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金市晨报 | “停摆”与全球贸易担忧支持金价
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-15 23:33
来源:中国黄金网 美国两党争端导致"停摆"持续,今日凌晨公布的褐皮书显示美国物价进一步上涨,消费支出小幅下降, 劳动力需求低迷,不确定性风险或拖累经济。美指美债疲软,市场对全球贸易的担忧使得纽约期货金价 和伦敦现货金价维持于4200美元/盎司关口上方。特朗普提名的白宫经济顾问兼美联储理事米兰表示希 望看到更大幅度降息。 (以上内容不构成投资建议或操作指南,为作者本人观点,不代表本平台立场) 编辑|焦扬 版式|焦扬 视觉|张宗伟 校对|王蓓 审读|倪金合 ...
贵金属盘中跳水不期而至 投资者忧心“高处不胜寒”
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-14 17:40
Core Insights - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have reached historic highs, with gold surpassing $4,000 and silver hitting a 45-year peak, drawing significant market attention [1][2] - Despite the recent surge, there are concerns about short-term volatility, leading some institutions to adopt a cautious stance on precious metals [1][3] Market Performance - On October 14, gold futures rose initially but faced a significant drop, with gold futures down 3% at one point and silver futures fluctuating over 6%. By the end of the day, gold futures closed at 938.98 yuan per gram, up 2.7%, while silver futures closed at 11,533 yuan per kilogram, also up 2.64% [2] - The London spot market saw gold prices recover above $4,100 after a brief decline [2] Drivers of Price Movement - The recent surge in precious metals is attributed to the "TACO trade" initiated by the Trump administration, alongside a liquidity crisis in the silver market that has driven prices higher [2][4] - The Philadelphia Fed's new chair's support for two more rate cuts this year, combined with the fragile Middle East ceasefire, has contributed to the bullish trend in precious metals [2] Institutional Outlook - Major U.S. institutions express a consensus of being "long-term bullish but short-term cautious" on precious metals. Bank of America raised its 2026 gold price target to $5,000 per ounce and silver to $65 per ounce, citing ongoing support from unconventional policies [3] - Goldman Sachs also sees potential for silver price increases driven by private investment inflows but warns of liquidity risks [3][5] Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing a historic short squeeze, with London spot inventories down 75% since 2019, leading to soaring leasing rates and increased delivery costs for short sellers [4] - Year-to-date, silver prices have risen nearly 80%, outperforming gold recently [4] Long-term Investment Considerations - Despite gold's rise above $4,000, its unique safe-haven value remains highly regarded, with suggestions for investors to allocate 15% of their portfolios to gold [6] - Goldman Sachs predicts further increases in gold prices, raising its 2026 forecast to $4,900, driven by central bank diversification and expected rate cuts [7] - The ongoing strong performance of gold in 2025 is attracting renewed investor interest, with ETF inflows turning positive [8]
黄金 BTC 联手疯涨,为什么偏偏是黄金和 BTC?购买力保卫战已打响
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 02:49
10 月以来的金融市场彻底颠覆认知,纽约期金 10 月 7 日首次冲破 4000 美元 / 盎司,年内暴涨 50%;比特币紧随其后,一度摸高 11.57 万美元,24 小时 15 万人因做空爆仓 4 亿美元。 更震撼的是市场反应:纽约期金突破 4000 美元整数关口,伦敦现货金飙至 3977 美元,这轮上涨根本不是 "投机炒作",高盛早预警过,各国央行年购金量 将达 80 吨,美联储降息后资金还会疯狂涌入。黄金的底气,就在于全球已探明储量仅 5.6 万吨,挖完即止的稀缺性。 这波疯涨背后,藏着华尔街大佬戳破的真相:"任何有价值的东西都不会无限供应,只要政府还在印钞,比特币和黄金就会继续飙升"。四季度这场 "稀缺性 对决印钞机" 的大戏,普通人看懂就能守住钱袋子! 黄金,央行都在抢的 "终极支付手段" 10 月 7 日国家外汇管理局数据砸出定心丸:我国央行已连续 11 个月增持黄金,即便 9 月增量降至 4 万盎司,仍坚定推进储备多元化。要知道,当前我国黄 金储备占比仅 7.7%,远低于 15% 的全球平均水平,未来增持空间巨大。 "2100 万枚上限,永远不会多印 1 个!" 比特币的稀缺性写死在区块链代码里 ...
冠通期货早盘速递-20250918
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:37
Hot News - On September 17, Hong Kong Chief Executive Li Jiachao announced in the 2025 Policy Address that Hong Kong will cooperate with exchanges in the Greater Bay Area to develop new businesses such as commodity trading and carbon trading [2] - As of the end of July, the balance of national housing consumer loans excluding individual housing loans reached 21.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 34.6 billion yuan from the beginning of the year and a year-on-year increase of 5.34% [2] - After nearly a decade of negotiations, the EU and Indonesia have completed a trade agreement, part of the EU's efforts to diversify supply chains and explore new markets [2] - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, resuming the rate cut suspended since December last year [2] - Fed Chairman Powell said there was no broad support for a 50-basis-point rate cut at this week's meeting [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are 20 rubber, rebar, staple fiber, Shanghai Copper II, and Shanghai Gold [4] Night Session Performance - Night session performance of commodity futures main contracts shows varying degrees of increase and decrease, with details of price changes and position increase ratios presented [4] Sector Performance - Non-metallic building materials sector had a 2.66% increase [5] - Sector capital ratios: precious metals 29.85%, oils and fats 11.11%, non-ferrous metals 20.57%, soft commodities 2.30%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 14.68%, energy 3.07%, chemicals 11.53%, grains 1.03%, agricultural and sideline products 3.20% [6] Asset Performance - Stock indices performance: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37% daily, 0.48% monthly, and 15.65% annually; Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.17% daily, -0.80% monthly, and 9.98% annually; CSI 300 Index rose 0.61% daily, 1.21% monthly, and 15.66% annually; CSI 500 Index rose 0.96% daily, 3.07% monthly, and 26.80% annually; S&P 500 Index fell -0.10% daily, rose 2.17% monthly, and 12.22% annually; Hang Seng Index rose 1.78% daily, 7.30% monthly, and 34.14% annually; German DAX Index rose 0.13% daily, -2.27% monthly, and 17.33% annually [8] - Performance of other assets includes various bonds, commodities, and indices with different daily, monthly, and annual changes [9] Main Commodity Trends - Presented are the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc [10] Stock Market Risk Preference - Analyzed is the stock market risk preference through indicators such as the risk premium of the Wande All A (excluding finance, petroleum and petrochemicals), Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [15][16]
【UNFX周评】一周评述 :宽松预期主导下,风险与避险资产的联袂狂欢
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-13 15:09
Group 1: Market Overview - The global financial market experienced a unique rally where both risk and safe-haven assets rose simultaneously, driven by weak labor market data in the US, paving the way for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Major global stock indices saw significant gains, with the S&P 500 rising approximately 1.6% for the week, marking its best weekly performance of the month and reaching historical highs [1][3] - European stock markets also recorded gains, albeit more modestly, influenced by improved global risk sentiment and the European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates [1] Group 2: Regional Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan reached a new historical high, benefiting from positive global risk sentiment and a weaker yen, which favored export-oriented companies [2] - Semiconductor and AI-related stocks were key drivers of the Nikkei's rise, reflecting strong performance in these sectors [2] Group 3: Commodity Market Dynamics - Gold emerged as a standout performer, breaking historical highs due to expectations of Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and declining real yields, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - The oil market exhibited mixed trends, influenced by concerns over economic slowdown and OPEC+ production increases, while a weaker dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions provided some support [2]
【UNFX周评】金融市场一周评述 :宽松预期主导下,风险与避险资产的联袂狂欢
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-13 14:00
Global Financial Market Overview - The global financial market experienced a unique rally where both risk and safe-haven assets rose simultaneously, driven by weak labor market data from the U.S. that paved the way for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The expectation of the Fed shifting to a more accommodative monetary policy significantly boosted global stock indices [1][3] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock markets, particularly the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, were the biggest beneficiaries of the positive sentiment, with the S&P 500 rising approximately 1.6% for the week, marking its best weekly performance of the month and reaching historical highs [4] - European stock markets also saw gains, albeit more modestly, influenced by the positive sentiment from U.S. markets and the European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates [4] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan performed exceptionally well, reaching a new historical high, supported by favorable global risk sentiment and a weaker yen benefiting export-oriented companies [4] Commodity Market Insights - Gold emerged as a standout performer, reaching historical highs due to expectations of Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and declining real yields, supported by ongoing central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [4] - The oil market experienced mixed signals, with prices fluctuating due to concerns over economic slowdown and OPEC+ production increases, while a weaker dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions provided some support [4]
冠通期货早盘速递-20250819
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 02:54
Report Summary 1. Hot News - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury bond market - making support operations to enhance secondary - market liquidity and improve the treasury bond yield curve [1] - As of August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period [1] - China supports efforts for peaceful crisis resolution and welcomes Russia - US contact on the Ukraine issue [2] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, boosting domestic circulation, and stimulating consumption [2] 2. Key Focus - Commodities to focus on: coking coal, rapeseed meal, PX, soda ash, and asphalt [3] 3. Night - session Performance - Sector performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.88%, precious metals 26.18%, oilseeds 13.06%, non - ferrous metals 21.24%, soft commodities 2.63%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.83%, energy 3.29%, chemicals 11.70%, grains 1.21%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.97% [3] 4. Sector Positions - The document shows the five - day changes in commodity futures sector positions from August 12 - 18, 2025 [4] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.85 | 4.33 | 11.23 | | | SSE 50 | 0.21 | 2.27 | 5.74 | | | CSI 300 | 0.88 | 4.02 | 7.74 | | | CSI 500 | 1.52 | 7.10 | 16.46 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.01 | 1.73 | 9.65 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.37 | 1.63 | 25.51 | | | German DAX | - 0.18 | 1.04 | 22.13 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.77 | 6.44 | 9.57 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 12.05 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | - 0.29 | - 0.43 | - 0.84 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | - 0.21 | - 0.26 | - 1.02 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | - 0.04 | - 0.05 | - 0.65 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.16 | - 1.25 | - 0.24 | | | WTI crude oil | 0.88 | - 8.48 | - 11.92 | | | London spot gold | - 0.10 | 1.28 | 26.97 | | | LME copper | - 0.41 | 1.31 | 10.84 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 0.11 | - 0.40 | 15.15 | | Others | US Dollar Index | 0.31 | - 1.89 | - 9.52 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 9.75 | - 13.03 | [5] 6. Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as risk premiums of related stock indices [6]
冠通期货早盘速递-20250818
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 01:24
Hot News - In July, CPI showed positive changes, with the month-on-month change turning from decline to increase, and the year-on-year increase of core CPI expanding continuously [1] - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, the national service production index increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a stable and progressive development of the national economy [1] - In August, the central bank will continue to inject medium-term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchase, and may implement another RRR cut and interest rate cut around the beginning of the fourth quarter [1] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain adequate liquidity, and ensure that the growth of social financing scale and money supply matches the economic growth and price level targets [2] - Trump plans to determine the tariffs on steel and chips in the next one or two weeks, with a possible tax rate of 200% or 300% [2] Key Focus - The sectors to focus on are coking coal, palm oil, methanol, soda ash, and glass [3] Night Session Performance - The night session performance shows that the non-metallic building materials sector rose 2.89%, the precious metals sector rose 26.74%, the oilseeds sector rose 12.96%, the non-ferrous metals sector rose 21.30%, the soft commodities sector rose 2.47%, the coal, coke, and steel ore sector rose 14.70%, the energy sector rose 3.35%, the chemical sector rose 11.55%, the grain sector rose 1.17%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 2.87% [3] Sector Positions - The data shows the changes in the positions of various commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83% daily, 3.46% monthly, and 10.29% annually; the S&P 500 fell 0.29% daily, rose 1.74% monthly, and rose 9.66% annually; the Hang Seng Index fell 0.98% daily, rose 2.01% monthly, and rose 25.97% annually [5] - In the fixed-income market, the 10-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.05% daily, 0.18% monthly, and 0.58% annually; the 5-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.02% daily, 0.06% monthly, and 0.83% annually [5] - In the commodity market, WTI crude oil fell 1.24% daily, 8.74% monthly, and 12.17% annually; London spot gold rose 0.01% daily, 1.39% monthly, and 27.10% annually [5] - Other assets include the US dollar index, which fell 0.36% daily, 2.20% monthly, and 9.80% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index rose 1.75% daily, fell 9.75% monthly, and fell 13.03% annually [5]
威尔鑫点金·׀ 黄金关税二人转令金价失守3400 三角形突破再失败
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 07:23
Group 1 - The international spot gold price opened at $3,397.25, reached a high of $3,404.19, and closed at $3,342.20, down $56.41 or 1.66% on the day, indicating a significant downward trend [1] - The COMEX gold futures price hit a historical high of $3,534.10, with a premium of $126.08 per ounce over London spot gold, creating a unique arbitrage opportunity [8] - Following the announcement that gold would not be subject to tariffs, the COMEX gold price dropped by over 2%, reflecting a strong market reaction to the news [11] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index opened at 98.26 points, closing at 98.49 points, up 240 points or 0.24%, indicating a slight recovery in the dollar [3] - The Wellxin precious metals index opened at 6,962.51 points and closed at 6,884.46 points, down 78.52 points or 1.13%, showing a downward trend in precious metals [4] - Concerns over liquidity in the market have increased due to the U.S. Treasury's issuance of approximately $328 billion in treasury bills to replenish cash reserves, which may impact market stability [12]
白宫拟澄清黄金进口关税政策 纽约期金闻讯跳水
智通财经网· 2025-08-08 23:58
Group 1 - The Trump administration plans to issue a new policy clarifying that gold bullion imports should not be subject to tariffs, aiming to calm the global gold market turmoil caused by a previous ruling from U.S. Customs and Border Protection [1][4] - Following the announcement, gold prices in New York and London experienced a narrowing of the price difference, which had previously surged to over $100 per ounce due to tariff concerns, now reduced to below $60 [1] - The initial market chaos was triggered by a ruling stating that gold bars weighing one kilogram and 100 ounces would be subject to "equivalent tariffs," which could have significant implications for the global gold market and disrupt U.S. gold futures contracts [4] Group 2 - The announcement from the White House led to a rapid decline in gold-related stocks, including Newmont Corp, Agnico Eagle Mines, Franco-Nevada, and VanEck Gold Miners ETF, as the market reacted to the news [4] - Analysts noted that gold serves as both a financial asset and an international currency, distinguishing it from industrial metals like copper, steel, and aluminum that were previously affected by tariffs [4] - The market anticipates that the issuance of a clarifying executive order will help alleviate the market turmoil caused by concerns over gold tariffs, although Trump administration officials have emphasized that future tariff policies will avoid broad exemptions to maintain tariff effectiveness [4]