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9月降息的确定性与年内降息的变数
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-24 12:32
证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250824 9 月降息的确定性与年内降息的变数 2025 年 08 月 24 日 ◼ Jackson Hole 会议:风险平衡要求调整货币政策立场,为 9 月降息铺 路。今年 Jackson Hole 全球央行年会的主题是《变迁中的劳动力市场: 人口、生产率与宏观政策》,Powell 的演讲围绕劳动力市场讨论美国经 济与货币政策。总体来看,Powell 对美国经济的描述偏鸽派,降低了 9 月降息门槛,体现在对就业与通胀数据的描述上,其在演讲的开始便表 示,"通胀的上行风险已经减弱","但失业率上升了近一个百分点,这 一发展在历史上从未在经济衰退之外发生过"。具体来看,增长方面, Powell 强调就业增长的放缓(过去三个月均新增非农就业仅 35,000 人, 远低于 2024 年的每月 168,000 人),劳务市场处于均衡状态,但这种奇 怪的均衡 (" a curious kind of balance ") 是来自供需双弱(移民政策减少 了劳动力供给,进而降低"盈亏平衡"就业水平),因此就业的下行风险 在上升,若风险坐实,则可引发失业率与裁员的快速上涨 ( ...
JacksonHole全球央行会议鲍威尔讲话点评:颠覆7月,全面转鸽
CMS· 2025-08-23 12:07
证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 08 月 23 日 颠覆 7 月,全面转鸽 再往后看,对等关税和 232 关税似乎都在服务同一个目的——在美国本地投资 建厂,无论现实落地难度多大,至少在中期选举之前会进一步渲染这一过程。 今明两年美国关税收入约在 3000 亿美元/年,可至少缓解 1 个百分点左右的财 政赤字率压力,不排除明年中期选举之前特朗普再度推出新的法案提振选情, 近期共和党内也出现越来越多这样的声音。因此,美股泡沫化过程或将持续至 明年底,调整仍是机会。 1)通胀:通胀仍有上行风险,但关税通胀的基准假设仍然是一次性的。 点评报告 相关报告 1、《关注基建支出的回补效应 ——7 月财政数据点评》2025- 08-20 2、《如何看 7 月经济数据?— —2025 年 7 月经济数据点评》 2025-08-15 —Jackson Hole 全球央行会议鲍威尔讲话点评 频率:每月 事件:当地时间 2025 年 8 月 22 日,美联储主席鲍威尔出席 Jackson Hole 全球 央行会议并发表讲话。 本次 Jackson Hole 会议鲍威尔一改 7 月议息会议鹰派表态"通胀风险权重高于 就 ...
外部不确定性犹存,人民币保持韧性
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:58
外部不确定性犹存, 人民币保持韧性 华泰期货研究院 2025年08月22日 蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人: 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率下行 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示出人民币的升值趋势,Put端波动率高于Call端。 ◆ 美元兑人民币期权波动率持续回落,市场对美元兑人民币未来波动性的预期减弱。 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源: 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 3 4 5 6 7 8 3M 2025/08/20 3M 2025/06/27 3M 2025/03/28 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2023-04 2023-10 2024-04 2024-10 2025-04 20250819(%) 20250812(%) 20250722(%) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 一月 三月 六月 一年 本周新交所美元兑人民币期货升贴水(-) 本周银行远期升贴水(-) 本周美中利差 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2 ...
时报论坛丨美联储会降息吗?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 01:01
Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is anticipated to be a critical policy statement, influencing global asset pricing [1][2][3] - Current market expectations indicate an over 85% probability of a rate cut in September, but the unexpected 0.9% month-on-month increase in July PPI has raised inflation concerns [1][2] - Powell faces the challenge of balancing persistent inflation against economic growth pressures, with the recent PPI increase driven by rising energy prices and supply chain costs [1][2][3] Group 2 - Market participants are looking for clear signals from Powell regarding the initiation of a rate cut cycle, while also being cautious about inflation uncertainties [2][3] - If Powell emphasizes data dependency and shows caution regarding PPI fluctuations, it may suggest a modest rate cut of only 25 basis points [2][3] - Conversely, if he downplays short-term inflation volatility and focuses on cooling labor markets and slowing economic momentum, a more aggressive easing signal could emerge [2][3] Group 3 - The implications of Powell's speech are significant for emerging markets, as it will directly impact capital flows, currency stability, and economic growth prospects [3][4] - A clear signal of a rate cut could lead to three benefits for emerging markets: narrowing interest rate differentials, a weaker dollar, and reduced financing costs for dollar-denominated debt [3][4] - However, if Powell conveys a hawkish stance on inflation, emerging markets may face challenges such as capital outflows, currency depreciation, and worsening growth outlooks [4] Group 4 - Investors should focus not only on the likelihood of a rate cut but also on Powell's assessment of inflation resilience and growth risks, as well as the Fed's independence amid political pressures [5] - Understanding the underlying logic of the Fed's policy decisions is crucial for navigating asset pricing in an uncertain environment [5]
原油周报:关注美俄会谈结果-20250818
Zi Jin Tian Feng Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 09:38
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the oil industry is neutral according to the core view [4]. Group 2: Core View - Macroeconomically, after the release of US CPI and PPI data in July, the market restarted the interest - rate cut trading process. The report maintains that the inflation caused by tariffs is a "one - time shock", and there is still room for interest - rate cuts in the future, with stronger support at the lower boundary in Q3 and Q4. The volatility of crude oil remains low due to the low - volatility trends of US stocks, US bonds and other dollar - denominated assets [4]. - The Asian region's capacity to absorb increased Middle - Eastern oil production has slowed. The structure and monthly spreads are pricing in future supply surpluses. The impact of the Russia - US talks on Russian oil exports is mainly emotional, and future focus will return to Iran. The downstream sector maintains high operation rates, but with diesel weakening and refinery seasonal maintenance approaching, the spot discount is likely to narrow. The diesel fundamentals are not likely to see further significant contradictions, and future fundamental contradictions will return to the supply side [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Industry Factors - **OPEC Production**: OPEC increased production in September. The Russia - US talks have limited impact on Russian oil exports, with more of an emotional influence [5]. - **SPR**: The US SPR is replenishing at a rate of 30,000 - 50,000 barrels per day, mainly through slow and low - cost stockpiling [5]. - **Geopolitics & Sanctions**: The market is pricing in a negative outcome for the Russia - US meeting in Alaska. The meeting's possible results include a peace agreement (low probability), negotiation breakdown with intensified sanctions (supply disruption risk is limited), and a limited cease - fire or no agreement (highest probability, with a negative impact on structure and price) [5][15]. - **Shale Oil**: Last week's production was 1.333 million barrels per day, with the number of rigs remaining at 410. There is a downward trend in the number of rigs, which will gradually lead to a decrease in production [5]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - **Macroeconomic Impact**: The release of US CPI and PPI data in July restarted the interest - rate cut trading process. The report believes that the impact of tariffs on prices is limited, and the direction of the impact is certain despite possible rhythm deviations [4][10]. - **Interest - Rate Cut Expectations**: The market's expectation for interest - rate cuts within the year has increased. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in September is over 90%, and there are expectations for two interest - rate cuts within the year (in September and October, 25 basis points each). The volatility of risk assets will remain low as market participants adapt to Trump's "TACO" mode [13]. 3. Supply - Demand Factors - **Supply**: The balance sheet shows the production and demand forecasts from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, with adjustments made to some data. Overall, there are periods of supply surplus and deficit [6]. - **Demand**: Diesel cracking spreads have weakened, and the spot discount shows a marginal weakening trend. China's capacity to absorb increased oil production has slowed, and as refineries enter the seasonal maintenance period, the fundamental pressure on the market is emerging [5][16]. 4. Market Sentiment and Positioning - **WTI Positioning**: In the week of August 5th, WTI long positions decreased by 13,160 contracts, short positions increased by 2,887 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 16,050 contracts [46]. - **Brent Positioning**: In the week of August 5th, Brent long positions decreased by 23,680 contracts, short positions decreased by 4,125 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 19,560 contracts [50].
宏观周度观察:美俄短期风险下降,市场聚焦定价美联储降息幅度-20250818
Guo Lian Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 03:06
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the market is focusing on pricing the rate cut amplitude. Inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [3][4][13]. - China's "dual discount interest" policy has been implemented to boost domestic demand, and the probability of a domestic interest rate cut in the third quarter has further decreased [5][6]. - China's economic data in July was affected by multiple factors, but it is still likely to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5% [8][10][12]. - In the short - term, geopolitical risk premiums have temporarily ended, but there are still persistent impacts. A - shares are in a bull market pattern, but the index may experience short - term corrections. Bond prices will be in a low - level shock state [15][16]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Macroeconomic Observation 1.1 Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Fed Rate Cut Expectations - US CPI in July was slightly lower than expected, but core CPI reached a new high for the second time this year. PPI exceeded expectations, with a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, the highest since February [3]. - The impact of tariffs on commodity prices is gradually emerging, and the upward pressure on commodity inflation will continue to accumulate. The price of the service industry in July significantly contributed to inflation, and the pressure on CPI to rise in the coming months is increasing [3][4]. - Although inflation data shows signs of an uptick, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September. The market is focusing on pricing the rate cut amplitude, and inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [4]. 1.2 Implementation of the "Dual Discount Interest" Policy to Expand Domestic Demand - The "dual discount interest" policy of personal consumer loan discount interest and service industry business entity loan discount interest has been launched, which forms a synergy to stimulate consumption with other policies. It helps improve the efficiency of fiscal funds [5]. - In the future, the policy may continue to explore the synergy between fiscal funds and financial resources, and the weight of structural tools and special fiscal policies may increase. The probability of a domestic interest rate cut in the third quarter has further decreased [5][6]. 1.3 China's Economic Situation in July - China's economic data in July showed a contraction in both supply and demand, with a more obvious slowdown in domestic demand. Consumption recovery momentum weakened marginally, investment remained weak, and financial data also showed slow demand - side repair [8][10][11]. - Although China's economy is affected by multiple temporary factors in the short - term, it is still likely to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5% [12]. 1.4 Next Week's Key Points - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the market is pricing the rate cut amplitude. Inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [13]. - The short - term geopolitical risk premium from the US - Russia summit has ended, but there are still persistent impacts. A - shares are in a bull market pattern, but the index may experience short - term corrections. Bond prices will be in a low - level shock state [15][16]. 2. Domestic Key Events and Important Economic Data - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to maintain liquidity, promote reasonable price increases, and release consumption potential. This week, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 4149 billion yuan [17]. - The "dual discount interest" policy has been introduced, with a 1 - percentage - point annual discount interest rate. The personal consumer loan discount interest policy has a cumulative discount interest cap of 3000 yuan per borrower, and the service industry business entity loan discount interest policy has a maximum loan scale of 1 million yuan per household [17]. - China's deflation pressure eased slightly in July. CPI was flat year - on - year, PPI was negative for 34 consecutive months, but the month - on - month decline narrowed. Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the highest in 17 months [17]. - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The "national subsidy" funds of 138 billion yuan were issued, and the automobile sales volume increased by 14.7% year - on - year [17][18]. - From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year. The sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed overall [18]. - China and the US suspended the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days. As of the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6% year - on - year, and M0 increased by 11.8% year - on - year [18]. 3. Overseas Key Events and Important Economic Data - In the US, the PPI in July increased significantly, with a 3.3% year - on - year increase. CPI was flat compared to the previous month, slightly lower than expected, while core CPI reached a five - month high, higher than expected [19]. - After the release of the US CPI data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose to 90.1%. Trump nominated E·J·Anthony as the next director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and expanded the list of candidates for the Fed chairman [19]. - The EU plans to formulate the 19th round of sanctions against Russia and provide more military assistance to Ukraine. The Japanese central bank is under pressure to abandon an inflation indicator to pave the way for an interest rate hike [19]. - Trump said he would not impose tariffs on gold. The US Treasury Secretary said that the trade team will meet with China in the next two or three months. The US - Russia summit has not reached an agreement but is close [20]. 4. Next Week's Key Data/Events - On August 18, the US will release the NAHB housing market index for August. - On August 20, China will release the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) for August, and the eurozone will release the CPI and core CPI year - on - year and month - on - month for July, as well as the preliminary PMI values for August. - On August 21, the US will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16, the Markit manufacturing, service, and composite PMI preliminary values for August, and the year - on - year total of existing home sales in July. - From August 22 to 23, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held (to be determined). [21]
详解美国7月CPI背后的关税阴影,“消费者还将看到价格进一步上涨”
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 10:15
Group 1: Inflation Data - The core CPI in the US rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, marking the largest increase since January [1] - The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with falling gasoline prices helping to moderate overall inflation, but rising prices for other goods indicate the impact of tariffs [1][3] - Excluding food and energy, the prices of major commodities rose by 0.2% for the second consecutive month in July [3] Group 2: Price Increases in Specific Sectors - Shoe prices surged by 1.4% in July, the highest monthly increase in over four years, following a 0.7% rise in June [3] - Furniture and bedding prices increased by 0.9% in July, while outdoor equipment prices rose by 2.2%, the highest level in over two years [3] - Prices for toys saw a slight increase of 0.2% in July after larger increases in previous months [5] Group 3: Tariff Impact on Consumer Prices - The tariffs are expected to lead to significant price increases for clothing and textiles, with estimates suggesting a 40% rise in shoe prices and a 38% rise in clothing prices by 2025 [3] - The average tariff rate in the US is projected to reach 17.3%, the highest since 1935, with expectations that it could exceed 18% [7] - Economists predict that the overall inflation rate in the US will rise to around 3.5% by the end of the year [6] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be gradual rather than sudden, leading to a slow decline in purchasing power [8] - The overall effect of tariffs on prices may be more of a one-time adjustment rather than a sustained increase [9] - Financial markets have shown sensitivity to economic growth and inflation data, with recent weak labor market data contributing to market reactions [10]
美联储或在9月重启降息,但关税通胀风险依然存在
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 04:48
智通财经记者 | 刘婷 美国劳工统计局周二晚发布的数据显示,7月通胀表现相对平稳,由于能源价格跌幅扩大,物价未进一步反弹。分析人 士表示,这意味着9月降息的障碍大大降低,美联储或在下月重启降息。 劳工统计局数据显示,7月,消费者价格指数(CPI)同比增长2.7%,涨幅与上月持平,且低于市场预期的2.8%,环比 上涨0.2%,和市场预期一致,但涨幅比6月收窄0.1个百分点。 分析师指出,能源价格是美国7月CPI的主要拖累项。当月,能源价格同比下降1.6%,降幅较6月扩大0.8个百分点;环比 下跌1.1%,6月为上涨0.9%。 通胀报告发布后,市场降息预期大幅提升。截至北京时间周三11:00左右,芝加哥商品交易所FedWatch显示的9月降息25 个基点的概率升至94.3%。 美联储在7月的议息会议上将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%不变。这是美联储连续第五次决定维持利率不 变。去年9月至12月,美联储连续三次降息,合计降幅100个基点。 Brown也表示,尽管关税影响仍微乎其微,但服务价格加速上涨,预示7月核心PCE平减指数可能再度超出目标。 凯投宏观北美副首席经济学家Stephen Brown ...
降息稳了?!美国,重大发布!美股高开,美元跳水
证券时报· 2025-08-12 13:50
Core Viewpoint - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that inflation has not worsened, leading to market speculation about a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][12]. Economic Indicators - The CPI for July met expectations, with the overall index showing stability [5]. - The housing index increased by 0.2%, contributing significantly to the CPI rise, while food prices remained flat and energy prices fell by 1.1%, with gasoline prices decreasing by 2.2% [6]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3%, up from 0.2% in June, with notable increases in healthcare, airfare, entertainment, household goods, and used cars, while lodging and communication indices declined [6]. Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock futures rose, with major indices opening higher, reflecting investor optimism regarding potential rate cuts [1][2]. - The probability of a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased to 87%, up from 57% the previous month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool [13]. Inflation Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the July CPI data does not indicate excessive inflation, supporting the feasibility of a rate cut in September [7]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is seen as gradual, with some economists noting that inflation pressures appear manageable, which is a positive signal for the Federal Reserve [9]. - Deutsche Bank forecasts a divergence in short-term core inflation trends, with a three-month annualized rate expected to rise to 2.7%, while the six-month rate may drop to 2.4% due to price increases in tariff-sensitive goods [10]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to have sufficient confidence to resume rate cuts in September as long as inflation remains under control [7][12]. - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicated that the actual trajectory of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation may be closer to the 2% target than reported, suggesting that the risks of sustained inflation from tariffs are diminishing [13].
Grainger Q2 Revenue Jumps 5.6%
The Motley Fool· 2025-08-05 19:11
Core Insights - W.W. Grainger reported Q2 2025 sales of $4.55 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $4.53 billion, while earnings per share (EPS) were $9.97, slightly below expectations of $10.07 [1][2] - The company revised its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS and margin outlook downward, despite strong growth in its Endless Assortment segment, which saw a 19.7% year-over-year sales increase [1][14] Financial Performance - Revenue (GAAP) increased by 5.6% year-over-year, driven primarily by the Endless Assortment unit [2][5] - Gross profit margin decreased to 38.5%, and operating margin fell to 14.9%, attributed to higher costs from U.S. tariffs on imports [2][7] - Free cash flow was reported at $202 million, reflecting increased capital expenditures [2][8] Business Overview - W.W. Grainger operates as a major distributor of industrial supplies and MRO solutions, serving over 4.5 million clients globally [3] - The company employs a dual model: High-Touch Solutions for complex procurement and the Endless Assortment platform for simpler transactions [3][4] Segment Performance - The Endless Assortment segment, including Zoro and MonotaRO, experienced significant growth, with sales up 19.7% [5][10] - High-Touch Solutions North America saw slower growth at 2.5%, with profitability impacted by tariff-related inflation [6][11] Strategic Focus - The company emphasizes technology-driven enhancements and supply chain resilience, with ongoing investments in eProcurement tools [4][12] - Management highlighted the importance of managing input costs and adapting pricing strategies to maintain profitability [4][12] Guidance and Future Outlook - Full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS is now expected to range from $38.50 to $40.25, down from previous estimates [14] - Sales growth outlook for 2025 has been raised to 4.4% to 5.9%, indicating continued top-line momentum despite lower profitability expectations [14][15] - Capital spending is projected to increase to $0.55 billion to $0.65 billion for fiscal 2025 [16]