Core Viewpoint - The TBAC committee has submitted materials to the Treasury Department regarding stablecoins, addressing their impact on Treasury demand, dollar hegemony, the expansion of dollar-backed payment stablecoins, and potential effects on deposit-holding institutions [2][10]. Group 1: Development of the Stablecoin Market - Stablecoins are digital assets designed to maintain price stability by anchoring their value to reserve assets like fiat currencies [3][12]. - The stablecoin market has evolved rapidly, driven by institutional interest, regulatory frameworks, and broader on-chain applications, experiencing significant events over the past four years, including the collapse of Terra (UST) in May 2022 and the regional bank crisis in March 2023 [3][20]. - The market is projected to reach a valuation of approximately $2 trillion by 2028, influenced by evolving market dynamics and incentive mechanisms [28]. Group 2: Legislative Framework for Stablecoins - The GENIUS Act, passed by the U.S. Senate in 2025, aims to establish the first federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins, significantly impacting the future of dollar-pegged stablecoins [4][31]. - Key provisions of the GENIUS Act include defining stablecoins, reserve requirements, disclosure and auditing mandates, and consumer protection measures [35]. Group 3: Impact on Bank Deposits - The design of stablecoins will determine their potential impact on bank deposit flows, with non-interest-bearing stablecoins likely leading to a shift towards tokenized money market funds for yield capture [5][37]. - If stablecoins offer interest, they may attract funds from traditional deposits, enhancing their global appeal, especially among existing on-chain holders [5][37]. Group 4: Impact on U.S. Treasury Market - Stablecoin issuers currently hold over $120 billion in short-term U.S. Treasury bills, with projected incremental demand for U.S. Treasuries reaching approximately $900 billion by 2028 due to stablecoin growth [6][43]. - The transition of funds from bank deposits to stablecoins may lead to increased demand for U.S. Treasuries, potentially exacerbated by trust crises or de-pegging events [6][43]. Group 5: Impact on Money Supply - The growth of stablecoins may catalyze a shift of funds from traditional bank deposits to stablecoins, influencing the movement of money from M1/M2 to stablecoins without significantly altering the total money supply [7][49]. Group 6: Market Structure Implications - Historical de-pegging events have highlighted the need for more robust market access mechanisms for stablecoin issuers, akin to banking regulations [8][52]. - The GENIUS Act's stringent reserve requirements aim to prevent "breaking the buck" scenarios, drawing lessons from past money market fund reforms [8][53].