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日内跌超3.7%,黄金后市将如何
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-05-13 22:21
Group 1 - Domestic gold recycling institutions have set the lowest price for AU9999 at 755 yuan per gram, while gold stocks have collectively declined, with companies like Western Gold and Sichuan Gold dropping over 3% [1] - Analysts attribute the adjustment in gold prices to the easing of market risk aversion following progress in US-China tariff negotiations, where both sides agreed to cancel a significant portion of tariffs [1] - The US has canceled 91% of additional tariffs and suspended 24% of "reciprocal tariffs," while China has made similar concessions, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite and exerting pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2 - Future gold price movements will largely depend on the pace of global central bank gold purchases, with UBS predicting that central banks will buy approximately 1,000 tons of gold by 2025, maintaining levels similar to the past three years [2] - Investment experts suggest that further upward movement in gold prices may require additional drivers, such as the expansion of the US fiscal and trade deficits, although these may not be strong in the short term due to efforts to reduce these deficits [2] - Domestic investors need to consider exchange rate factors when investing in gold, as the long-term downtrend of the US dollar index may not translate into significant gains for gold priced in RMB [2] Group 3 - On May 12, international gold prices fell sharply, with spot gold hitting a low of $3,215.78 per ounce, a decline of approximately 3.33% [3] - COMEX gold also saw a significant drop, reaching a minimum of $3,219.20 per ounce, with a decline of 3.73% [3] Group 4 - Long-term gold price trends are influenced by multiple factors, including inflation, global central bank gold purchases, and the US debt deficit, with a quantitative model indicating substantial growth potential for gold prices over the next decade [4] - Despite the potential for short-term price corrections due to policy shocks, the fundamental outlook for gold investment remains positive [4] - Analysts from various institutions, including Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, maintain a bullish long-term outlook on gold prices, citing the gradual easing of trade tensions and the weakening global position of the US dollar as key drivers [4]