现货黄金（伦敦金）： 全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓较上日维持不变，当前持仓量为979.68吨。尽管就业数据下修 进一步提高了美联储9月降息预期，但是恐慌引起的资产抛售使得黄金快速冲高回落。中长期继续看好 贵金属走势的同时，短期建议关注特朗普对美国劳工统计局的干预措施。 美联储的降息节奏仍存不确定性，尽管其目标中性政策利率水平已相对明确。他预计，美联储可能会在 明年以25个基点的幅度逐步降息，直至利率降至预期的3.0%至3.5%区间。这种循序渐进的做法将为美 联储留出时间，评估关税对通胀、劳动力供给以及财政政策效果的影响。他补充说，通胀很可能在2026 年仍保持在3%以上。 【技术分析】 摘要9月10日欧洲交易时段，贵金属大幅分化，金价飙升至纪录新高，白银走势滞后，偏向看跌，铂金 测试关键支撑位。美联储政策预期和美国通胀数据仍是近期价格走势的核心驱动因素。金价飙升至 3,674.70美元/盎司历史新高，因交易员预计美联储本月降息的可能性为92%。银价在41.67美元下方挣 扎，尽管预计美联储立场鸽派，但白银受到工业信心疲弱的拖累。铂金从1,438.30美元回落，目前正在 测试50日移 ...

在8月28日的欧洲交易时段，金价陷入负值区间展开交投。彼时，受美元强势反弹以及部分获利盘回吐 的双重影响，贵金属价格自三周以来约3400美元的高位有所回落。与此同时，因美国总统唐纳德·特朗 普以抵押贷款存在不当行为为由罢免了美联储理事丽莎·库克，市场对美联储独立性的隐忧持续萦绕。 而这一状况恰恰为金价提供了支撑——黄金作为传统避险资产的属性在此得以彰显。另外，尽管白银未 能守住每盎司40美元以上的涨幅，但有基金经理指出，该贵金属展现出不容小觑的上涨动能，未来或将 推动银价重返2011年创下的历史高位。 【要闻速递】 现货黄金（伦敦金）： 金价当天失去动力。贵金属的积极前景仍然完好无损，价格在日线图上关键的 100 日指数移动平均线 （EMA） 上方得到良好支撑。14 天相对强弱指数 （RSI） 位于 56.55 附近的中线上方，表明短期内进 一步上涨看起来有利。黄金的直接阻力位出现在布林带的上限 3,410 美元。果断突破该水平可能会为 7 月 23 日的高点 3,439 美元铺平道路。再往北，下一个障碍在 3,500 美元，即心理水平和 4 月 22 日的高 点。另一方面，XAU/USD 的初始支撑位位于 ...

摘要8月14日欧洲交易时段，黄金市场激战正酣，多空博弈激烈，黄金价格走势扑朔迷离却维持微妙平 衡。现货黄金未借前日反弹契机，于亚洲时段窄幅震荡；白银连涨两日，突破38美元后持续上扬。中美 贸易缓和、美俄斡旋乌局等利好提振风险偏好，抑制贵金属避险需求... 【技术分析】 8月14日欧洲交易时段，现货黄金涨势遇阻，于3375美元附近三日高点遭日内抛盘打压，现报3358.52美 元/盎司；白银续涨，交投于38.58美元/盎司，涨约0.28%，近两周高点在望。中美贸易乐观预期与美俄 峰会积极信号提振风险情绪，压制贵金属，但多重支撑仍存，利好看涨及逢低买入。 现货黄金（伦敦金）：黄金亚盘时段高点（约3375美元区域）可能构成近期阻力位，若突破该水平，金 价或有望上探3400美元整数关口。紧随其后的是上周波动高点3409-3410美元区域，有效突破后将为进 一步上探3422-3423美元中间阻力位奠定基础。最终，上涨动能或推动金价突破3434-3435美元区域，进 而挑战4月触及的3500美元心理关口历史峰值。下行方面，若金价跌破3243-3242美元区域（4小时图200 周期均线）支撑，可能在3331美元（即本周低点） ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market is experiencing intense competition with a delicate balance in price movements, as spot gold remains in narrow fluctuations during the Asian session despite previous rebounds [1] - Silver has seen a two-day increase, surpassing $38 and continuing to rise, while risk appetite is supported by easing US-China trade tensions and US-Russia negotiations regarding Ukraine [1][2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached historical closing highs, while Japan's Nikkei 225 index broke the 43,000-point mark, indicating a strong performance in risk assets that may diminish the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July remained unchanged at a year-on-year rate of 2.7%, while the core CPI rose from 2.9% in June to 3.1%, exceeding market expectations [2] - The CPI and core CPI recorded month-on-month growth of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, aligning with market forecasts, which alleviated concerns about rising trade costs leading to widespread inflation [2] - Market participants are pricing in expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, influenced by the recent economic data [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Spot gold is currently in a bearish consolidation phase, with significant resistance at the $3358 - $3360 range, and a potential upward movement towards $3380 and $3400 if this resistance is broken [4] - For silver, a rebound from the 200-hour simple moving average indicates a potential bullish opportunity, with targets set at $38.70, $39.00, and possibly $39.50, which is the highest level since February 2012 [5] - If silver fails to maintain above $38.00 and drops below $37.85, it may face increased selling pressure, potentially leading to a decline towards $37.00 and testing lower support levels [5]

与Christopher Waller同为美联储理事的Michelle Bowman（也是由特朗普任命），在6月底表示，她认为 降息最早应该在本月恢复。但纽约联储John Williams和波士顿联储Susan Collins都表示，今年通胀率仍 可能进一步上升，因此他们敦促谨慎行事。 【技术分析】 现货黄金（伦敦金）：布林带开口扩大，金价在布林带上轨附近运行，MACD 技术指标金叉运行红柱 放量中，RSI 技术指标超买回落在 66-55 区间运行，中性偏强，金价多头动能依旧强势；布林带开口扩 张，金价受布林带下轨支撑一路高歌，目前受上轨*运行中；MACD 技术指标金叉红柱收量运行中， RSI 技术指标超买回落至 67-60 区间运行，金价回落下跌动能明显，后市关注 3310 支撑与 3400 阻力； 布林带开口收窄，金价在布林带中轨附近运行中，短期空头下跌需求有所加强；MACD 技术指标死叉 绿柱放量运行中，RSI 指标超买回落在 58-37 区间运行，短线超买回落，空头下跌需求明显，下方支撑 3320，上方阻力 3400。 现货白银（伦敦银）：在最终突破38.00美元和38.50美元之后，白银似乎准备挑战 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals market showed significant divergence, with gold prices dropping from $3330 to a low of $3310 due to a stronger dollar and reduced rate cut expectations [1] - Silver, on the other hand, increased by 0.55% but faced resistance at the $38 level [1] - Despite strong economic data and rising U.S. stock markets, global economic weakness continues to provide support for precious metals [1] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policy and Economic Impact - The Trump administration's tariff policy is a focal point, with Japan negotiating to avoid a 25% tariff, which will take effect if no agreement is reached by August 1 [2] - June import prices rose by only 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, indicating that foreign exporters have not fully absorbed tariff costs [2] - The increase in import prices suggests a direct impact of tariffs on prices, potentially raising inflation expectations further [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold - Current short-term support for gold is at $3337, with other indicators showing a bullish arrangement, although the overall trend appears to be downward [3] - Key support is noted around $3320, with strong support at the $3300 level if prices drop further [3] - Resistance levels to watch include $3358-$3360, with a breakthrough potentially leading to testing $3377 [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver prices are currently consolidating around the $38 level, with a daily close above this level opening the door for upward recovery [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that buyers are in control, but a flat RSI slope suggests a lack of catalysts for establishing new positions [4] - For a bullish outlook, silver must break above $38.50, with subsequent targets at $39.00, $39.50, and $40.00 [4]