Group 1: Energy and Industrial Production - The cumulative power generation of coal-fired power plants increased by 3.1% year-on-year as of March 26, with a cumulative increase of 1.3% for the year[3] - The operating rate of national blast furnaces recorded 79.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.8 percentage points[3] - The average daily crude steel production of key enterprises was 2.019 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%[5] Group 2: Construction and Infrastructure - The construction resumption rate of 10,692 sites nationwide was 62%, a month-on-month increase of 19.5 percentage points, but a year-on-year decrease of 2.62 percentage points[5] - The average cement dispatch rate was 24.4%, a month-on-month increase of 4.9 percentage points, but a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%[6] Group 3: Consumer Market Trends - The average daily transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 10.3% year-on-year, an improvement from a 28.0% decline in February[8] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles from March 1 to 22 decreased by 16.0% year-on-year, an improvement from a 25.4% decline in the previous month[10] Group 4: Renewable Energy and Economic Indicators - The photovoltaic manager index (SMI) recorded 137.9 points, a month-on-month increase of 7.1 percentage points[6] - The average daily number of domestic flights was 13,400, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7%[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term. For nickel, the market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals, and it will likely remain in a range - bound oscillation. For stainless steel, it will follow the nickel price trend and also maintain an oscillatory state due to the influence of macro and policy factors [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 137,080 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 134,780 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 290,411 (- 45,931) lots, and the open interest was 164,700 (- 11,544) lots [1] - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Policywise, the Indonesian export tax and nickel ore quota are still uncertain, but they support the price. Fundamentally, on the supply side, the nickel ore shortage continues, and the price of nickel ore is expected to rise. The supply of nickel iron and refined nickel is sufficient, but the cost is stably supported. The production of MHP is hindered, and the price remains strong. On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel mills has improved, providing stable demand support. In the new - energy sector, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles meet expectations, but it is in the off - season, with limited month - on - month improvement. Ternary batteries contribute a small increase in demand, while downstream enterprises have weak procurement willingness and mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1] Nickel Ore and Spot - According to Mysteel, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore still has room to rise, and the RKAB quota approval progress is slow. The premium of the mainstream pyrometallurgical ore plants is likely to remain stable next month, and some may increase by 1 - 2 dollars/wet ton. The domestic trade ore price still has upward momentum. The price of Philippine nickel ore is weakening, and the traders' quotes are loosening. The 1.3% grade is quoted at 48 - 50 dollars/wet ton, and the CIF receiving price of the 1.4% grade is 71 dollars. Ocean freight may continue to decline, and the cost - side pressure is marginally relieved [2] - The Shanghai nickel price oscillated weakly during the day, and the center of the refined nickel spot price moved slightly downward. The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, while that of other brands remained stable, with sufficient overall supply. Market trading became lighter, and downstream enterprises only made rigid - demand purchases, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient willingness to chase high prices. The implementation of the Indonesian export tax is uncertain, the cost support at the ore end is stable, the domestic refined nickel production is at a high level, and the spot resources are sufficient. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 1,000 yuan/ton to 3,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,858 (+ 685) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 281,526 (- 48) tons [2] Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai nickel will likely maintain a range - bound oscillation. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is to conduct range - based operations. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 31, 2026, the opening price of the main stainless - steel contract was 14,170 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,160 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,510 (- 1,569) lots, and the open interest was 97,783 (- 4,171) lots [3] - Stainless - steel prices mainly follow the nickel price trend and are greatly affected by Indonesian policies and the macro - environment. On the supply side, steel mills maintain high production plans. According to Mysteel statistics, the estimated crude - steel production of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants in March 2026 was 3.6995 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9895 million tons, an increase of 36.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. The planned production in April is 3.6847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption peak season, and downstream demand is stable, but it is mainly on - demand procurement without stockpiling. In April, consumption is expected to continue to recover, orders will ease, and inventory is unlikely to rise, providing bottom support for prices [4] - Although the futures market has weakened, the stainless - steel spot market is generally stable, and traders' quotes mostly remain unchanged. Downstream terminals maintain rigid - demand purchases. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is 14,400 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 270 - 470 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday remained unchanged at 1,083.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - In the short term, stainless - steel will follow the nickel price trend and is expected to maintain an oscillatory state. The recommended strategy for a single - side position is neutral. There are no recommended strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [5]

Market Overview - On March 31, the A-share market experienced a slight correction after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3948 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3891.86 points, down 0.80%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.81% to 13478.06 points[7] - Total trading volume for both markets reached 20,061 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] Sector Performance - Strong performers included automotive services, precious metals, aerospace equipment, and banking sectors[3] - Weaker sectors were coal, wind power equipment, electronic chemicals, and batteries[3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext were 16.21 times and 46.09 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years[3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend, influenced by overseas factors such as potential escalation in Middle East conflicts and U.S. inflation rates[3] - Domestic macroeconomic policies are becoming clearer, providing a solid support base for the market[3] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors like consumer electronics, precious metals, banking, and aerospace equipment for short-term opportunities[3] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected overseas recession impacting domestic recovery, slower-than-expected domestic policy implementation, and macroeconomic disturbances[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical conflicts have disturbed the macro - mainline, putting pressure on gold and silver [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Second Part: Market Review and Prospect - The report presents the disk trends of London gold, London silver, Shanghai gold, and Shanghai silver, with their units being US dollars per ounce, US dollars per ounce, yuan per gram, and yuan per kilogram respectively [12][14] 3.2 Third Part: Macroeconomic Factors - It shows the Turkish central bank's announcement and the US dollar/Turkish lira trend, along with data on official reserve assets in millions of US dollars [21] - The FedWatch data before and after the war (February 27th and March 27th, 2026) are presented, including the conditional meeting probabilities of different interest - rate ranges in various Fed meetings from 2026 to 2027 [26][27] - Information on the average number of new non - farm and ADP employment in the US in March, as well as the structure of new non - farm employment, is provided [31] - The report also shows the US CPI and PPI data [32] 3.3 Fourth Part: Fundamental Factors - Gold supply - demand balance data from 2014 to 2025 are presented, including supply components such as total supply, recycling, and industrial use, and demand components such as jewelry, investment, and central bank purchases. There are also data on the year - on - year changes in 2024 and 2025 [39] - The flow changes of gold ETFs in different regions and the global gold ETF holdings are shown [40] - The inventory data of silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, London LBMA market, and US Comex market are presented, along with the total inventory of four exchanges and the domestic silver premium/discount (against silver T + D) [47][50][51] - The export and import situations of silver in China are shown, including the export and import volumes of unforged silver with a purity of ≥99.99% from 2023 to 2026 [54][56] - The total global silver ETF holdings, the holdings of leading silver ETFs, and the silver lease rate are presented [59][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, and the risk of conflict escalation is rising, leading to continuous upward pressure on oil prices and affecting the prices of related commodities such as fuel oil and LPG [3][4][5] - The PTA market needs to pay attention to geopolitical developments, with downstream load slightly decreasing [8] - The urea market is in a stalemate between policy and supply - demand, with prices expected to be in a high - level consolidation [10] - The methanol market is affected by the tense US - Iran geopolitical relationship, with short - term import shortages difficult to resolve, and prices tend to rise [11] - The soda ash market has weakening demand and large supply - demand pressure, with limited rebound drivers [13] - The glass market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with production cuts continuing [14] - The caustic soda market shows signs of weakening in the spot and export ends [16] - The copper, gold, and silver markets are all expected to be oscillating strongly [17][18][20] 3. Summary by Directory 01 Oil Products Crude Oil - Logic: Geopolitical conflict escalation risk rises, causing continuous upward pressure on oil prices [3] - Fundamentals: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and export disruptions in Russia lead to a tight global crude oil supply. The conflict may extend to the Red Sea, further increasing supply concerns [3] - Macro: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and market expectations for a rate cut are rising. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, and the macro - sentiment is weak [3] Fuel Oil - Logic: The fundamentals provide support, and the cracking has bottomed out [5] - Fundamentals: High - sulfur fuel oil has strong fundamental support, with limited downward space. Low - sulfur fuel oil has tight supply and a strong demand in Asia, and it is expected to maintain a strong operation in the short term [5][6] LPG - Logic: Geopolitical factors repeatedly disturb, and there is still short - term support [7] - Fundamentals: Geopolitical uncertainties drive up international oil prices and LPG prices. Even if the war cools down, the supply shortage will still support prices in the medium term [7] 02 Aromatics - Polyester PTA - Logic: Pay attention to geopolitical developments, and downstream load slightly decreases [8] - Fundamentals: The TA2605 contract is stable, and the trading volume decreases. The spot market is light. Supply increases, but demand decreases, and the production reduction of polyester filament is expanding [9] 03 Coal Chemical Industry Urea - Logic: There is a stalemate between policy and supply - demand, with high - level consolidation [10] - Fundamentals: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The domestic and international price transmission is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [10] Methanol - Logic: The US - Iran geopolitical relationship is tense again, and short - term import shortages are difficult to resolve, with prices tending to rise [11] - Fundamentals: Affected by geopolitical factors, the futures price fluctuates, and the port and inland prices are strong. Short - term import shortages will support high - level operation [11][12] 04 Salt Chemical Industry Soda Ash - Logic: Demand weakens, and supply - demand pressure is large [13] - Fundamentals: The price is weakly stable, the inventory is accumulating, and the new orders slow down. The supply - demand contradiction will continue to increase, and the rebound needs supply - side cuts [13] Glass - Logic: Supply and demand are both weak, and production cuts continue [14] - Fundamentals: The short - term market sentiment cools down, and the supply and demand are in a weak balance. In the medium term, cost pressure increases, and the improvement in real - estate demand may support prices [14][15] Caustic Soda - Logic: The spot price is loose, and the export end shows signs of weakening [16] - Fundamentals: The spot price is marginally weakening, the export order may slow down, and the cost is also affected. The Strait blockade still affects supply, and the future price trend depends on the Strait's opening situation [16] 05 Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Logic: Oscillating strongly [17] - Fundamentals: Upstream mine disturbances and cost support from low processing fees, and long - term demand from the new energy transition are positive factors. If the Middle - East oil price disturbance ends, the macro - pressure may weaken [17] Gold - Logic: Oscillating strongly [18] - Fundamentals: Uncertainties in monetary policy and inflation pressure affect the price. If the Middle - East situation eases and the US dollar weakens, the gold price may rise [18] Silver - Logic: Oscillating strongly [20] - Fundamentals: The market focus is on the Middle - East situation and the Fed's inflation expectations. The price is affected by short - term news events and diplomatic efforts [20] Appendix: Daily Data Monitoring of Each Sector - The daily data monitoring of various sectors includes macro data, futures prices, spot prices, spreads, and other indicators, which reflect the price changes and trends of different commodities such as crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, methanol, copper, gold, and silver [22][23][24][26][27][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, domestic methanol futures showed a volatile decline due to the Spring Festival holiday, geopolitical risks, import contraction, and the pace of downstream resumption. The supply side was the core support, while the demand side was significantly affected by the holiday. The cost side had limited support for methanol. In March, methanol is expected to be treated with a bullish and volatile mindset [8]. - In the second quarter of 2026, the global macro - economy will move forward steadily with policy shifts, demand repair, and risk mitigation. The domestic methanol futures market will enter a stage of supply repair, demand verification, inventory re - balancing, and increased macro - constraints. The price is likely to fluctuate and decline at a high level [124]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2026 Q1 Methanol Futures Trend Review - In Q1 2026, domestic methanol futures showed a unilateral market of low - level volatility and a sharp pulse - like rise in March. The main contract started at around 2,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, fluctuated narrowly from January to February, and soared in March, with a maximum quarterly increase of over 50% [13]. - The core logic of the Q1 market revolved around four main lines: import contraction, high domestic supply with limited elasticity, external - strong and internal - weak demand with rigid support, and a phased relief of inventory pressure. Macro and capital factors amplified the price fluctuations [14]. 3.2 Continued Divergence of the European and American Economies and a Decline in the Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectations - Since 2026, the European and American macro - economies have continued the pattern of a strong US and a weak Europe. The US economy is stable with controllable inflation and resilient employment. The eurozone is in a weak recovery with greater growth pressure [17]. - In Q2, the global macro - economy will enter a stage of converging divergence and mild recovery. The US economy is likely to remain stable, and the eurozone may experience a slight recovery [20]. 3.3 Steady and Positive Development of the Domestic Economy from January to February 2026 - In early 2026, China's macro - economy showed a good start. The production supply recovered steadily, market demand continued to improve, new drivers grew rapidly, and employment and prices were generally stable [33]. - In Q2 2026, China's economy is expected to continue its steady and upward trend, with the growth target of 4.5% - 5.0% more firmly based [36]. 3.4 Slight Increase in China's Coal Imports from January to February 2026 - In early 2026, the domestic coal market showed a pattern of stable domestic supply, high - then - low imports, and weak prices. The coal price decline led to a downward shift in the cost line of methanol, causing the methanol futures to decline [52]. - In Q2, coal prices are likely to continue the "weak and volatile, central - downward" trend, which will continue to suppress the methanol futures [56]. 3.5 Spring Maintenance and Demand Differentiation Lead to a Structural Switch in the Supply Rhythm - In March 2026, domestic methanol device operation was characterized by concentrated spring maintenance, significant regional differentiation, and stable - to - decreasing production. The overall device start - up rate and production decreased [61]. - In Q2, domestic methanol production is expected to show a trend of a slight increase in April and rapid growth from May to June. The annual production is expected to reach 93 - 95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% - 2% [64]. 3.6 Overseas Gas Restrictions and Geopolitics Resonate, Causing a Deep Contraction in Methanol Supply - In Q1 2026, overseas methanol device operation was dominated by the Middle East, with a weak global performance. The supply tightened due to winter gas restrictions, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal maintenance [72]. - In Q1, domestic methanol imports shrank significantly. Import contraction supported the methanol price. In Q2, overseas device operation remains uncertain, and the supply is unlikely to become quickly loose [76]. 3.7 Shrinking Profitability of Coal - to - Methanol in China in March 2026 - In February 2026, the profit of domestic methanol devices was generally weak due to high costs and weak demand. In March, the profit is expected to be marginally repaired and structurally improved [91]. 3.8 The Peak Season of Domestic Methanol Downstream Demand in Q2 - In March 2026, the domestic methanol downstream market entered the spring resumption peak season, with traditional demand fully recovering and olefin demand remaining stable. In Q2, the downstream demand will continue to recover, with traditional and olefin demand driving together [104]. 3.9 Summary - In Q2 2026, the domestic methanol futures market will enter a stage of four - fold game. The supply will be tight with domestic production increasing and imports remaining low. The demand will enter the peak - season repair stage, and the inventory will gradually decline [124]. - The methanol supply - demand will be in a tight balance, but the price will be over - valued and repaired. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level and decline in bands [126].

Economic Indicators - The comprehensive prosperity index in China fell to 100.28, indicating a moderate recovery in the economy but a slowdown in growth[1] - The consumption prosperity index recorded 99.96, slightly below the threshold, showing a slowdown in post-holiday consumption recovery[1] - The investment prosperity index decreased to 100.10, reflecting a stabilization in project advancement after a phase of acceleration[1] - The production prosperity index stood at 100.69, significantly above the threshold, indicating sustained high levels of production activity[1] Industrial Profit Growth - From January to February 2026, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year, benefiting from both volume and price increases[2] - High-end manufacturing became a core driver, with equipment manufacturing profits rising by 23.5% and high-tech manufacturing profits soaring by 58.7%[2] - Over 60% of industries saw profit improvements, with notable rebounds in private enterprises, despite existing external uncertainties and internal structural disparities[2]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after an initial decline, with key sectors such as communication equipment, precious metals, aerospace equipment, and general equipment performing well, while sectors like electricity, insurance, photovoltaic equipment, and public utilities lagged [2][3]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are currently at 16.17 times and 46.38 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][13]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 19,278 billion, which is above the median trading volume of the past three years, indicating robust market activity [3][13]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On March 30, the A-share market showed a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3,872 points and closing at 3,923.29 points, up 0.24% [7]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,726.19 points, down 0.25%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.68% [7]. - Over 60% of stocks in the two markets rose, with notable gains in precious metals, industrial metals, aerospace equipment, and non-ferrous metals [7][9]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to maintain a volatile trend, with investors advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments [3][13]. - Short-term investment opportunities are highlighted in sectors such as communication equipment, precious metals, general equipment, and military electronics [3][13].

Key Insights - The report indicates a significant contraction in credit bond issuance, with a total issuance of 685.49 billion, down 672.33 billion from the previous month, and a net financing amount of 71.1 billion, a decrease of 351.53 billion [4][43] - The average issuance rates for various credit bond types mostly declined, with the range between 3 to 21 basis points, except for AAA-rated short-term bonds which saw an increase of 8 basis points [4][45] - The report highlights a mixed performance in credit risk, with the rolling default rate for February at 0.18%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous month, and no new defaulting entities reported [4][20][22] - The macroeconomic environment remains weak, with the official manufacturing PMI falling to 49.0, indicating contraction, and new orders index dropping to 45.3, reflecting reduced demand [4][33] - The central bank's monetary policy remains accommodative, with a net liquidity injection of 829.5 billion through various operations, including reverse repos and MLF, contributing to a generally loose funding environment [4][34] - The report suggests that the bond market is expected to continue in a "low interest rate, high volatility, and range-bound" pattern, with limited potential for a one-sided trend due to geopolitical risks and supply pressures [4][9] - The credit risk assessment shows that three entities had their ratings upgraded due to strong support capabilities and improved profitability, while three others were downgraded due to declining profitability and increased financial pressure [4][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report The report mainly analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and influencing factors of various commodities in multiple industries, including oil products, aromatics - polyester, coal chemical, salt chemical, and non - ferrous metals. Geopolitical factors, especially the situation between the US and Iran, have a significant impact on the market. The report also provides daily data monitoring for each sector to help investors understand market dynamics [3][6][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Products 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Logic**: Rising US - Iran military risks lead to higher oil prices. - **Fundamentals**: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and attacks in Ukraine limit oil supply, increasing concerns about supply contraction. The resumption of shut - down production capacity is uncertain. - **Macro**: The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged, and market expectations of Fed rate cuts are rising. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense [3]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - **Logic**: Fundamental support and the bottoming of LU cracking. - **Fundamentals**: High - sulfur fuel oil has strong fundamental support despite the retracement of geopolitical premiums. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a tight supply and is expected to remain strong in the short term due to supply - side constraints and increased demand in Asia [6][7]. 3.1.3 LPG - **Logic**: Geopolitical fluctuations provide short - term support. - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical uncertainties drive up LPG prices. Even if the war cools down, the supply shortage in the Middle East cannot be quickly resolved, and LPG prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [8]. 3.2 Aromatics - Polyester 3.2.1 PTA - **Logic**: Pay attention to geopolitical developments, and downstream load slightly decreases. - **Fundamentals**: The TA2605 contract closes higher. The spot market has a general trading atmosphere. PTA load increases, while polyester and related downstream loads decrease. Mainstream polyester filament manufacturers are implementing production cuts [10][11]. 3.3 Coal Chemical 3.3.1 Urea - **Logic**: Support continues, but beware of policy pressure. - **Fundamentals**: Positive overseas sentiment and domestic policy pressure offset each other. Inventory decreases, and prices are expected to remain stable. The market is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term, with support from rigid demand and cost [12]. 3.3.2 Methanol - **Logic**: Tension in US - Iran relations leads to short - term import shortages, making prices easy to rise and difficult to fall. - **Fundamentals**: After Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices rise, boosting the energy - chemical sector. The MA2605 contract hits a new high. Port prices increase, and short - term import shortages support high - level operation [15]. 3.4 Salt Chemical 3.4.1 Soda Ash - **Logic**: Weakening rigid demand and high supply - demand pressure. - **Fundamentals**: Soda ash prices remain weakly stable. Inventory stops decreasing, and new orders slow down. The supply - demand contradiction is expected to intensify, and the possibility of inventory accumulation increases [16]. 3.4.2 Glass - **Logic**: Weak supply and demand, and continued production cuts. - **Fundamentals**: The market sentiment cools down, and the supply - demand is in a weak balance. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is mainly speculative. In the medium term, cost pressure increases, and the support from low supply may increase when demand improves [18]. 3.4.3 Caustic Soda - **Logic**: No new positive drivers. - **Fundamentals**: The spot market shows a state of 50% caustic soda not rising and 32% caustic soda rising. The supply - demand has some support, but there is expected volatility. The impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on supply and demand needs to be continuously monitored [19]. 3.5 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Logic**: Oscillating strongly. - **Fundamentals**: Copper inventory decreases, and upstream mine disturbances and low processing fees support copper prices. The long - term demand from new energy transformation is positive [20]. 3.5.2 Gold - **Logic**: Oscillating strongly. - **Fundamentals**: Uncertainty in monetary policy and the impact of the Middle East situation on the US dollar index. If the US dollar weakens, it may drive up gold prices [22]. 3.5.3 Silver - **Logic**: Oscillating strongly. - **Fundamentals**: The market is highly influenced by Middle East news and Fed inflation expectations. The price trend is uncertain [23]. 3.6 Appendix: Daily Data Monitoring of Each Sector The appendix provides daily data monitoring for each sector, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, urea, methanol, copper, gold, and silver, covering prices, spreads, inventories, and other aspects [26][27][28].