美联储在2026年面临六大关键挑战，从独立性到货币政策框架改革，这些问题将深刻影响全球金融市场 走向和投资者预期。 市场对下任美联储主席的关注持续升温，但这只是美联储今年面临的诸多挑战之一。政治干预、利率调 整空间、资产负债表规模、银行监管改革、稳定币监管以及货币政策框架等六大议题，都将考验这家全 球最具影响力央行的决策能力。 这些议题具有系统性影响。若政治压力侵蚀市场对美联储抗通胀承诺的信心，可能引发严重的预期脱锚 与波动；同时，美联储在利率政策、资产负债表管理等技术性问题上的选择，也将直接影响市场波动性 和金融稳定。 美联储主席鲍威尔此前表示，经过去年三次25个基点的降息后，货币政策现已处于"中性利率的合理估 计区间内"。然而，新任主席如何在政治压力下保持决策独立性，并在多重挑战中推进协调一致的政策 与监管改革，将成为贯穿全年的核心观察主线。 政治独立性面临考验 特朗普试图影响利率走向的举动，正对美联储的独立性构成实质威胁。即使下任美联储主席愿意按照特 朗普的偏好进一步降息，这一政策路径也远非确定。主席必须获得联邦公开市场委员会支持，否则将面 临信誉受损与市场沟通失效的风险。事实上，在FOMC成员、美联储 ...

Core Insights - The year 2025 is marked as a pivotal yet tumultuous period for the global stablecoin industry, with significant developments anticipated as 2026 approaches [2] Legislative Developments in the U.S. - Following Trump's re-election, the stablecoin market is expected to flourish due to his favorable stance on cryptocurrencies [3] - The introduction of the GENIUS Act in February 2025, aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, received bipartisan support and was passed by the Senate Banking Committee [4] - The signing of the GENIUS Act on July 18, 2025, represents the first federal-level regulation of stablecoins in the U.S., alongside the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and the Anti-CBDC Act, which collectively aim to bolster the dollar's status as the global reserve currency [4] - As of mid-2025, over 99% of the stablecoin market capitalization is attributed to dollar-pegged stablecoins, with USDT and USDC holding nearly 70% of their reserves in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds [4] Industry Reactions and Concerns - The implementation of the GENIUS Act has faced opposition from various banking groups, which have expressed concerns over provisions that could grant competitive advantages to certain institutions [5][6] - The Federal Reserve is exploring reforms to financial accounts to accommodate new business models, including a proposal for a "payment account" to facilitate direct access to the Fed's core payment systems for fintech companies and stablecoin issuers [7] Hong Kong's Legislative Approach - Hong Kong has taken proactive steps by passing the Stablecoin Bill on May 21, 2025, establishing a licensing regime for stablecoin issuers and enhancing regulatory frameworks for virtual asset activities [8] - Despite initial interest, the number of stablecoin license applications in Hong Kong has decreased significantly, indicating potential regulatory hurdles and a cautious approach from the authorities [9] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has clarified misconceptions regarding the licensing process and has faced challenges in aligning its regulations with market expectations [10] China's Regulatory Stance - China's regulatory framework for stablecoins remains largely unchanged since the 2021 directive prohibiting virtual currency trading, despite increased interest in stablecoins due to developments in the U.S. and Hong Kong [12][17] - The People's Bank of China has emphasized its commitment to combating illegal activities related to stablecoins while monitoring global developments [17] - The ongoing discussions around stablecoins in China have led to a cautious approach, with regulatory bodies maintaining a focus on preventing risks associated with virtual currencies [17] Global Trends and Market Dynamics - The global stablecoin market is characterized by a significant dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins, which account for over 99% of the market, raising concerns among other nations about the implications for their currencies [19][20] - The European Union's MiCA regulation, effective December 30, 2024, aims to address the challenges posed by the dominance of dollar stablecoins, although its impact on euro stablecoins has been limited [20] - Japan has approved its first yen-pegged stablecoin, JPYC, but market acceptance has been slow, highlighting the challenges in establishing a robust stablecoin ecosystem [21][22] - The UK is actively developing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, with a focus on ensuring that a significant portion of reserves is held in short-term government bonds [23][24] Market Integration and Future Outlook - The stablecoin market is witnessing increased recognition from capital markets, with major financial institutions engaging in acquisitions and partnerships to enhance their presence in the space [25] - The integration of Web2 and Web3 is accelerating, as traditional payment systems begin to incorporate stablecoin functionalities, indicating a shift towards a more hybrid financial ecosystem [25] - Ongoing infrastructure developments, such as Stripe's launch of stablecoin projects, reflect the competitive landscape between traditional financial entities and emerging blockchain technologies [26]

Core Insights - South Korea's stablecoin regulations have been postponed until 2026, delaying the implementation of the Digital Asset Basic Act, which is part of a broader digital asset framework [1][7] Regulatory Framework - The Digital Asset Basic Act aims to establish rules for stablecoin issuance, including licensing, reserve management, and investor protections, building on the Virtual Asset User Protection Act enacted in 2023-2024 [2] - The proposed bill mandates that stablecoin issuers hold 100% reserves in safe assets, such as bank deposits or government bonds, with full custody by banks [6][7] Regulatory Deadlock - The primary cause of the delay is a deadlock between the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and the Bank of Korea (BOK), with the FSC advocating for a flexible approach to foster innovation, while the BOK emphasizes financial stability and stricter controls [3][7] - The BOK insists that stablecoin issuers operate as consortia with banks holding at least 51% ownership, citing the need for supervision and anti-money-laundering controls [4] - Disagreements extend to reserve requirements, enforcement authority, supervisory jurisdiction, and the permissibility of interest-bearing stablecoins [5] Industry Impact - The delay in regulations risks slower growth in the crypto sector amid the dominance of foreign stablecoins, although private sector activity continues, with major banks exploring consortia for won-pegged stablecoins targeting launches in 2026 [7][8]

美国银行（Bank of America）在最新报告中表示，随着美国稳定币与银行牌照监管加速落地，美国银行 体系正迈向一个为期多年的"上链未来"。报告指出，OCC 已向 5 家数字资产公司有条件发放国家信托 银行牌照，标志着稳定币与加密托管正式被纳入受监管银行体系。美国银行预计，FDIC 与美联储将依 据《GENIUS 法案》进一步推出稳定币资本、流动性及审批规则，相关监管预计最迟于 2027 年生效。 （CoinDesk） 来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is supported by strong domestic exports and a weakening US dollar index, indicating a robust fundamental backing for the currency's strength [2][4][6]. Group 1: RMB Appreciation Factors - The RMB has appreciated by 1000 basis points this year, reaching a nearly one-year high, primarily due to a 6.2% year-on-year increase in exports over the first ten months [2][4]. - The resilience of the RMB is attributed to the stability of China's supply chain and the ongoing positive impact of foreign trade on the economy [4][6]. - The weakening of the US dollar, driven by policy uncertainties in the US, has also contributed to the RMB's appreciation, as global capital preferences shift away from dollar-denominated assets [6][8]. Group 2: Short-term vs Long-term Outlook - In the short term, the RMB may experience volatility influenced by capital flows and market sentiment, with potential for periodic corrections [10]. - Over the long term, the RMB is expected to appreciate further, potentially breaking the 7 mark against the dollar, driven by valuation differences between US and Chinese assets [12][14]. - The attractiveness of Chinese financial assets and the ongoing economic recovery in China are likely to support this long-term appreciation trend [14]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment for Stablecoins - Recent regulatory measures have tightened oversight on stablecoins, with the central bank emphasizing the prohibition of virtual currency trading to prevent financial risks [20][22]. - The focus of regulation includes preventing money laundering and maintaining currency sovereignty, ensuring that the stability of the RMB is not compromised by virtual currency transactions [22][24]. - The regulatory approach suggests a potential for controlled experimentation with stablecoins in specific applications, while speculative activities will face strict limitations [24][26].

·经合组织：发达经济体宽松空间接近枯竭美联储或仅剩两次降息 ·最新通胀数据为美联储12月降息再开绿灯 ·美联储副主席鲍曼：监管机构将制定稳定币规则 ·日本央行加息声响起 ·欧洲央行要求意大利政府重新审视黄金储备提案 ·英国央行警告AI投资热潮或引发金融风险 ·印度央行将基准利率下调25个基点至5.25% ·波兰央行下调基准利率至4.00% 【全球央行动态】 ·根据经济合作与发展组织（OECD）最新预测，发达经济体将在2026年底前结束当前的降息周期。经合 组织将2025年美国经济增速预期从1.8%上调至2%，将2026年预期从1.5%上调至1.7%；预计美联储将在 2026年底前"逐步"将关键利率下调至3.25%至3.5%。 ·最新通胀数据为美联储12月降息再开绿灯。美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%； 9月实际个人消费支出环比意外持平，前值由上涨0.4%下修为0.2%；12月密歇根大学一年期通胀预期降 至4.1%，创今年1月以来最低。美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈西特表示，现在是美联储"谨慎降息"的 好时机，并且他预计美联储将在本周采取行动。 ·美联储最高银行业监管官员鲍曼在国会证词 ...

在上个月28日，中国人民银行突然召开高规格虚拟货币监管协调会议。 这次会议不一般，来了14个部门的负责人，阵容强大得让人有点意外。 这种级别的联合行动，在虚拟货币监管史上还真不多见。 监管升级，十四部门联手织密防护网 这次会议的背景其实不复杂，最近虚拟货币市场又开始活跃，各种地下交易渠道换着花样出现。 就像去年破的那个12亿USDT洗钱案，要是搁以前，单靠一个部门还真未必能这么快破案。 技术手段也跟上了，听说现在有了专门的区块链溯源系统，虚拟货币的流向能追到小数点后八位。 这种分工协作，比之前单打独斗效率高多了。 有个做技术的哥们透露，他们开发的监测平台，连暗网的交易信息都能扒下来一些。 不过这活儿也挺难，那些搞投机的人，反侦察能力比想象中强。 有朋友在金融圈工作，他跟我说，现在场外交易搞得跟谍战片似的，微信转账加线下见面，隐蔽性特别强。 十四部门联手可不是简单凑数，央行管总协调，公安部负责打击犯罪，网信办盯着网络平台，外汇局严防资金外流。 数字人民币的推进也给监管加了码，本来想，虚拟货币和数字人民币都是数字形式，应该差不多吧？后来发现完全不是一回事。 数字人民币背后是国家信用，虚拟货币说白了就是一串代码。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and multiple departments have publicly defined stablecoins as a form of virtual currency that does not hold the same legal status as fiat currency, emphasizing that they should not circulate in the market as money [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The PBOC's recent meeting highlighted the risks associated with stablecoins, including their potential use in money laundering and illegal fundraising activities [1][2]. - The meeting called for enhanced collaboration among various units to improve regulatory policies and legal frameworks, focusing on information sharing and monitoring capabilities [2]. - The Hong Kong government has implemented a licensing system for stablecoins, marking the establishment of a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-backed stablecoins [3]. Group 2: Market Risks and Criminal Activities - There has been a rise in speculative trading of virtual currencies, leading to increased illegal financial activities, which pose new challenges for risk management [2]. - Criminals have exploited the popularity of stablecoins to conduct illegal fundraising and scams, utilizing social media and offline presentations to mislead investors [4][5]. - A notable case involved individuals using shell companies to facilitate illegal foreign exchange transactions through stablecoins, amounting to 6.5 billion yuan over three years [4]. Group 3: Compliance and Future Outlook - The PBOC has reiterated that stablecoins do not have legal tender status and should not be used as currency, establishing clear boundaries for their development in the domestic market [6][7]. - The increasing complexity and volatility of stablecoins necessitate a cautious approach to investment and regulatory oversight [5]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's stance on stablecoins reveals inherent compliance risks, particularly in cross-border transactions where stablecoins can bypass capital controls [5].

Wangdaizi(wangdaizi@sohu.com) 美联储最高银行监管负责人鲍曼计划12月2日在向众议院金融服务委员会提交的书面证词中强调，监管 机构需以"负责任的方式鼓励创新"，同时持续提升对"创新带来的安全稳健性风险"的识别与管控能力。 这场听证会正值金融行业激辩数字资产监管未来之际，鲍曼的表态释放出监管层平衡创新与风险、推动 公平竞争的明确信号。 创新与风险双轮驱动：构建高效安全金融体系 鲍曼指出，新技术正重塑银行业生态——通过提升运营效率、扩大信贷覆盖范围，为消费者与企业创造 价值。她特别提及，金融科技与数字资产公司的蓬勃发展需匹配"公平竞争环境"，监管机构将致力于打 破行业壁垒，确保传统银行、金融科技公司及加密货币企业在同一起跑线上竞争。 稳定币监管框架加速成型：锚定《天才法案》要求 作为监管创新的核心抓手，鲍曼透露将联合多机构为稳定币发行机构制定资本与多元化监管规则，严格 落实《天才法案》对"注册备案+等额储备金"的硬性要求。此举旨在防止稳定币脱离传统金融监管框 架，避免成为系统性风险新源头。她承诺，监管方将发布清晰的数字资产监管指引，并对创新应用案例 提供及时反馈，确保规则既能包容技术迭 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reinforced its regulatory stance on stablecoins, categorizing them as a form of virtual currency that does not hold the same legal status as fiat currency and is subject to strict regulations against illegal financial activities [1][15][23]. Regulatory Evolution - China's regulatory approach to virtual currencies and stablecoins has been gradually deepening and improving, forming a dynamic governance system that adapts to market developments [3][17]. - The regulatory history dates back to 2013, with various government bodies consistently asserting that virtual currencies do not have the same legal status as fiat currency [3][17]. - Key regulatory milestones include the 2021 notice that elevated the regulatory framework, leading to the closure of domestic virtual currency trading platforms [3][17]. Recent Developments - The recent meeting emphasized the risks associated with stablecoins, including their potential use in money laundering and fraud, and the inability to meet customer identification and anti-money laundering requirements [1][15][22]. - The introduction of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation on August 1, 2025, has drawn attention to the need for a clear regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers [4][19]. Risk Considerations - Stablecoins are seen as high-risk due to their potential for misuse in illegal financial activities, with experts highlighting their anonymity and lack of transparency as significant concerns [22][26]. - The PBOC's classification of stablecoins as virtual currencies aims to prevent them from challenging the status of the digital yuan and to maintain the stability of the financial system [20][23]. Future Implications - The regulatory tightening is expected to shrink the operational space for stablecoins within China, with activities related to issuance, promotion, and trading being classified as illegal financial activities [11][24]. - The anticipated shift in stablecoin technology and liquidity towards offshore and regional financial centers is likely, as domestic regulations become more stringent [24]. - Future regulatory measures may focus on enhancing cooperation among various regulatory bodies and improving technological capabilities to combat illegal activities effectively [26].