Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September fully priced in, and two additional cuts anticipated for the year [1] Group 1: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The non-farm payroll data needs to be significantly worse than expected to alter the current narrative of rate cuts and exert pressure on the U.S. dollar [1] - Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, the U.S. dollar may strengthen again [1] Group 2: Inflation and Market Sentiment - There are ongoing concerns regarding inflation driven by tariffs, and any signs of rising inflation could challenge bearish positions on the U.S. dollar [1] - The U.S. dollar index has declined alongside softening U.S. Treasury yields, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Daily momentum indicators are showing mild bullish signs, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, suggesting that the U.S. dollar may face risks of two-way fluctuations in the short term [1]