Report Summary 1. Hot News - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury bond market - making support operations to enhance secondary - market liquidity and improve the treasury bond yield curve [1] - As of August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period [1] - China supports efforts for peaceful crisis resolution and welcomes Russia - US contact on the Ukraine issue [2] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, boosting domestic circulation, and stimulating consumption [2] 2. Key Focus - Commodities to focus on: coking coal, rapeseed meal, PX, soda ash, and asphalt [3] 3. Night - session Performance - Sector performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.88%, precious metals 26.18%, oilseeds 13.06%, non - ferrous metals 21.24%, soft commodities 2.63%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.83%, energy 3.29%, chemicals 11.70%, grains 1.21%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.97% [3] 4. Sector Positions - The document shows the five - day changes in commodity futures sector positions from August 12 - 18, 2025 [4] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.85 | 4.33 | 11.23 | | | SSE 50 | 0.21 | 2.27 | 5.74 | | | CSI 300 | 0.88 | 4.02 | 7.74 | | | CSI 500 | 1.52 | 7.10 | 16.46 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.01 | 1.73 | 9.65 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.37 | 1.63 | 25.51 | | | German DAX | - 0.18 | 1.04 | 22.13 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.77 | 6.44 | 9.57 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 12.05 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | - 0.29 | - 0.43 | - 0.84 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | - 0.21 | - 0.26 | - 1.02 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | - 0.04 | - 0.05 | - 0.65 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.16 | - 1.25 | - 0.24 | | | WTI crude oil | 0.88 | - 8.48 | - 11.92 | | | London spot gold | - 0.10 | 1.28 | 26.97 | | | LME copper | - 0.41 | 1.31 | 10.84 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 0.11 | - 0.40 | 15.15 | | Others | US Dollar Index | 0.31 | - 1.89 | - 9.52 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 9.75 | - 13.03 | [5] 6. Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as risk premiums of related stock indices [6]

Hot News - In July, CPI showed positive changes, with the month-on-month change turning from decline to increase, and the year-on-year increase of core CPI expanding continuously [1] - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, the national service production index increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a stable and progressive development of the national economy [1] - In August, the central bank will continue to inject medium-term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchase, and may implement another RRR cut and interest rate cut around the beginning of the fourth quarter [1] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain adequate liquidity, and ensure that the growth of social financing scale and money supply matches the economic growth and price level targets [2] - Trump plans to determine the tariffs on steel and chips in the next one or two weeks, with a possible tax rate of 200% or 300% [2] Key Focus - The sectors to focus on are coking coal, palm oil, methanol, soda ash, and glass [3] Night Session Performance - The night session performance shows that the non-metallic building materials sector rose 2.89%, the precious metals sector rose 26.74%, the oilseeds sector rose 12.96%, the non-ferrous metals sector rose 21.30%, the soft commodities sector rose 2.47%, the coal, coke, and steel ore sector rose 14.70%, the energy sector rose 3.35%, the chemical sector rose 11.55%, the grain sector rose 1.17%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 2.87% [3] Sector Positions - The data shows the changes in the positions of various commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83% daily, 3.46% monthly, and 10.29% annually; the S&P 500 fell 0.29% daily, rose 1.74% monthly, and rose 9.66% annually; the Hang Seng Index fell 0.98% daily, rose 2.01% monthly, and rose 25.97% annually [5] - In the fixed-income market, the 10-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.05% daily, 0.18% monthly, and 0.58% annually; the 5-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.02% daily, 0.06% monthly, and 0.83% annually [5] - In the commodity market, WTI crude oil fell 1.24% daily, 8.74% monthly, and 12.17% annually; London spot gold rose 0.01% daily, 1.39% monthly, and 27.10% annually [5] - Other assets include the US dollar index, which fell 0.36% daily, 2.20% monthly, and 9.80% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index rose 1.75% daily, fell 9.75% monthly, and fell 13.03% annually [5]

Group 1 - The Trump administration plans to issue a new policy clarifying that gold bullion imports should not be subject to tariffs, aiming to calm the global gold market turmoil caused by a previous ruling from U.S. Customs and Border Protection [1][4] - Following the announcement, gold prices in New York and London experienced a narrowing of the price difference, which had previously surged to over $100 per ounce due to tariff concerns, now reduced to below $60 [1] - The initial market chaos was triggered by a ruling stating that gold bars weighing one kilogram and 100 ounces would be subject to "equivalent tariffs," which could have significant implications for the global gold market and disrupt U.S. gold futures contracts [4] Group 2 - The announcement from the White House led to a rapid decline in gold-related stocks, including Newmont Corp, Agnico Eagle Mines, Franco-Nevada, and VanEck Gold Miners ETF, as the market reacted to the news [4] - Analysts noted that gold serves as both a financial asset and an international currency, distinguishing it from industrial metals like copper, steel, and aluminum that were previously affected by tariffs [4] - The market anticipates that the issuance of a clarifying executive order will help alleviate the market turmoil caused by concerns over gold tariffs, although Trump administration officials have emphasized that future tariff policies will avoid broad exemptions to maintain tariff effectiveness [4]

Group 1: Hot News - The central bank, the financial regulatory administration, and the CSRC plan to further clarify the specific requirements for risk-based customer due diligence of financial institutions. For financial institutions and exchange service providers, when the amount of funds remitted abroad by customers is RMB 5,000 or more per transaction, or the foreign currency equivalent of $1,000 or more, they should verify the identity of the remitter to ensure the accuracy of the remitter's information. Payment institutions need to register when selling prepaid cards worth more than RMB 10,000 at one time [2] - In the first half of the year, China's total service imports and exports reached 3.88726 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Among them, exports were 1.6883 trillion yuan, up 15%; imports were 2.19896 trillion yuan, up 3.2%. The service trade deficit was 510.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 152.21 billion yuan [2] - According to the preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in July were 1.18 million, a year-on-year increase of 25% and a month-on-month decrease of 4%. Among them, Tesla China sold 67,900 vehicles in July, a month-on-month decrease of 5.2% [2] - US President Trump said that India is not only buying a large amount of Russian oil but also reselling a large part of it on the open market to make huge profits. Therefore, the US will significantly increase the tariffs paid by India to the US [2] - In July, imported soybeans arrived at ports in a concentrated manner, and the operating rate of oil mills remained high. The soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 10.1 million tons, basically flat month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 14.59%. Last week, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills remained at a high level. As of the week ending August 1, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 2.25 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 20,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 80,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 180,000 tons, and an increase of 360,000 tons compared with the average of the same period in the past three years. It is expected that the operating rate of oil mills will remain high this week, with a crushing volume of about 2.2 million tons [3] Group 2: Key Focus - The sectors to focus on are urea, coking coal, plastic, Shanghai copper, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - The night session performance of different commodity sectors shows that non-metallic building materials rose 2.89%, precious metals rose 28.20%, oilseeds rose 12.31%, non-ferrous and soft commodities rose 2.53% and 21.15% respectively, coal, coke, steel and ore rose 14.26%, energy rose 3.09%, chemicals rose 11.61%, grains rose 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.78% [4] Group 4: Plate Position - The changes in the positions of commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented, but specific data is not clearly described in text form [5] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of different asset classes are provided. For example, among equities, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.66% daily, 0.28% monthly, and 6.91% annually; among fixed-income products, the 10-year Treasury bond futures rose 0.02% daily, -0.01% monthly, and -0.42% annually; among commodities, the CRB Commodity Index fell -0.55% daily, -1.50% monthly, and -0.49% annually [7] Group 6: Major Commodity Trends - The trends of major commodities are presented through various charts, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as the risk premium of the stock market [8]

Group 1: Hot News - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill with 218 votes in favor and 214 against. The bill raises the federal government's debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [3] - In June, China's warehousing index was 51%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and has been in the expansion range for eight consecutive months. Major sub - indices have rebounded [3] - U.S. non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, far exceeding the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. After the data release, the market abandoned bets on a Fed rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to about 80% [3] - OPEC+ has started discussing an 8 - month production increase of 411,000 barrels per day and will further discuss it in an online meeting this weekend [4] - As of the week of July 3, rebar production increased for the third consecutive week, factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 2210800 tons, up 1.49%; factory inventory was 1804700 tons, down 2.76%; social inventory was 3647400 tons, up 0.37%; apparent demand was 2248700 tons, up 2.26% [4] Group 2: Key Focus and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, hot - rolled coil, soybean oil, and PVC [5] - Night - session performance by sectors: Non - metallic building materials 2.75%, precious metals 27.92%, oilseeds 12.06%, non - ferrous metals 21.61%, soft commodities 2.82%, coal, coke, steel and ore 13.52%, energy 3.05%, chemicals 12.35%, grains 1.11%, agricultural and sideline products 2.81% [5] Group 3: Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 0.49%, and an annual increase of 3.26%. Other indices also had different performance [7] - Fixed - income: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had their respective daily, monthly, and annual performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index had different performance [7] - Others: The U.S. dollar index and CBOE volatility had their respective performance [7]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Chinese Premier Li Qiang stated on June 25 that China welcomes foreign enterprises to invest and develop in China [1]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out during a research trip in Hebei from June 23 - 24 that efforts should be made to build a unified national market, boost domestic demand and consumption, and develop a new model for the real estate industry [1]. - The People's Bank of China conducted 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations on June 25, with a net investment of 118 billion yuan, marking the fourth consecutive month of increased roll - overs [1]. - Shenzhen issued measures to promote high - quality development of service consumption, including strengthening fiscal and financial support [1]. - US President Trump said on June 25 that the US will hold talks with Iran next week, and he believes the military conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, but it may resume [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - Chinese government leaders expressed stances on economic development and international cooperation, and the central bank carried out MLF operations [1]. - US President Trump made statements about the situation between Israel and Iran [2]. Key Focus - The report focuses on commodities such as caustic soda, LPG, container shipping index, crude oil, and coking coal [3]. Night - session Performance - Among different commodity sectors, the precious metals sector had the highest increase of 28.40%, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector with 19.47%, and the coal - coking - steel - mining sector with 13.28% [3]. Category Asset Performance - In the equity category, the Hang Seng Index had a significant annual increase of 22.01%. In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year treasury bond futures had a slight annual increase of 0.06%. In the commodity category, London spot gold had an annual increase of 26.98% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, on international oil and gold prices, highlighting the potential for price fluctuations due to supply concerns and market sentiment [1][2]. Oil Market Analysis - Since the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict on June 13, international oil prices have risen, with Brent crude oil prices increasing by over 9% [2]. - Concerns regarding oil supply stem from Iran's current production of approximately 3.4 million barrels per day and an export volume of about 1.5 million barrels per day, predominantly to China [2]. - The potential for conflict escalation raises fears of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil are transported daily, accounting for 75% of oil transport in the region [2]. - Despite these concerns, the global oil supply situation remains manageable, with OPEC in a production increase cycle and an estimated 4-5 million barrels per day of idle capacity available [2][3]. - Long-term projections suggest that international oil prices may stabilize around $65 per barrel, influenced by inflationary pressures in the U.S. and geopolitical dynamics [3][4]. Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices have surged due to the heightened tensions in the Middle East, currently hovering around $3,400 per ounce [5]. - Over the past month, gold prices have rebounded from below $3,200 per ounce, with a potential challenge to the previous high of $3,500 per ounce [5]. - The increase in gold prices is attributed to rising risk aversion amid geopolitical instability and a declining U.S. dollar index, which enhances the valuation of dollar-denominated gold [5]. - Long-term trends indicate that gold prices are influenced by the global monetary system, central bank policies, and inflation expectations, with potential for prices to reach $3,700-$3,800 per ounce if they surpass the $3,500 mark [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, China's economic data showed positive trends, with the added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 5.8% year - on - year, and retail sales of consumer goods growing by 6.4%. High - end manufacturing and digital economy continued to expand, with the added - value of high - tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increasing by 8.6% and 9.1% respectively [2]. - In May, housing prices in all tiers of cities in China declined month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. Newly - built commercial housing sales area and sales volume decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% respectively from January to May [2]. - Iran may engage in dialogue with the US and Israel and may discuss a proposal to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non - Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons [2]. - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and for 2026 at 1.28 million barrels per day. In May, OPEC +'s average daily crude oil production was 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April [3]. - The price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2507 fell below 60,000 yuan per ton, leading to a slowdown in new lithium production capacity and some companies terminating projects. Lithium enterprises are now focusing on overseas expansion [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - Economic data: In May, the added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%, and the fixed - asset investment from January to May increased by 3.7% year - on - year. High - tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing showed strong growth [2]. - Housing prices: In May, housing prices in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, with new home prices in first - and second - tier cities down 0.2% and first - tier city second - hand home prices down 0.7%. The year - on - year decline continued to narrow. From January to May, newly - built commercial housing sales area and sales volume decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% respectively [2]. - International news: Iran may engage in dialogue with the US and Israel and may discuss a proposal to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non - Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons [2]. - Crude oil: OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and for 2026 at 1.28 million barrels per day. In May, OPEC +'s average daily crude oil production was 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April [3]. - Lithium market: The price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2507 fell below 60,000 yuan per ton, leading to a slowdown in new lithium production capacity and some companies terminating projects. Lithium enterprises are now focusing on overseas expansion [3]. Key Concerns - Key commodities to focus on are urea, asphalt, soybean oil, hot - rolled coils, and Shanghai copper [4]. Night - session Performance No specific performance data is clearly described other than the range of possible changes in the provided charts. Sector Performance - Different commodity sectors had different performances, with precious metals having a 30.87% increase, non - metallic building materials 2.50%, and so on [7]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes had different daily, monthly, and annual returns. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.35%, a monthly increase of 1.23%, and an annual increase of 1.10% [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a significant decline, influenced by geopolitical developments and trade agreements, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [1][3][7]. Price Movement - On May 12, gold opened lower at $3294.82 per ounce, fluctuating between $3265 and $3285, with a daily high of $3305.91 before closing at $3234.72, down $94.13 or 2.83% from the previous close of $3328.85 [1][3]. - The price is expected to remain volatile, with potential support levels at $3160 and resistance at $3290 [3][12]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index showed strength, which may exert downward pressure on gold prices, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is also trending upwards, indicating a potential bullish outlook for yields [5][7]. - Upcoming economic data, including the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the U.S. CPI, could influence gold prices, with expectations of weak confidence potentially benefiting gold [5][8]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent developments, such as the U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement and easing geopolitical tensions, have contributed to the bearish sentiment in gold prices [3][7]. - Despite these agreements, concerns about economic growth and inflation persist, which may sustain gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [8][9]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a significant weakening of bullish momentum, with gold prices expected to oscillate within a range of $2900 to $3400 over the next few years unless a new high is established [9][10]. - The weekly chart shows a bearish reversal pattern, suggesting that gold may remain in a weak adjustment phase until it can break above $3500 [10][12]. Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment suggests that gold will likely continue to experience fluctuations within a wide range, with potential for a downturn if it fails to reclaim the $3290 level [3][7][12]. - The long-term outlook indicates that as the interest rate cycle nears its end, gold's attractiveness may diminish, leading to a potential peak and subsequent correction [8][9].

Group 1: Hot News - The US economy contracted for the first time since 2022 in Q1, with annualized inflation-adjusted GDP down 0.3%, far below the average growth rate of about 3% in the past two years. Net exports dragged GDP by nearly 5 percentage points, and consumer spending grew at only 1.8%, the weakest since mid-2023. Business equipment spending was the only bright spot, growing at an annualized rate of 22.5% [3] - In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month. Non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range. High-tech manufacturing and related industries continued to expand, and manufacturing enterprises focusing on domestic sales had stable production and operations [3] - The US and Ukraine jointly created the Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund. The ownership and control of resources in Ukraine remain with Ukraine. The fund will be jointly managed by the two countries with a 50:50 ratio, and neither has a dominant voting right. The fund will be filled entirely by new license revenues [4] - OPEC+ announced that 8 participating countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. The gradual increase may be suspended or reversed depending on market conditions [4] - US employment growth was strong in April, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 (expected 130,000), and the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.2%, indicating that the uncertainty of Trump's trade policy has not significantly affected recruitment plans [4] Group 2: Commodity Market - The capital proportions of different commodity sectors are as follows: non-metallic building materials 2.52%, precious metals 29.74%, oilseeds 12.51%, soft commodities 3.18%, non-ferrous metals 19.54%, coking coal and steel minerals 12.98%, energy 2.70%, chemicals 12.36%, grains 1.91%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.56% [5] - Key commodities to focus on include urea, crude oil, plastic, glass, and lithium carbonate [6] Group 3: Asset Performance - The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of major indices are as follows: Shanghai Composite Index -0.23%, 0.00%, -2.17%; SSE 50 -0.47%, 0.00%, -1.92%; CSI 300 -0.12%, 0.00%, -4.18%; CSI 500 0.48%, 0.00%, -1.64%; S&P 500 0.15%, 1.46%, -3.93%; Hang Seng Index 0.51%, 1.74%, 12.19%; Germany DAX 0.32%, 3.77%, 17.26%; Nikkei 225 0.57%, 2.18%, -7.68%; UK FTSE 100 0.37%, 1.19%, 5.18% [8] - The performance of major commodities shows different trends, such as WTI crude oil -3.69% daily, -1.63% monthly, -20.41% annually; London spot gold -0.85% daily, -1.45% monthly, 23.49% annually; LME copper -3.34% daily, 2.64% monthly, 6.65% annually [8]