整体来看，鉴于决策者对美国通胀居高不下的担忧，市场普遍预期美联储至少将维持利率不变至6月， 联邦基金期货市场预计今年降息幅度仅约53个基点，相当于两次25基点的降息，且首次降息可能要等到 7月或9月。这说明降息周期仍在，只是时间早晚的问题，故此，金价仍处于看涨周期中。 另外，PDR黄金ETF持仓数据显示，截至2月25日，全球最大黄金ETF——SPDR Gold Trust的持仓量增 至1097.62吨，较前一交易日增加3.43吨，创下2021年2月以来新高。这一增持信号，充分体现了机构资 金对黄金长期价值的坚定看好。 所以，年内的黄金市场，正处于关税通胀与伊朗核危机交织的黄金窗口期。短期内，春季可能出现盘 整，但任何跌幅和调整都将被不确定性迅速填补。在全球不确定性持续扩散的背景下，黄金作为终极避 险资产与信任锚点的长期价值依然突出，年内金价将继续维持牛市行情，未来一年，随着美联储宽松政 策、美元区间偏弱波动，以及地缘风险难以在短期内彻底消退，黄金仍有望冲击6000美元关口上方。 日图，金价今日多头动力减弱，但也维持在5日均线上方，下方也有众多均线支撑，附图指标也偏向看 涨信号发展，暗示前景偏向继续走强的概率较 ...

今日周四(2月26日)亚盘时段，现货黄金受避险资金推动涨幅达1.1%，盘中报每盎司5205.14美元;4月交 割的美国黄金期货盘中上涨0.9%至5224.60美元/盎司。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 市场分析指出，黄金短期技术面走势愈发偏多，吸引技术面交易员再度入场做多，而地缘政治的不确定 性与关税通胀风险，进一步为黄金提供了双重避险支撑。 一方面，美国于2月24日起正式开征10%的临时全球进口关税，白宫官员更透露，特朗普政府正计划将 这一税率进一步提高至15%。关税政策与高油价将共同推升通胀，叠加地缘冲突的潜在风险，投资者纷 纷选择黄金进行对冲，成为推动金价走高的重要原因。特朗普在国情咨文中还称，几乎所有国家和企业 都希望维持与美国现有的关税和投资协议，这也让市场对关税政策的长期化产生担忧。 另一方面，美伊地缘政治紧张局势持续升级，成为避险需求的另一大推手。尽管伊朗与美国定于2月26 日在瑞士日内瓦举行第三轮核谈判，美国副总统万斯也表示对此次谈判抱有希望，希望通过外交途径解 决问题，但美方同时并未排除动武可能。特朗普此前更阐述了可能对伊朗采取军事行动的理由，称不会 允许伊朗拥有核武器，而 ...

前言： 技术重要，纪律重要，资金管理重要，系统重要，心态重要，这是一个成功操盘手必不可缺少的部分， 专业的事情交给专业的人去做，而你只要做一个选择。成功有二条路，一条是自我摸索，另一条是跟实 战老师操作；第一条路自我摸索时间长，还不一定有成绩，金晟富不希望投资者拿着头破血流的结果说 这就是自我惨痛的教训，而真正有智慧的人会借力使力不费力，如果你还在亏损，如果你还没有办法让 自己账户获利，如果你还在迷茫，刚好你需要，刚好我们专业，合作就是这么爽快的事情。 空单策略： 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四（2月26日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于5175美元/盎司附近。周三，现货黄金价格 上涨0.4%，收报至5164美元/盎司附近，盘中一度飙升1.5%触及5217.63美元的高位，关税通胀压力与 地缘政治阴云共同发酵的结果，投资者纷纷涌入黄金这一传统避险资产，寻求对冲不确定性的庇护。特 朗普在国情咨文演讲中强调，几乎所有国家和企业都希望维持与华盛顿现有的关税及投资协议，但现实 中，政策执行的波动性已让贸易领域弥漫着浓厚的不确定性。交易员们正密切评估这一新机制的影响， 而美国贸 ...

The Supreme Court's Tariff Ruling and the New Risk RegimeOn Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant the president authority to impose tariffs, striking down the reciprocal, fentanyl, and immigrationrelated regimes enacted under the law. President Trump responded with a new blanket tariff — first 10%, then 15% — reviving trade policy uncertainty with implications for both markets and economic activity.The Trade Policy Uncertainty Index, whic ...

NISA Investment Advisors的Stephen Douglass表示，与关税相关的通胀中，约有三分之一的压力可能仍 将在未来几个月逐步传导至经济。这使得经济有望保持良好表现，同时令美联储在一段时间内维持按兵 不动。"我们正重新回到实现软着陆的轨道上，"他说，"劳动力市场将趋于稳定，关税通胀的最后余波 将在今年上半年传导完毕。"他预计，下半年商品通胀将降至零以下，从而为美联储在晚于市场预期的 时间点恢复降息创造空间。"我们对今年的判断是，9月和12月各降息一次。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储米兰：截至目前，我们尚未看到显著的关税通胀。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Weakening in a fluctuating manner [1] - Alumina: Trading in a range [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - It also provides the trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, with aluminum and aluminum alloy at 0 (neutral), and alumina at -1 (weakly bearish) [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - Shanghai Aluminum main contract: The closing price was 23,955, down 1685 from T - 5; trading volume was 451,208, down 485,903 from T - 5; open interest was 224,756, down 138,077 from T - 5 [1]. - LME Aluminum 3M: The closing price was 3059, down 205 from T - 5; trading volume was 24,872, down 22,559 from T - 5; LME注销仓单占比 was 11.01%, up 5.90% from T - 5 [1]. Alumina - Shanghai Alumina main contract: The closing price was 2824, up 13 from T - 5; trading volume was 420,118, down 453,523 from T - 5; open interest was 375,698, down 91,018 from T - 5 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy main contract: The closing price was 22,595, down 1190 from T - 5; trading volume was 8206, down 15,184 from T - 5; open interest was 4530, down 4315 from T - 5 [1]. Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 82.90 million tons, up 3.30 million tons from T - 5; the SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt was 15.03 million tons, up 0.75 million tons from T - 5; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 49.52 million tons, down 0.48 million tons from T - 5 [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 7524.75, up 470.00 from T - 1 [1]. Alumina - The domestic average alumina price was 2646, down 2 from T - 5; the alumina price at Lianyungang's CIF was 330 US dollars/ton, unchanged from T - 5 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 theoretical profit was 380, down 60 from T - 1; the Baotai ADC12 price was 23,200, up 200 from T - 1 [1]. Others - The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2275, down 50 from T - 1 [1].

来源：滚动播报 1、在多位中东领导人紧急游说特朗普政府放弃退出谈判的威胁后，原定于6日举行的美伊核谈判计划得 以恢复，谈判将在阿曼举行。此次僵局引发了整个中东地区的担忧，担心特朗普会转而采取军事行动。 2、谷歌公司2025年营收首次突破4000亿美元，Q4营收同比增长18%，AI技术驱动核心业务全面增长。 全年净利润1321.70亿美元，同比增长32%。 3、AMD收跌17.31%，创2017年以来的最大单日跌幅，成 交218.17亿美元。 4、美联储周三宣布，在2026年压力测试周期内不会调整大型银行的资本水平，因美 联储正考虑对这项年度测试进行若干调整以提升透明度。 5、SpaceX已与美国以外的银行就其首次公开 募股（IPO）举行会谈。 6、美国平等就业机会委员会周三称，正在调查耐克涉嫌通过多元化政策歧视 白人的行为。 7、美国财长贝森特周三表示，他在2024年1月，也就是美国总统特朗普赢得大选之前， 曾与其对冲基金Key Square向合作伙伴称"关税会带来通胀"，而这一判断是错误的。 8、纳斯达克考虑 在SpaceX等大型IPO之前推出新的"快速入指"规则。 9、俄外交部：俄美不再受《新削减战略武器 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious bullish view on pure benzene and styrene, suggesting waiting for low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Aromatics continue a relatively strong trend, but there is a need to guard against callback risks. The market situation is affected by factors such as inventory in the industrial chain, especially downstream inventory consumption [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 27, the total inventory of styrene in the mainstream storage areas of East China's Jiangsu Province fluctuated in the range of 94,500 - 123,300 tons. The inventory in major ports of East China remained at a historically low level, and spot liquidity was still tight [1] - As of the week of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of EPS was 58.71%, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%. In the off - season of downstream demand, merchants were cautious about chasing up prices, and the overall trading atmosphere was poor [1] - The capacity utilization rate of PS was 57.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. Although some devices resumed production, others reduced production lines. Industry supply was temporarily stable, market shipments were average, and inventory started to rise [1] - The capacity utilization rate of ABS was 66.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. Manufacturer supply was still very tight, mainly controlling shipments. After the holiday, market inquiries increased, trading volume expanded, and prices rebounded. In addition, the capacity utilization rate of UPR was 38%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the start - up rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 82.92%, remaining stable month - on - month [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The Fed's January interest - rate meeting decided to keep the interest rate in the 3.5 - 3.75% range. Milan and Waller supported a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut. Powell reiterated that the interest rate was at the upper end of the neutral range, and policy had no pre - set route, relying on data. He also said that if tariff inflation peaked and then declined, it indicated that policy could be relaxed [2] - The decline in EIA gasoline inventory in the week ending January 23 was the largest since the week of November 7, 2025, and it was the 11th consecutive week of increase. The domestic crude - oil production in that week was the lowest since the week of October 31, 2025 [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene and styrene had a slight intraday pullback, maintaining a cautious bullish view. Attention should be paid to inventory changes in the industrial chain, especially downstream inventory consumption. If inventory continued to decline, there was room for further upward movement; otherwise, the probability of a decline was high [3]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks continued to lead, closing up 0.51% with a trading volume of 332 billion [1] - The FOMC meeting minutes indicated that the federal funds rate target range remains at 3.5% to 3.75%, with a voting result of 10 to 2 against a rate cut [1] - Oil prices are rising due to ongoing tensions in Iran, with WTI crude touching $65 per barrel, up 2.83%, marking a new high since September 2025 [1] Gold Market - International gold prices reached a historical high, with London gold nearing $5,600, leading to a rise in domestic gold jewelry prices to around 1,700 yuan per gram [2] - Despite the price increase, gold retail stocks did not see a corresponding rise, with concerns about potential profit-taking if prices decline [2] Commodities and Metals - Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange approached $14,000 per ton, a historical high, benefiting companies like Jiangxi Copper, which rose over 6% [3] - Nickel resources are rebounding, with Zhongwei New Materials securing significant nickel ore supply and establishing a nickel raw material industrial base in Indonesia [3] Real Estate Sector - The Chinese government is encouraging local policies to digest existing real estate stock, leading to a surge in real estate stocks, with companies like Agile Group rising nearly 41% [4] - Real estate brokerage firms also saw gains, with Beike rising over 7% [4] Consumer Goods - The liquor market is experiencing price increases, with Moutai's original box price rising to 1,610 yuan per bottle [4] - There are rumors of Kweichow Moutai participating in SpaceX's Series A financing, which the company denied, yet it contributed to a surge in liquor stocks [5] Financial Performance - Dongfang Zhenxuan reported a 5.7% increase in total revenue to 2.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 239 million yuan, up 14.5% [6] - Nine Dragons Paper expects a profit of 2.15 billion to 2.25 billion yuan for the six months ending December 31, 2025, a significant increase from 680 million yuan the previous year [6] Automotive Sector - The State Council released a plan to accelerate the development of service consumption in the automotive sector, which is expected to benefit automotive dealers like Meidong Automotive and Zhongsheng Holdings [7] Individual Stock Highlights - Sunny Optical Technology expects a net profit of approximately 4.589 billion to 4.723 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 70% to 75% [8] - The growth is attributed to high-end smartphone camera specifications and improved product mix, despite a recent decline in stock price due to fluctuations in smartphone demand [8]