Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures down 1.07% to $3678.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.12% to $42.1 per ounce, influenced by a hawkish speech from Powell following the Fed's interest rate cut [1] - The Fed's rate cut is characterized as a risk management measure, with no significant deterioration in U.S. employment and inflation risks, suggesting a gradual approach to future rate cuts, particularly slowing down after 2026 [1] - The market anticipates that gold prices may experience a new upward trend following a breakthrough in early September, potentially lasting until the spring or summer of 2026, with recommendations for investors to maintain a bullish stance on precious metals [1] Group 2 - Despite high U.S. Treasury yields in the first half of the year and a nearly 20% year-on-year decline in gold jewelry and central bank demand, gold ETFs saw the strongest capital inflow since 2020, with a net inflow of nearly 400 tons, accounting for 17% of total gold demand in the first half of the year [1] - The overall judgment from the industry indicates that gold prices typically exhibit a pattern of "initial rise followed by adjustment, with long-term benefits" during interest rate cut cycles, suggesting a potential for price increases in the medium to long term [4] - The industry remains cautious about short-term risks of price adjustments following the rate cut, while still recognizing the long-term investment value of gold, especially if geopolitical risks escalate or recession is confirmed [4]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley suggests buying Zijin Mining (02899.HK) during gold price pullbacks due to solid valuation re-evaluation prospects [1] Group 1: Valuation and Market Potential - Zijin Mining's overseas gold mining assets are expected to be listed, potentially increasing its market value by 11% to 17% [1] - The company's gold exposure is projected to surpass its copper exposure by Q2 2025, which may help narrow the valuation gap between Zijin and pure gold companies [1] Group 2: Current Valuation Metrics - Zijin Mining currently has a 12-month forward P/E ratio of 11 times, compared to the average expected P/E of 17 times for pure gold companies [1] - Morgan Stanley reiterates an "overweight" rating for both Zijin's A-shares and H-shares [1]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - Recent macroeconomic concerns regarding U.S. debt and deficits have led to a temporary rebound in U.S. Treasury and dollar index, but the previous bullish sentiment in precious metals has not sustained, resulting in profit-taking [1] - The U.S. consumer confidence index rose significantly from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, indicating improved economic outlook among consumers, despite a decline in durable goods orders [2] - The recent geopolitical stability has contributed to a short-term correction in precious metals, with expectations of gold prices potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce by late 2025 or 2026 [3] Group 2: Price Movements and Technical Analysis - Gold prices have recently experienced volatility due to changes in trade relations between major economies, with a notable drop of nearly $60 in New York futures following shifts in U.S.-EU trade dynamics [4] - The current decline in gold prices marks the third correction since reaching above $3,500 on April 22, suggesting a weakening upward momentum that may indicate a significant market shift if the trend continues [4] - Analysts caution that the market's response to geopolitical narratives is swift, and the recent adjustments in precious metals may not be merely temporary [4]

Group 1 - The international gold price has recently declined, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3247.4 per ounce on May 2, down 7.48% from the high of $3509.9 per ounce on April 22 [2] - As a result of the price drop, brand jewelry gold prices have generally fallen below 1000 yuan per gram, with some brands like Laomiao Gold priced at 987 yuan per gram and others like Chow Tai Fook at 998 yuan per gram [2] - During the "May Day" holiday, major gold jewelry brands launched promotional activities, with discounts leading to prices as low as 858 yuan per gram for certain brands [2] Group 2 - According to the World Gold Council's Q1 2025 Global Gold Demand Trends Report, global gold demand reached 1206 tons in Q1, a 1% year-on-year increase, despite gold prices exceeding $3000 per ounce [3] - In China, gold consumption in Q1 2025 was 290.492 tons, a decrease of 5.96% year-on-year, with gold jewelry demand dropping significantly by 26.85% to 134.531 tons [3] - Conversely, demand for gold bars and coins in China increased by 29.81% to 138.018 tons, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3]