Core Viewpoint - The fluctuating exchange rate of the Japanese yen is influenced by the inconsistent statements from the Trump administration regarding tariffs and currency, leading to market participants avoiding directional trading [2][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - Since April, the yen has been oscillating between 140 to 150 yen per dollar, lacking a clear direction due to the mixed signals from the Trump administration on tariffs and currency policy [2]. - The yen appreciated significantly from nearly 160 yen per dollar at the beginning of the year to around 140 yen by April, marking an increase of approximately 20 yen [4]. - As of late May, speculative positions in yen against the dollar had reached historical highs but began to decrease, returning to levels seen in early April [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculative Behavior - Concerns over the outflow of U.S. investment funds have intensified, particularly in response to fears that the Trump administration's aggressive tariff policies could harm the U.S. economy [2]. - The Trump administration's recent softening stance on tariffs, especially in negotiations with China and the EU, has contributed to the volatility in the yen's exchange rate [2][4]. - The upcoming expiration of the suspension of certain tariffs in early July raises questions about future negotiations and their potential impact on the yen's direction [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If the Trump administration continues to weaken its stance on tariffs and the strong dollar, the yen may remain directionless and stuck in a range [6]. - Conversely, if tariff negotiations fail, there is a risk of a repeat of the "triple kill" scenario where stocks, bonds, and the dollar all face selling pressure, potentially leading to further chaos in the yen's exchange rate [6].