Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, influenced by factors such as the uncertain weather in US soybean - growing regions, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the arrival of imported soybeans. The soybean market is expected to be neutral in the short term, affected by factors like South American soybean harvests, Sino - US trade relations, and domestic supply and demand [10][11]. - The key factors affecting the soybean meal and soybean markets include the weather in US and South American soybean - growing regions, Sino - US trade negotiations, and domestic supply and demand conditions [14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating upwards and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, imported soybean arrivals, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations for pig replenishment. The recent increase in soybean meal demand supports price expectations, and soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. - The domestic soybean meal inventory in oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possible weather speculation in US soybean - growing regions and the uncertainty of the Sino - US tariff war, soybean meal is expected to be bullish and volatile in the short term, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the Sino - US tariff war [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing regions [14]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of imported soybeans in August, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [14]. Soybean - Bullish factors: support from imported soybean costs for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic new - season soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend. The期末库存 and inventory - consumption ratio also fluctuated, with the inventory - consumption ratio reaching 21.98% in 2024 [22]. USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months - From February to August 2025, there were some changes in US soybean harvest area, yield, output, and期末库存, with the output gradually decreasing from 43.66 billion bushels in February to 42.92 billion bushels in August [23]. US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024 - The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, and other growth progress of US soybeans in 2024 were compared with the previous year and the five - year average, showing some differences in different periods [24][25][26]. Brazil and Argentina Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in 2024/25 - The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina in 2024/25 were compared with the previous year and the five - year average, showing different trends in different periods [27][28][29]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - Futures: US soybeans are expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal is expected to be volatile and bullish. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 3000 and 3200 in the short term, and short - term range trading is recommended [17]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybean - Futures: The A2511 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 4000 and 4200, and short - term range trading is recommended [20]. - Options: Wait and see [20]. 7. Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals US Soybean Market - US soybeans are oscillating upwards in the short term, affected by Sino - US trade negotiation progress and relatively good weather. However, the generally good planting weather in US soybean - growing regions suppresses the upward movement of the market. The weather variability in US soybean - growing regions and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war determine the market trend [33]. Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - Imported soybean arrivals: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in August is high but declining, with an overall year - on - year increase [36]. - Oil mill crushing and inventory: The soybean inventory in oil mills is slightly increasing, and the soybean meal inventory is slightly decreasing. The soybean crushing volume in oil mills remains high, and the soybean meal output in June increased year - on - year [37][41]. - Soybean meal transactions: The downstream procurement of soybean meal has declined from a high level, while the pick - up volume remains high [45]. - Pig - farming inventory: Pig inventory is on the rise, sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreasing month - on - month. Pig prices have recently declined after rising, and piglet prices remain weak. Pig - farming profits have recently declined [47][49][53]. Downstream Demand - The demand for soybean meal is affected by factors such as pig - farming demand. Currently, the demand for soybean meal is relatively weak due to the decline in pig - farming profits [56]. 8. Meal Market Structure - The soybean meal futures are oscillating upwards, and the spot price is following, with a high - level spot discount [59]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is weakly oscillating [61]. 9. Technical Analysis Soybean - The soybean futures are weakly oscillating, affected by the US soybean trend and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the market is in a consolidation phase, and the future trend awaits new guidance [66]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures are oscillating upwards, affected by the trends of US soybeans and rapeseed meal and the expected change in domestic demand. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the market is in a short - term adjustment or rebound phase, and the future trend awaits new guidance [69].