions in non - ferrous metals. Technically, pay attention to the high - level pressure in late October [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 3, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 203,000 tons, an increase of 13,800 tons from last Thursday. Affected by the sharp rise in copper prices last week, the supply of recycled copper raw materials increased, the spread between refined and scrap copper widened, leading to an increase in the output of scrap - produced anode copper smelting enterprises. The average processing fee of anode plates increased by 350 yuan/ton to 750 yuan/ton [8]. - **Aluminum**: On November 3, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 614,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last Thursday [9]. - **Nickel**: On November 3, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 120,500 - 123,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,000 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,600 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton increase from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [11][12][13]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum average price and premium, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), aluminum bar inventory, etc [23][24][26]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [35][37][38].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to gradually stabilize and enter a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities by buying on dips after stabilization [6]. - Medium - to long - term, due to factors such as the Fed remaining in the interest - rate cut cycle, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition increasing dollar credit risk, and continued gold purchases by global central banks, the medium - to long - term center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue rising. Long - term investors are advised to allocate on dips [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On October 31, 2025, compared with October 30, 2025, London gold spot rose 0.9%, London silver spot rose 2.6%, COMEX gold rose 0.9%, COMEX silver rose 2.1%, AU2512 rose 1.1%, AG2512 rose 1.7%, AU (T + D) rose 1.1%, and AG (T + D) rose 1.6% [5]. - Regarding price spreads/ratios, from October 30 to 31, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by 4.5%, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread increased by 16.3%, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) increased by 33.8%, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) increased by 12.9%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.6%, the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 1.2%, AU2602 - 2512 increased by 10.1%, and AG2602 - 2512 increased by 4.2% [5]. 2. Position Data - From October 30 to 31, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.11%, the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 1.85%, COMEX gold non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43%, COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions increased by 0.13%, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 0.97%, COMEX silver non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21%, and COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions increased by 1.43% [5]. 3. Inventory Data - From October 30 to 31, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.41%, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.20%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.14% [5]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - From October 30 to 31, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.02%, the US dollar index increased by 0.19%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.28%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the VIX increased by 3.13%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.26%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.98% [5]. 5. Market Review - On October 31, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.27% to 921.92 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.41% to 11441 yuan/kilogram [5]. 6. Analysis and Short - Term Outlook - The decline in market risk appetite, the ongoing US government shutdown, and the intensification of local geopolitical situations have led to a recovery in safe - haven demand, boosting the stabilization and rebound of precious metal prices. Although Fed Chairman Powell said a December interest - rate cut is far from certain, the market still generally predicts it as the baseline scenario, providing support for the precious metal market. However, due to factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the strong performance of the US dollar index, the internal differences among Fed officials, and the marginal easing of the US government shutdown, the short - term upward space for a unilateral trend in precious metals may be relatively limited [6]. 7. Medium - to Long - Term Outlook - In the medium to long term, factors such as the Fed remaining in the interest - rate cut cycle, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, unsustainable US debt, and intensified great - power competition increasing dollar credit risk, and continued gold purchases by global central banks will likely cause the medium - to long - term center of gravity of gold prices to continue rising [6].