欧洲主要国家的主权债券收益率也同步上升。法国10年期国债收益率一度上升8.5个基点至3.57%，德 国、英国、意大利、西班牙、荷兰、葡萄牙、希腊及瑞士的长期债券收益率均出现上扬。 消息传出后，欧洲债市率先遭遇抛售，随后波及美国国债市场。美国2年至30年期国债收益率在亚洲与 欧洲交易时段普遍走高：2年期国债收益率升至3.60%，10年期上扬约4个基点至4.16%，30年期则攀升 至4.76%，为逾一周以来的最高收盘水平。 与此同时，美国政府部分停摆进入第六天，市场担心事态可能持续更久。Mischler Financial Group董事 总经理Tom di Galoma指出："市场越来越担心美国政府关门可能持续到10月15日。法国总理在任不到一 个月就辞职，这一事件叠加了美债市场的抛压，推高了收益率。" 尽管债市走弱，美股整体表现坚挺。道琼斯指数微跌0.14%，标普500指数上涨0.36%，纳斯达克综合指 数收高0.71%。 智通财经APP获悉，周一，法国政治局势突变引发市场不安，全球债券收益率集体上扬。法国总理 Sébastien Lecornu在上任不到一个月后突然宣布辞职，此举导致法国预算通过前景受阻，投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury bond market is experiencing a sell-off of long-term bonds despite high expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, indicating concerns over long-term inflation and debt issues [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 3, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a high of 5%, the highest since July, while the 10-year yield hit 4.3% [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September reached 97.4% as of September 4, typically leading to lower bond yields; however, yields are rising instead [1][2] - Seasonal factors contribute to the sell-off, as September is a peak month for corporate bond issuance, diverting funds away from Treasury bonds [1][2] Group 2: Inflation and Debt Concerns - The rise in long-term bond yields reflects market worries about long-term inflation and U.S. debt risks, despite expectations for a Fed rate cut [2][3] - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates price increases related to tariffs, with companies passing on costs to customers, suggesting continued inflationary pressures [2] - The U.S. Treasury is expected to issue $1 trillion in net debt in Q3, with approximately $470 billion in long-term bonds, increasing supply and raising yield expectations [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is likely to restart rate cuts in September, with market pricing indicating two cuts by year-end; however, long-term yields may remain constrained due to inflation and debt concerns [4] - If the Fed signals a cautious approach to rate cuts, bond yields may face upward pressure, especially if corporate bond issuance exceeds expectations in mid to late September [4] - Short-term yields are expected to decline in line with policy rates, while long-term yields may not decrease significantly due to ongoing inflation and debt issues [4]