通过更广泛的资产配置来应对不确定性。 经历了2025年的罕见普涨行情后，2026年市场进入新一轮资产配置博弈。去年，全球主要股指均录得正 收益，中国资产表现尤为亮眼，贵金属市场也迎来火爆走势。 站在全球经济与市场周期的关键节点，主要经济体增长动能切换、货币政策取向变化以及地缘格局重 塑，正共同塑造新一轮资产定价逻辑。渣打银行日前发布《2026年全球市场展望》并表示，随着美国经 济"软着陆"概率上升、全球贸易紧张局势边际缓和，以及人工智能持续推动生产率提升，2026年风险资 产有望整体跑赢，但市场分化将更加显著，投资者需要通过更广泛的资产配置来应对不确定性。 渣打认为，中国可能在2026年推出更果断的刺激政策，"十五五"规划建议的发布将进一步明确先进技术 投资方向，从而改善企业盈利预期。在A股及H股方面，渣打认为市场估值仍显著低于全球水平，亚太 整体对全球股票存在折让。若美股资金出现流出，小体量市场如A股可能展现更高弹性。A股可关注政 策支持的硬科技及部分消费板块，H股重点关注科技、通信服务及高股息国企。 相较之下，欧洲（除英国）和日本股票被下调至低配。此外，科技股仍是市场关注主线，但投资逻辑需 从"讲三五年故 ...

这篇国际评论，主要来分析下在美国降息日本加息的复杂经济环境下，对中国老百姓来讲，钱应该放在哪里比较保险？ 2025年末的全球金融市场，正被一场罕见的"政策对弈"搅动——日本央行终结十余年负利率，将政策利率上调25个基点；美联储则开启降息周期，联邦基金 利率下调25个基点。 一紧一松的背后，是全球资本的大迁徙，更直接关系到普通人的股票、存款与钱包。 这场变局的根源，藏在两国截然不同的经济困境里 日本加息绝非心血来潮，长期负利率让日元成了全球最廉价的"钱袋子"，借1亿日元年利息仅数万日元，催生出规模高达9.3万亿至20万亿美元的"日元套利 交易"。 从掌握家庭财权的"渡边太太"到巴菲特这样的巨头，都靠借入日元投资海外资产牟利。 但日元贬值至157的低位，后续据传已经开始慢慢走强，但形势也不容乐观，让输入性通胀压垮了日本民生，10年期国债收益率升至1.970%的压力，最终迫 使央行按下加息键。 美国的降息则是"预防式救市"，2025年8月非农就业仅新增2.2万人，失业率升至4.3%的五年新高，职位空缺跌至52个月最低。尽管通胀仍略高于2%目标， 但美联储判断这是关税冲击的短期现象，为防就业市场恶化，选择小步降息支撑 ...

12月份美联储降息预期升温，这导致未来美元存款利率或进一步下降。金融机构正抢抓"窗口期"，加大 力度营销美元存款产品，近期银行推出的多款美元存款产品利率处于3%左右。与此同时，美元理财也 相对升温。 与此同时，美元理财也于近期升温。例如，汇华理财近日发文表示，当前市场对美联储12月降息的预期 攀升，多位美联储官员近期密集释放鸽派信号，叠加中长期降息通道的明确导向，此刻正是布局美元理 财的黄金窗口期。现在入手等于在利率相对高位的窗口，提前锁定当前具有吸引力的票息收益机会。作 为与本土资产相关性较低的资产类别，美元资产能够有效分散单一币种、单一经济体所带来的系统性风 险，提升资产组合的整体抗波动能力与长期稳健性。 未来利率或继续下行 北京财富管理行业协会特约研究员杨海平表示，影响国内商业银行美元存款利率最主要的因素是美联储 货币政策。美联储12月降息，市场预期概率较高，预计美元存款利率将进一步下降。 《中国经营报》记者采访了解到，从趋势上看，未来美联储降息通道已基本确立，2026年或持续降息， 所以总体上看，未来美元存款利率呈现下降趋势。 美元存款营销升温 银行机构近期集中发布美元存款产品推广信息。 例如，12月 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the pitfalls of investing in dollar-denominated financial products, highlighting how exchange rate fluctuations can erode returns for ordinary investors [1][4][6]. Group 1: Investment Performance - Many investors were attracted to dollar investments due to high annualized returns, initially around 5%, but these have since dropped to below 4% [1][4]. - The dollar-to-RMB exchange rate has significantly declined, from around 7.3 to 7, leading to losses for those who invested in dollar products [1][4]. - Some investors have reported substantial losses, with one individual losing over 800 dollars after investing 50,000 dollars in financial products [4][6]. Group 2: Market Trends - The dollar index has fallen from 110 to 98, marking a decline of over 10%, the worst performance in 40 years [1][4]. - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have further pressured dollar-denominated investment yields, with projections suggesting rates could drop below 3.5% [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Experts advise that investors should not solely focus on yield but also consider exchange rate implications when investing in dollar products [6][7]. - For those with short-term dollar needs, such as studying abroad or travel, dollar investments may still provide some risk mitigation; however, for pure investment purposes, alternatives like gold or A-share funds may be more prudent [6][7]. - Recommendations include staggered currency purchases to lock in exchange rates and selecting products with automatic redemption clauses to avoid losses from greed [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a divergence in market behavior, where while the US stock market appears lively due to AI hype, funds are quietly moving towards dollar arbitrage, indicating a lack of confidence in the sustainability of the stock market rally [1][3] - The S&P 500 index has risen over one-third since its low in April, but the risk premium has turned negative, suggesting that investors are taking on high risks with expected returns lower than risk-free government bonds [3][5] - Dollar arbitrage is gaining traction as a strategy, where investors borrow low-interest currencies like the yen and Swiss franc to invest in dollar assets, with expected returns surpassing those from European equities and Chinese bonds [5][7] Group 2 - The persistence of US inflation, which stood at 3% in September, is a key factor supporting the stability of dollar arbitrage returns, as it delays potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][7] - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank are optimistic about the strength of the dollar, with expectations that it will remain a leading currency for arbitrage opportunities [7] - However, dollar arbitrage is not without risks, particularly concerning potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy and unpredictable market volatility, which could undermine the advantages of this strategy [9][10][12] Group 3 - Global foreign direct investment is declining, prompting capital to seek safer investments, aligning with the trend towards dollar arbitrage as investors shift from chasing high returns to securing stable ones [14] - For ordinary investors, simpler investment options like dollar-denominated financial products or dollar index-related products are recommended instead of complex arbitrage strategies [15] - The article concludes that the fading excitement in the US stock market is likely, and while dollar arbitrage may become a new focus, caution is advised regarding potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy and market fluctuations [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in USD deposit rates and the increasing attractiveness of USD wealth management products, particularly in the context of recent Federal Reserve interest rate changes [1][3][14]. Group 1: USD Deposit Rates - USD deposit rates have experienced significant volatility, rising from around 3% to approximately 5.5% during the Fed's rate hike cycle, but have since decreased to below 4% following the recent rate cuts [3][5][6]. - As of late September, some banks are offering USD deposit rates as high as 3.85% for a one-year term, which is considered competitive in the current market [2][5]. - The decline in USD deposit rates is expected to continue, with some banks already adjusting their rates downward in response to the Fed's actions [5][6]. Group 2: Wealth Management Products - Wealth management products, particularly those denominated in USD, have seen annualized returns exceeding 5% from 2023 to 2024, significantly outperforming traditional deposit rates [1][9]. - The average yield of USD wealth management products has been declining, with recent statistics showing average annualized returns of 3.96% for one-month and three-month periods, down from higher levels in the previous year [10][11]. - The design of wealth management products, including features like profit-taking clauses, has led to some products being terminated early due to market conditions, impacting overall returns [11]. Group 3: Investor Considerations - Investors, like Ms. Pan, are weighing their options between renewing USD deposits and investing in wealth management products, considering factors such as interest rates and currency exchange risks [6][10]. - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD has raised concerns about potential currency losses for investors converting USD back to RMB [7][10]. - Economic forecasts suggest that the Fed may continue to lower rates, which could further influence the attractiveness of both USD deposits and wealth management products [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in dollar deposit rates in China, particularly in the context of recent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and the implications for investors like Ms. Pan who are considering their options for dollar deposits and investments [2][11]. Summary by Sections Dollar Deposit Rates - The current annualized interest rate for a one-year dollar deposit is 3.85%, which is considered relatively high in the market [1][2]. - Dollar deposit rates have experienced a "roller coaster" effect, rising to around 5.5% during the dollar interest rate hike cycle and subsequently declining to below 4% in the current rate cut cycle [2][3]. Investor Behavior - Investors, including Ms. Pan, are seeking optimal placements for their assets as dollar deposit rates decline [2][4]. - Ms. Pan's experience reflects a broader trend where investors are weighing the benefits of renewing dollar deposits against potential currency exchange risks and the attractiveness of dollar-denominated financial products [5][8]. Market Dynamics - Following the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, some banks have quickly adjusted their dollar deposit rates downward, with many banks maintaining rates above 3% [3][4]. - The article notes that the average yield on dollar financial products has also decreased, with some products now offering yields above 4%, although this is less common [8][9]. Future Outlook - Economic analysts suggest that further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could influence dollar deposit and investment rates, with potential implications for the Chinese market as well [11][12]. - The article highlights the importance of monitoring market conditions and adjusting investment strategies accordingly, particularly in light of the fluctuating dollar and yuan exchange rates [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple banks have lowered USD deposit interest rates following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, leading to significant differences in rates among banks, prompting consumers to compare options carefully to maximize returns [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first cut since December 2024 [1]. - Following the Fed's announcement, banks like HSBC and Standard Chartered quickly adjusted their USD deposit rates, with HSBC offering 3% for 1-year deposits and 3.5% for 6-month deposits [3]. - Chinese banks have also followed suit, with rates for 1-year USD deposits dropping from a previous high of 5.2% to around 3% [3]. Group 2: Rate Comparison and Consumer Behavior - Consumers are encouraged to compare rates among banks, as even a small difference can lead to significant interest earnings; for example, a 1-year deposit of $50,000 at 3.3% yields $150 more than at 3.0% [4]. - Some smaller banks are still offering competitive rates, such as a city commercial bank with a 6-month USD deposit rate of 3.7% [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Future Expectations - The trend of declining USD deposit rates is expected to continue as the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle, making it unlikely for rates to remain high [2][6]. - Analysts predict further rate cuts by the Fed in upcoming meetings, with potential cumulative cuts of up to 75 basis points by the end of the year [7]. - The average annualized yield for USD wealth management products has decreased from 4.52% in January to 3.79% in September, indicating a clear downward trend in returns [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut on USD deposit rates in China, highlighting the significant differences in rates among various banks and the importance of comparing options for depositors [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first cut since December 2024 [1]. - Following the Fed's announcement, many banks, including HSBC and Standard Chartered, quickly adjusted their USD deposit rates, with HSBC offering 3% for 1-year deposits and Standard Chartered offering rates up to 3.8% for various terms [3]. - Chinese banks have also begun to lower their USD deposit rates, with some previously offering rates as high as 5.2% now reduced to around 3% [3]. Group 2: Rate Comparison and Consumer Behavior - Consumers are encouraged to compare rates among banks, as even a small difference can lead to significant interest earnings; for example, a 1-year deposit of $50,000 at 3.3% yields $150 more than at 3.0% [5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of careful selection in the current environment, as the high-interest window may be closing [7]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Predictions - The market anticipates a continued downward trend in USD deposit rates, with expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in upcoming meetings [7]. - Analysts predict that the average annualized yield for USD financial products has dropped from 4.52% in January to 3.79% in September, indicating a clear downward trajectory [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut in 2025, leading to a downward trend in USD deposit rates across various banks, with differing adjustments based on market competition and bank types [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On September 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut since December 2024, lowering the benchmark rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, with a total reduction of 125 basis points [2]. - Analysts predict further rate cuts, with estimates of two additional 25 basis point reductions in the remaining meetings of the year [2]. Group 2: Bank Responses - HSBC reduced its USD fixed deposit rates on the same day as the Fed's announcement, with rates for 1-month and 6-month deposits dropping to 3.5%, a decrease of 10 and 20 basis points respectively [3]. - Huashang Bank lowered its USD fixed deposit rates by 25 basis points across various terms, with new rates set at 3.75%, 3.85%, and 3.90% for 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month deposits [3]. - Major state-owned banks like ICBC, ABC, and CCB have maintained their USD deposit rates, which remain at 2.2% for 1-month and 2.8% for 1-year and 2-year deposits [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The consensus in the industry is that high-yield USD products will struggle to maintain their attractiveness due to the established rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [2][4]. - The average annualized yield for USD wealth management products has dropped to 3.79%, down from 4.52% earlier in the year, indicating a significant decline in returns [4]. Group 4: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to reassess their asset allocation in light of potential declines in deposit interest rates, considering diversifying into higher-yielding and controlled-risk assets such as bonds and funds [4][5]. - The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on USD assets is highlighted, with potential depreciation of the dollar affecting the value of dollar-denominated investments [5].