2月18日，消息面: 美元连续第二个交易日小幅上涨，完全无视了市场定价所暗示的今年美联储将降息 约三次的预期。美元近期的看跌情绪有所缓解，所谓的前端风险逆转指标已降至近一个月来的最低负值 水平。货币市场目前仍预期美联储年底前将降息约64个基点。部分策略师认为此预期过度，因三次降息 可能超出数据支撑的合理范围，这将使市场面临美元反弹的风险。布朗兄弟哈里曼公司市场策略全球主 管Elias Haddad表示："美联储降息的预期似乎有些过度了，这为美元短期内的走强提供了调整空 间。"他指出，经济增长态势良好，且通胀水平一直维持在高于美联储2%目标的水平之上。关注周四凌 晨的美联储会议纪要。 现货黄金（伦敦金）：技术面上来看昨日日线收了一根小阴柱，布林带缩口，价格即将选择新的方向， KDJ指标欲形成死叉，MACD快线处于慢线下方且绿色能量柱逐渐发散。目前来看大趋势仍旧偏上，中 线阶段性下行。短线4小时图中来看，布林带开口，KDJ指标死叉放量，MACD快慢线相互缠绕。小时 图中来看，布林带开口，KDJ指标欲形成金叉，MACD快线处于慢线下方且绿色能量柱逐渐发散。短线 价格如期回调，目前短线继续关注回调情况，下方支撑关注4 ...

2月5日， 消息面：美国1月ADP就业增长甚至不及经济学家最低预估，凸显出劳动力市场延续降温，与 鲍威尔此前的企稳言论相悖，ADP报告是更受关注的劳工统计局（BLS）非农就业报告的前瞻指标，后 者原定于本周五发布。尽管持续性拨款决议已经生效后，美国劳工部宣布自2026年2月4日（星期三）起 所有机构均已恢复正常全面运作，但由于此前决议未通过导致美国政府部分停摆，美国劳工部已宣布推 迟公布1月非农报告，将于恢复运营后另行公布非农报告的发布时间。 现货黄金（伦敦金）：技术面上来看昨日日线收了一根大阳柱，布林带欲缩口，KDJ指标死叉放量欲拐 角形成金叉，MACD死叉放量，目前来看大趋势仍旧偏上，中线阶段性上行，这也是我们这段时间一直 坚持的思路。短线4小时图中来看，布林带缩口，价格即将选择新的方向，KDJ指标死叉放量，MACD 快线处于慢线上方但红色能量柱逐渐收敛。小时图中来看，布林带开口，KDJ指标死叉放量，MACD快 线处于慢线下方且绿色能量柱逐渐发散。短线价格如期回调，目前短线继续关注回调情况，下方支撑关 注4888/4809/4750一线，上方压力关注4988/5098/5240一线。 沪金：上方关注112 ...

Group 1: U.S. Economic Data Interpretation - U.S. CPI data exceeded expectations, with August's adjusted monthly CPI at 0.4%, the highest since January, and annual CPI at 2.9%, up from 2.7% [1] - Initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, the highest since October 2021, indicating a potential weakening in the U.S. job market [1] Group 2: Major Asset Price Trends - Gold prices rebounded after initial declines, closing at $3633.75 per ounce, while silver showed stronger performance with a 0.96% increase [2] - The U.S. dollar index fell to 97.47, supporting the rebound in precious metals, while U.S. Treasury yields reflected cautious economic outlook [2] Group 3: Energy Market - International oil prices declined, with WTI crude down 2.28% to $61.73 per barrel, amid concerns over demand [3] Group 4: Global Policy Movements and Market Events - The European Central Bank maintained interest rates at 2%, adjusting inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating short-term inflation pressures [5] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates by 25 basis points in September, influenced by rising jobless claims and stable core PCE inflation [6] Group 5: International Trade and Economic Cooperation - The U.S. and Japan agreed to enhance economic cooperation and maintain discussions on macroeconomic and foreign exchange market dynamics [7] - Switzerland is exploring options to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on its gold industry by potentially establishing local processing facilities [8]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - Gold prices surged to a record high of $3,674.70 per ounce, driven by a 92% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month [1] - Silver struggled below $41.67, showing a bearish trend due to weak industrial confidence, despite expectations of a dovish Fed stance [1] - Platinum fell from $1,438.30 and is currently testing a key support level at $1,367.60, near the 50-day moving average [1] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls were revised down by 911,000 for the year ending in March, averaging a decrease of nearly 76,000 jobs per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2000 [2] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, maintained its holdings at 979.68 tons, indicating stable demand despite market volatility [2] - The Fed's rate cut pace remains uncertain, with expectations of gradual cuts of 25 basis points until rates reach a target range of 3.0% to 3.5% [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Precious Metals - The spot gold price has rebounded, having previously accumulated gains and absorbed an overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) [3] - Silver is consolidating below the key resistance level of $41.67, with potential upward movement towards $44.22 if it closes above this level [4] - The recent support levels for silver are at $40.40 and $39.88, while the gold-silver ratio continues to rise, confirming gold's leading position [4]

Core Insights - Gold prices fell into negative territory during European trading on August 28, influenced by a strong rebound in the dollar and profit-taking, retreating from a high of approximately $3,400 over the past three weeks [1] - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Donald Trump raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which provided support for gold prices as a traditional safe-haven asset [1] - Despite silver failing to maintain gains above $40 per ounce, some fund managers noted its significant upward momentum, suggesting a potential return to historical highs set in 2011 [1] Economic Indicators - Traders are awaiting the second estimate of U.S. GDP, with expectations of a 3.1% annual growth rate for Q2, which could impact the dollar and commodity prices [2] - Attention will shift to U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for clues on interest rate cuts [2] Market Sentiment - Analysts expressed strong interest in gold due to issues surrounding institutional trust and potential risks to the Federal Reserve's independence [2] - The New York Fed President emphasized the importance of central bank independence amid Trump's intervention in monetary policy [2] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting are nearly 87% [3] - If PCE data does not reflect strong inflation, doubts may arise regarding the Fed's ability to implement rate cuts in September [3] Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold prices lost momentum but remain supported above the 100-day EMA, with a resistance level at $3,410 [3] - A decisive breakout above this level could pave the way for a target of $3,439, while initial support is at $3,351 [3] Technical Analysis - Silver - Silver prices faced pressure after failing to sustain a breakout above a symmetrical triangle pattern, with key support around $38.13 [4] - A breakdown below this support could invalidate recent bullish momentum, while resistance levels are at $38.63 and $39.06 [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - The gold market is experiencing intense competition with a delicate balance in price movements, as spot gold struggles to maintain upward momentum around $3,375, facing selling pressure [1] - Optimistic expectations regarding US-China trade relations and positive signals from US-Russia discussions are boosting risk appetite, which in turn suppresses safe-haven demand for precious metals [1] Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Silver prices continue to rise, trading at $38.58 per ounce, with a gain of approximately 0.28%, approaching recent highs [1] - The silver market is showing strong momentum, with potential targets at $39.00 and historical highs of $39.53, while a break below $38.00 could pressure bullish positions [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - US Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rates should be 150-175 basis points lower, indicating a potential for a 50 basis point cut starting in September [2] - There is skepticism among analysts regarding the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in September, with the need for a weak non-farm payroll report to support such a move [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent high of approximately $3,375 may act as a resistance level for gold, with potential upward targets at $3,400 and further resistance at $3,409-$3,410 [3] - If gold prices fall below the support level of $3,242, it may lead to further declines towards the $3,300 mark, indicating a shift towards a bearish outlook [3] Group 5: Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver prices have reached a three-week high of $38.65, with buyers clearing previous resistance levels and eyeing a test of $40.00 [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates bullish momentum, but there is a risk of divergence in the MACD, which could lead to a decline if prices fall below $38.00 [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market is experiencing intense competition with a delicate balance in price movements, as spot gold remains in narrow fluctuations during the Asian session despite previous rebounds [1] - Silver has seen a two-day increase, surpassing $38 and continuing to rise, while risk appetite is supported by easing US-China trade tensions and US-Russia negotiations regarding Ukraine [1][2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached historical closing highs, while Japan's Nikkei 225 index broke the 43,000-point mark, indicating a strong performance in risk assets that may diminish the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets like gold [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July remained unchanged at a year-on-year rate of 2.7%, while the core CPI rose from 2.9% in June to 3.1%, exceeding market expectations [2] - The CPI and core CPI recorded month-on-month growth of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, aligning with market forecasts, which alleviated concerns about rising trade costs leading to widespread inflation [2] - Market participants are pricing in expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, influenced by the recent economic data [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Spot gold is currently in a bearish consolidation phase, with significant resistance at the $3358 - $3360 range, and a potential upward movement towards $3380 and $3400 if this resistance is broken [4] - For silver, a rebound from the 200-hour simple moving average indicates a potential bullish opportunity, with targets set at $38.70, $39.00, and possibly $39.50, which is the highest level since February 2012 [5] - If silver fails to maintain above $38.00 and drops below $37.85, it may face increased selling pressure, potentially leading to a decline towards $37.00 and testing lower support levels [5]

Group 1 - The precious metals market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with spot gold prices reaching a one-month high of $3403 before retreating to around $3386.33 per ounce, while spot silver has increased by 1.0% to $38.55, marking a 14-year high [1] - Nearly 60% of the annual demand for silver comes from industrial uses, highlighting its importance beyond investment [1] - The weakening US dollar index and declining US Treasury yields have provided strong support for the precious metals market, driving significant price increases for both gold and silver [1] Group 2 - The EU is exploring countermeasures against US tariffs while prioritizing negotiations, and Indonesia's 19% tariff may take effect on August 1, creating uncertainty that boosts safe-haven demand for precious metals [2] - The political climate in the US, including calls for criminal charges against Federal Reserve officials and scrutiny of the Fed's operations, raises concerns about policy credibility and market volatility, enhancing the safe-haven appeal of precious metals [2] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that interest rate cuts should be considered if inflation data is low, which could influence market expectations regarding interest rates and provide financial support for precious metals [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis for spot gold indicates a bullish trend, with prices operating near the upper Bollinger Band and MACD indicators showing a bullish crossover, suggesting strong upward momentum [3] - Spot silver is poised to challenge its annual high of $39.12 after breaking through key resistance levels, with bullish momentum indicated by the RSI, although it remains below extreme levels [4]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals market showed significant divergence, with gold prices dropping from $3330 to a low of $3310 due to a stronger dollar and reduced rate cut expectations [1] - Silver, on the other hand, increased by 0.55% but faced resistance at the $38 level [1] - Despite strong economic data and rising U.S. stock markets, global economic weakness continues to provide support for precious metals [1] Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policy and Economic Impact - The Trump administration's tariff policy is a focal point, with Japan negotiating to avoid a 25% tariff, which will take effect if no agreement is reached by August 1 [2] - June import prices rose by only 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, indicating that foreign exporters have not fully absorbed tariff costs [2] - The increase in import prices suggests a direct impact of tariffs on prices, potentially raising inflation expectations further [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold - Current short-term support for gold is at $3337, with other indicators showing a bullish arrangement, although the overall trend appears to be downward [3] - Key support is noted around $3320, with strong support at the $3300 level if prices drop further [3] - Resistance levels to watch include $3358-$3360, with a breakthrough potentially leading to testing $3377 [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver prices are currently consolidating around the $38 level, with a daily close above this level opening the door for upward recovery [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that buyers are in control, but a flat RSI slope suggests a lack of catalysts for establishing new positions [4] - For a bullish outlook, silver must break above $38.50, with subsequent targets at $39.00, $39.50, and $40.00 [4]