Core Insights - The U.S. Treasury market has a history of over 200 years and has undergone significant changes, including the formation of the modern bond system and the internationalization post-World War II [3] - The total size of U.S. national debt is projected to reach $28.3 trillion by the end of 2024, nearly doubling since 2017 [4] - The trading volume of U.S. Treasuries has increased by 1.8 times over the past decade, with a diverse investor base comprising overseas investors, the Federal Reserve, and money market funds [5] U.S. Treasury Supply Framework - The issuance of U.S. Treasuries follows two main principles: optimizing the issuance scale across different maturities to minimize expected costs and providing predictable issuance guidance through quarterly refinancing processes [4] - The issuance is also constrained by the debt ceiling, which can lead to significant fluctuations in the Treasury General Account (TGA), increased borrowing costs, and potential credit rating downgrades [4] U.S. Treasury Demand Framework - The trading of U.S. Treasuries primarily occurs in Tokyo, London, and New York, with a daily trading volume that reflects a robust and diverse investor structure [5] - The top three participants in the U.S. Treasury market are overseas investors, the Federal Reserve, and money market funds, collectively accounting for approximately 60% of the market [5] U.S. Treasury Interest Rate Framework - Long-term U.S. Treasury rates are influenced by expected real rates, expected inflation, actual risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums [6] - Recent data indicates that the 10-year Treasury yield is slightly below levels from a year ago, showing a trend of initial decline followed by an increase, with the decline in expected real rates being a primary downward driver [6] - Geopolitical issues and economic changes are expected to challenge inflation risk premiums and expected inflation, potentially reshaping the U.S. Treasury system and the international monetary landscape [6]