Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in London spot gold prices, which fell from a historical high of approximately $4381 to a low of $3888, is attributed to various macroeconomic factors and market sentiments regarding central bank gold purchases and geopolitical stability [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The easing trade tensions have negatively impacted the outlook for continued gold price increases [1]. - Concerns regarding whether central banks will continue to purchase gold at such high prices have emerged [1]. - The stabilization of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is seen as a potential reason for future downward pressure on gold prices [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to continue interest rate cuts may lead to a mid-term rebound in the US dollar index, indirectly causing a sell-off in gold positions [1]. - The dollar index is anticipated to experience a "flashback" rise around the time of the US mid-term elections next year, influenced by the strength of the US economy and global economic cooperation [1]. Group 3: Future Projections - If gold prices retrace to the $3700-$3800 range, there is a high probability of a rebound towards the $4000 mark, with potential fluctuations until the end of the dollar's upward cycle [1]. - Post-2025, the traditional inverse relationship between the dollar and gold may weaken, particularly if the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate surpasses the 7:1 threshold, potentially triggering a rebound in the dollar index and causing stagnation in gold prices [2].