Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a divergence in market behavior, where while the US stock market appears lively due to AI hype, funds are quietly moving towards dollar arbitrage, indicating a lack of confidence in the sustainability of the stock market rally [1][3] - The S&P 500 index has risen over one-third since its low in April, but the risk premium has turned negative, suggesting that investors are taking on high risks with expected returns lower than risk-free government bonds [3][5] - Dollar arbitrage is gaining traction as a strategy, where investors borrow low-interest currencies like the yen and Swiss franc to invest in dollar assets, with expected returns surpassing those from European equities and Chinese bonds [5][7] Group 2 - The persistence of US inflation, which stood at 3% in September, is a key factor supporting the stability of dollar arbitrage returns, as it delays potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][7] - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank are optimistic about the strength of the dollar, with expectations that it will remain a leading currency for arbitrage opportunities [7] - However, dollar arbitrage is not without risks, particularly concerning potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy and unpredictable market volatility, which could undermine the advantages of this strategy [9][10][12] Group 3 - Global foreign direct investment is declining, prompting capital to seek safer investments, aligning with the trend towards dollar arbitrage as investors shift from chasing high returns to securing stable ones [14] - For ordinary investors, simpler investment options like dollar-denominated financial products or dollar index-related products are recommended instead of complex arbitrage strategies [15] - The article concludes that the fading excitement in the US stock market is likely, and while dollar arbitrage may become a new focus, caution is advised regarding potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy and market fluctuations [17]